Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

This is a warning insight. It is not actionable per se. It is designed to be informative. The dividend payment ex-dates are confusing. Some people are confusing. This insight hopes to put that right in the safest way possible so investors do not make an error on what will be a one-time 30% dividend.

This is a warning insight. It is not actionable per se. It is designed to be informative. The dividend payment ex-dates are confusing. Some people are confusing. This insight hopes to put that right in the safest way possible so investors do not make an error on what will be a one-time 30% dividend. 

Kunlun Energy (135) - Be Careful Of The Special Div Dates

Last year, the major gas pipeline companies owned by the SOEs all announced they were selling their intercity infrastructure and port offloading and storage operations to a new SOE called PipeChina. A few SOEs signed Sale and Purchase agreements in mid-2020. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> signed theirs in December. For Kunlun, that agreement went through at the end of March. The bulk of the payment should have gone through at the end of April, and When Kunlun reported its earnings in late March, it reported full-year on an ongoing basis with the Discontinued Assets representing a different set of numbers. At that point, Kunlun became an energy distribution company which was primarily a city gas company, and a big pile of cash. As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/osbert-tang-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3879" rel="noopener">Osbert Tang, CFA</a> discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kunlun-energy-135-hk-a-fantastic-1q21-at-kunlun-gas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50930" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas</a> the largest contributor to the remaining business had a "fantastic Q1". Year-on-year results this year were always going to be "good" simply because of the growth from start of year to end of year in 2020. Straightline serial no-growth in 2021 would still have resulted in year-on-year growth, which itself seemed not to be in the minds of analysts looking at the pro-forma post-sale Kunlun. Surprisingly, since the announcement in December that the trade had been done, while Kunlun is up, because others are up just as much, the relative cheapness of Kunlun vs peers has actually increased.Below are data/visualizations suggesting how to look at Kunlun today.

Last year, the major gas pipeline companies owned by the SOEs all announced they were selling their intercity infrastructure and port offloading and storage operations to a new SOE called PipeChina. A few SOEs signed Sale and Purchase agreements in mid-2020. Kunlun Energy (135 HK) signed theirs in December. For Kunlun, that agreement went through at the end of March. The bulk of the payment should have gone through at the end of April, and When Kunlun reported its earnings in late March, it reported full-year on an ongoing basis with the Discontinued Assets representing a different set of numbers. At that point, Kunlun became an energy distribution company which was primarily a city gas company, and a big pile of cash. As Osbert Tang, CFA discussed in Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas the largest contributor to the remaining business had a "fantastic Q1". Year-on-year results this year were always going to be "good" simply because of the growth from start of year to end of year in 2020. Straightline serial no-growth in 2021 would still have resulted in year-on-year growth, which itself seemed not to be in the minds of analysts looking at the pro-forma post-sale Kunlun. Surprisingly, since the announcement in December that the trade had been done, while Kunlun is up, because others are up just as much, the relative cheapness of Kunlun vs peers has actually increased.Below are data/visualizations suggesting how to look at Kunlun today. 

Kunlun Energy (135 HK) Approaching The Special Div - Still The Wrong Price

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

The most important subsidiary and key source of earnings of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> - unlisted Kunlun Gas - reported a fantastic 42.9% YoY growth in earnings for 1Q21. Even relative to 1Q19, the net profit figure is still 30.8% higher. While gross margin contracted YoY, likely due to higher procurement costs, the exciting volume growth has offset the impact of cost inflation, in our view.Kunlun Gas' 1Q21 net profit already equals to 37.5% of its total in last year, indicating a very positive start for FY21. Moreover, it has a very comfortable gearing of 19.5% and good operating cash flow, meaning that there is no need for it to seek funding from parent Kunlun Energy. Hence, Kunlun Energy can pursue more value-enhancing acquisitions through its cash on hand. All in all, the result implies great start for Kunlun Energy in 1Q21 - Kunlun Gas accounted for 72% of Kunlun Energy's net profit from continuing operations in last year.

The most important subsidiary and key source of earnings of Kunlun Energy (135 HK) - unlisted Kunlun Gas - reported a fantastic 42.9% YoY growth in earnings for 1Q21. Even relative to 1Q19, the net profit figure is still 30.8% higher. While gross margin contracted YoY, likely due to higher procurement costs, the exciting volume growth has offset the impact of cost inflation, in our view.Kunlun Gas' 1Q21 net profit already equals to 37.5% of its total in last year, indicating a very positive start for FY21. Moreover, it has a very comfortable gearing of 19.5% and good operating cash flow, meaning that there is no need for it to seek funding from parent Kunlun Energy. Hence, Kunlun Energy can pursue more value-enhancing acquisitions through its cash on hand. All in all, the result implies great start for Kunlun Energy in 1Q21 - Kunlun Gas accounted for 72% of Kunlun Energy's net profit from continuing operations in last year. 

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): A Fantastic 1Q21 at Kunlun Gas

Share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a> has dropped by 12.3% in the last three days after the 7.5% new share placement to raise HK$11.6bn. While there will be EPS dilution over the next two years, we still see EPS growth at a decent level with ROE staying high at 22.8% for FY22F. In fact, the frequent corporate moves recently including exploring hydrogen energy, developing LNG terminal and co-operating with major central SOEs are encouraging developments.Its cooperation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> on hydrogen production and hydrogen refueling station will potentially open a growth driver to capture the numerous opportunities in this rapidly growing market segment. Meanwhile, the construction of LNG terminal will provide it a tighter grip on LNG cost and procurement. We see such strategic and operational developments positive to the long-term well-being of China Gas.

Share price of China Gas Holdings (384 HK) has dropped by 12.3% in the last three days after the 7.5% new share placement to raise HK$11.6bn. While there will be EPS dilution over the next two years, we still see EPS growth at a decent level with ROE staying high at 22.8% for FY22F. In fact, the frequent corporate moves recently including exploring hydrogen energy, developing LNG terminal and co-operating with major central SOEs are encouraging developments.Its cooperation with CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) on hydrogen production and hydrogen refueling station will potentially open a growth driver to capture the numerous opportunities in this rapidly growing market segment. Meanwhile, the construction of LNG terminal will provide it a tighter grip on LNG cost and procurement. We see such strategic and operational developments positive to the long-term well-being of China Gas.  

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Placement, Hydrogen Energy, LNG Terminal and Unicom/Sinopec Co-Ops

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a>'s post-FY20 result conference call revealed that the company sees a stable growth in FY21, with improvement expected for the natural gas, LNG processing and exploration &amp; production (E&amp;P) segments. The company also highlights that the new management that come on board in Nov 2020 will push for more involvement in new energy. Based on our back-of-the-envelope calculation, Kunlun's earnings growth will range between 25-28% in FY21, depending largely on the extent of the turnaround of the E&amp;P segment. On such expectation, we still see Kunlun trades on undemanding 8.8x PER for FY21, with a net cash position even after paying out the special dividends.

Kunlun Energy (135 HK)'s post-FY20 result conference call revealed that the company sees a stable growth in FY21, with improvement expected for the natural gas, LNG processing and exploration &amp; production (E&amp;P) segments. The company also highlights that the new management that come on board in Nov 2020 will push for more involvement in new energy. Based on our back-of-the-envelope calculation, Kunlun's earnings growth will range between 25-28% in FY21, depending largely on the extent of the turnaround of the E&amp;P segment. On such expectation, we still see Kunlun trades on undemanding 8.8x PER for FY21, with a net cash position even after paying out the special dividends.

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-Result Call

Hong Kong

KunLun Energy is an integrated oil and gas service company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. It operates natural gas pipelines, processes and stores liquefied natural gas (LNG), and sells LNG and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) across China. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 1994.

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KunLun Energy (135 HK)

Kunlun Energy (135) - Be Careful Of The Special Div Dates

Kunlun's Special Div is upon us. BE CAREFUL OF YOUR DATES. There appears to be some confusion out there. Check and double check the docs and your...

Travis Lundy