Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Lixil increased operating profit by 15.7% YoY, to ¥20.6bn, compared to consensus estimates for an 18% decline. The stock trades at 80% of book value.</li>
<li>TEPCO earned ¥112bn compared to a consensus forecast of a ¥3bn loss. It trades at 35% of book value.</li>
<li>Lasertec increased EBIT by 122% to ¥47.7bn compared to consensus estimates for ¥27bn, and the stock trading at the lowest multiples relative to Topix in seven years.  </li>
</ul>


Lixil increased operating profit by 15.7% YoY, to ¥20.6bn, compared to consensus estimates for an 18% decline. The stock trades at 80% of book value.
TEPCO earned ¥112bn compared to a consensus forecast of a ¥3bn loss. It trades at 35% of book value.
Lasertec increased EBIT by 122% to ¥47.7bn compared to consensus estimates for ¥27bn, and the stock trading at the lowest multiples relative to Topix in seven years.  


Unloved Japan Round-Up: Some Massive Results Surprises

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Long Lastertec after a solid set of numbers and the easing of concerns raised by the recent Scorpion Capital short sellers report.</li>
<li>Short 6525 Kokusai Electric over continuing concerns over the US upcoming trade restriction announcement in September.</li>
<li>This was previously seen as a dangerous short due to its high outstanding short interest, although it has now unwound to almost zero.</li>
</ul>


Long Lastertec after a solid set of numbers and the easing of concerns raised by the recent Scorpion Capital short sellers report.
Short 6525 Kokusai Electric over continuing concerns over the US upcoming trade restriction announcement in September.
This was previously seen as a dangerous short due to its high outstanding short interest, although it has now unwound to almost zero.


Long 6920 Lasertec Corp | Short 6525 Kokusai Electric

<ul>
<li>Lasertec shares dropped nearly 8% following a scathing 53-page report by Scorpion Capital, accusing management of “colossal fraud.” </li>
<li>The SC report is shrill, in our view, and therefore, we think we add value by contributing a second opinion. </li>
<li>In our view, Lasertec is due for a correction even if SC’s report is inundated by hyperbole.</li>
</ul>


Lasertec shares dropped nearly 8% following a scathing 53-page report by Scorpion Capital, accusing management of “colossal fraud.” 
The SC report is shrill, in our view, and therefore, we think we add value by contributing a second opinion. 
In our view, Lasertec is due for a correction even if SC’s report is inundated by hyperbole.


Lasertec (6920): Some of the Accusations Are Disgraceful, Some Not

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Event-Driven

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a>’s cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>MUFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$19bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding.
MUFG had a stake over US$100m in at least 47 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$19bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


MUFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Taking It Slow

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Lasertec has dropped more than 20% in the past week and a half, but is still selling at more than 60x EPS guidance for FY Jun-24.</li>
<li>Weak orders at ASML, disappointing guidance from TSMC and doubts about Intel's equipment purchases cast doubt on Lasertec's growth potential.</li>
<li>Between December 2021 and June 2022, Lasertec's share price dropped by more than 50%. Wait for Q3 results before reaching for a falling knife. </li>
</ul>


Lasertec has dropped more than 20% in the past week and a half, but is still selling at more than 60x EPS guidance for FY Jun-24.
Weak orders at ASML, disappointing guidance from TSMC and doubts about Intel's equipment purchases cast doubt on Lasertec's growth potential.
Between December 2021 and June 2022, Lasertec's share price dropped by more than 50%. Wait for Q3 results before reaching for a falling knife. 


Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Unloved Japan Round-Up: Some Massive Results Surprises

Lixil, TEPCO, and Lasertec all outperformed consensus estimates with strong operating profits and low stock valuations relative to book value and...

Michael Allen

Long 6920 Lasertec Corp | Short 6525 Kokusai Electric

Long Lasertech after a good set of numbers, Scorpion Capital concerns debunked; Short 6525 Kokusai Electric over continuing concerns over the US...

Andrew Jackson

Lasertec (6920): Some of the Accusations Are Disgraceful, Some Not

Lasertec's shares plummeted 8% after a report accused management of fraud. In our view, the short-seller's report was inundated with inaccuracies...

Michael Allen

MUFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Taking It Slow

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at MUFG (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding. MUFG had a stake of over US$100m...

Sumeet Singh

Lasertec (6920 JP): Further to Fall

Lasertec is down more than 20% but still looks overvalued as weak orders at ASML, disappointing guidance at TSMC and uncertain equipment demand at...

Scott Foster

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Unloved Japan Round-Up: Some Massive Results Surprises

​Lixil, TEPCO, and Lasertec all outperformed consensus estimates with strong operating profits and low stock valuations relative to book value and...

Michael Allen

Long 6920 Lasertec Corp | Short 6525 Kokusai Electric

Long Lasertech after a good set of numbers, Scorpion Capital concerns debunked; Short 6525 Kokusai Electric over continuing concerns over the US...

Andrew Jackson

Lasertec (6920): Some of the Accusations Are Disgraceful, Some Not

​Lasertec's shares plummeted 8% after a report accused management of fraud. In our view, the short-seller's report was inundated with inaccuracies...

Michael Allen

MUFG Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$20bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell, Taking It Slow

Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding notes, in this note we look at MUFG (8306 JP)’s cross-shareholding. MUFG had a stake of over US$100m...

Sumeet Singh

Lasertec (6920 JP): Further to Fall

Lasertec is down more than 20% but still looks overvalued as weak orders at ASML, disappointing guidance at TSMC and uncertain equipment demand at...

Scott Foster

Lixil, TEPCO, and Lasertec all outperformed consensus estimates with strong operating profits and low stock valuations relative to book value and...

Lasertec's shares plummeted 8% after a report accused management of fraud. In our view, the short-seller's report was inundated with inaccuracies...