Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.</li>
<li>It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. </li>
<li>Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.
It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. 
Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.


Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Applied Materials' new Sculpta pattern-shaping tool could greatly reduce demand for EUV mask inspection on a medium- to long-term view. High-NA EUV is likely to do the same.</li>
<li>Lasertec's high valuations are predicated on a multi-year high growth trajectory. That trajectory is now being called into question. </li>
<li>We have cut our FY Jun-25 profit forecast by 32%, but the projected P/E ratio is still 40x. More downside ahead.</li>
</ul>


Applied Materials' new Sculpta pattern-shaping tool could greatly reduce demand for EUV mask inspection on a medium- to long-term view. High-NA EUV is likely to do the same.
Lasertec's high valuations are predicated on a multi-year high growth trajectory. That trajectory is now being called into question. 
We have cut our FY Jun-25 profit forecast by 32%, but the projected P/E ratio is still 40x. More downside ahead.


Lasertec (6920 JP): Negative Potential of Sculpta Not in the Price

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Credo gains read well for connectivity plays but Astera Labs ran out of steam after early pop.</li>
<li>Intel higher still after Apple reportedly signs NDA to explore 18A for the M-series.</li>
<li>Power and industrial semi names led higher by NXP after upbeat comments at UBS conference.</li>
</ul>


Credo gains read well for connectivity plays but Astera Labs ran out of steam after early pop.
Intel higher still after Apple reportedly signs NDA to explore 18A for the M-series.
Power and industrial semi names led higher by NXP after upbeat comments at UBS conference.


Japan Morning Connection: Boeing FCF Back on Track a Good Sign for JP Heavies and CF Makers

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,551m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, Fujikura, Toyoda Gosei, Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsui E&amp;S, Daihen, Sbi, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,551m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, Fujikura, Toyoda Gosei, Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsui E&amp;S, Daihen, Sbi, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 28th): SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>After 2 very poor quarters (revenue decline YoY), 2Q25 revenue increase 93% YoY, net income 137%. The painfully high volatility will not go away. </li>
<li>But Lasertec maintains its FY25 guidance which means that the blowout 2Q25 does not indicate higher growth</li>
<li>The expectation bubble should have completely deflated (SiC for EV, Intel, Samsung). The stock is trading at 18x, at the bottom of its trading range and valuations. Attractive.</li>
</ul>


After 2 very poor quarters (revenue decline YoY), 2Q25 revenue increase 93% YoY, net income 137%. The painfully high volatility will not go away. 
But Lasertec maintains its FY25 guidance which means that the blowout 2Q25 does not indicate higher growth
The expectation bubble should have completely deflated (SiC for EV, Intel, Samsung). The stock is trading at 18x, at the bottom of its trading range and valuations. Attractive.


Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Lasertec (6920 JP): Negative Potential of Sculpta Not in the Price

Potential negative impact of AMAT's Sculpta pattern-shaping tool not yet discounted. High-NA EUV also negative for Lasertec. Forecast cut, but FY...

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connection: Boeing FCF Back on Track a Good Sign for JP Heavies and CF Makers

Memory names took a back seat, while power and industrial semi's were lifted by upbeat comments at a UBS conference. Intel had another strong move...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 28th): SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SBI (8473 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Furukawa Electric (5801 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

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Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Lasertec (6920 JP): Negative Potential of Sculpta Not in the Price

Potential negative impact of AMAT's Sculpta pattern-shaping tool not yet discounted. High-NA EUV also negative for Lasertec. Forecast cut, but FY...

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connection: Boeing FCF Back on Track a Good Sign for JP Heavies and CF Makers

Memory names took a back seat, while power and industrial semi's were lifted by upbeat comments at a UBS conference. Intel had another strong move...

Andrew Jackson

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 28th): SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SBI (8473 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Furukawa Electric (5801 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Lasertec: FY25 Guidance Isn’t Revised up Despite a Blockbuster 2Q25. The Stock Is Attractive.

​Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...

Nicolas Baratte

Lasertec sees massive revenue and net income growth in 2Q25, but high volatility persists and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. Stock trading at...