Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  </li>
<li>In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. </li>
<li>Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  </li>
</ul>


Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  
In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. 
Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  


Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

FineToday Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP)</a>, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$280 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the investment thesis in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/finetoday-holdings-420a-jp-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:204929" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings (420A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$280 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.
I previously discussed the investment thesis in FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.


FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP)</a>, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.  </li>
<li>FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 1H25 revenue.</li>
<li>The investment case rests on top-tier revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, peer-leading FCF generation and manageable leverage. </li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP), a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. It previously pulled an IPO to raise US$500 million in December 2024.  
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 1H25 revenue.
The investment case rests on top-tier revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, peer-leading FCF generation and manageable leverage. 


FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Murakami <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100WQFH.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2025-09-24T07%3A41%3A14Z&amp;se=2030-09-24T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=pBNXCLzc2M2noizmBySiKIgGaALs0RzHJHz3GWVI7jw%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 7.14% ownership ratio in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a>. The average buy-in price of JPY2,070.73 per share is 5.6% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.</li>
<li>Murakami undoubtedly shares Hibiki’s concerns. On 15 September, Hibiki issued an open letter questioning the rationale behind the Board's recommendation of a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO. </li>
<li>With the emergence of Murakami, CVC and the founding family’s options narrow. The need for satisfaction of the precondition buys time, but a bump seems inevitable. </li>
</ul>


Murakami reported a 7.14% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,070.73 per share is 5.6% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
Murakami undoubtedly shares Hibiki’s concerns. On 15 September, Hibiki issued an open letter questioning the rationale behind the Board's recommendation of a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO. 
With the emergence of Murakami, CVC and the founding family’s options narrow. The need for satisfaction of the precondition buys time, but a bump seems inevitable. 


Mandom (4917 JP): Two Is a Company as Murakami Joins the Fray

<ul>
<li>On 15 September, Hibiki Path Advisors issued an <a href="https://www.hibiki-path-advisors.com/en/engagement/post-5029/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">open letter</a> questioning the rationale for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> Board to recommend a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960 per share. </li>
<li>Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki's value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki's criticisms are valid, while others are not.</li>
<li>CVC's initial approach will wait for precondition satisfaction and secure additional irrevocables. However, this is a stopgap measure, and a bump is likely to occur.</li>
</ul>


On 15 September, Hibiki Path Advisors issued an open letter questioning the rationale for the Mandom Corp (4917 JP) Board to recommend a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960 per share. 
Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki's value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki's criticisms are valid, while others are not.
CVC's initial approach will wait for precondition satisfaction and secure additional irrevocables. However, this is a stopgap measure, and a bump is likely to occur.


Mandom (4917 JP): Welcome Activism as Hibiki Takes Issue with the Price

Japan

KOSE Corporation manufactures, retails, and exports cosmetics including make up, skin care, and hair care products.  The Company sells its products in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, and Malaysia.

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Kose Corp (4922 JP)

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Michael Allen

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case

FineToday, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. In this note, I discuss the investment case.

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): Two Is a Company as Murakami Joins the Fray

The tender offer is open from September 26 to November 10 (30 business days). The Board supports the offer and recommends that shareholders tender...

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): Welcome Activism as Hibiki Takes Issue with the Price

Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki's value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki's criticisms are valid, while others are...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

​Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Michael Allen

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that FineToday is fully valued at the IPO price.

Arun George

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPO: The Investment Case

FineToday, a Japanese personal care business, is seeking to raise US$286 million. In this note, I discuss the investment case.

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): Two Is a Company as Murakami Joins the Fray

The tender offer is open from September 26 to November 10 (30 business days). The Board supports the offer and recommends that shareholders tender...

Arun George

Mandom (4917 JP): Welcome Activism as Hibiki Takes Issue with the Price

Hibiki opines that the MBO is being done at the wrong price (Hibiki's value is JPY3,050). Some of Hibiki's criticisms are valid, while others are...

Arun George

Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.