Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China: Monetary &amp; Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth</li>
<li>Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first 10 days of October show exports down 15% YoY, imports down 22.8%.</li>
<li>India: Inflation Trends Favor Rate Cuts: Wholesale prices up just 0.1% YoY in September — a stark contrast to &gt;10% in 2022 and flat in 2023.</li>
</ul>


China: Monetary &amp; Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth
Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first 10 days of October show exports down 15% YoY, imports down 22.8%.
India: Inflation Trends Favor Rate Cuts: Wholesale prices up just 0.1% YoY in September — a stark contrast to &gt;10% in 2022 and flat in 2023.


Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 October 2025

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Negotiations between the US and China are not going well, to say the least!</li>
<li>We review the short-term outlook for some of the sectors we focus on.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Negotiations between the US and China are not going well, to say the least!
We review the short-term outlook for some of the sectors we focus on.


OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?</li>
<li>Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on</li>
<li>We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25</li>
</ul>


How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?
Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25


Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes Part 2 - Asian Equities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Chinese onshore markets now on a roll- will it continue?</li>
<li>The fight over critical materials heats up as the rally broadens out</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Chinese onshore markets now on a roll- will it continue?
The fight over critical materials heats up as the rally broadens out


Overview #33 Ignore the Noise, Follow the Money: China’s Next Leg Higher

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.</li>
<li>We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.</li>
<li>An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t <em>always</em> do so.</li>
</ul>


Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.
We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.
An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t always do so.


Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 October 2025

China: Monetary & Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first...

Dr. Jim Walker

OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the fallout from the recent escalation of the trade war

Rikki Malik

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes Part 2 - Asian Equities

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Overview #33 Ignore the Noise, Follow the Money: China’s Next Leg Higher

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the material sector

Rikki Malik

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 17 October 2025

China: Monetary & Trade Indicators Strengthen: September data show broad-based monetary growth Korea: Early Signs of Trade Softness: The first...

Dr. Jim Walker

OV #37 – From Chips to Ships: Markets Rattle as Trade War Escalates

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the fallout from the recent escalation of the trade war

Rikki Malik

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes Part 2 - Asian Equities

​A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

Overview #33 Ignore the Noise, Follow the Money: China’s Next Leg Higher

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the material sector

Rikki Malik

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

​Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...