IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 15 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/latin-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8770:1" rel="noopener">Latin Resources (LRS AU)</a> disclosed a binding offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> at 0.07 PLS share per LRS share, a 66.3% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>The key condition is LRS shareholder approval. No disinterested shareholder holds the 25% blocking stake, and low retail ownership lowers the headcount test risk. </li>
<li>The Salinas definitive feasibility study, expected in September, provides option value. A strong result could draw a competing offer or force PLS into sweetening terms.  </li>
</ul>


On 15 August, Latin Resources (LRS AU) disclosed a binding offer from Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) at 0.07 PLS share per LRS share, a 66.3% premium to the undisturbed price. 
The key condition is LRS shareholder approval. No disinterested shareholder holds the 25% blocking stake, and low retail ownership lowers the headcount test risk. 
The Salinas definitive feasibility study, expected in September, provides option value. A strong result could draw a competing offer or force PLS into sweetening terms.  


Latin Resources (LRS AU): Pilbara Minerals’ All-Scrip Offer

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 16th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Pro Medicus, Seek, Goodman, Endeavour, BHP, Fortescue, Flight Centre.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 16th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Pro Medicus, Seek, Goodman, Endeavour, BHP, Fortescue, Flight Centre.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 16th): Pro Medicus, Seek, Goodman, Endeavour, BHP, Fortescue

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.
There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.
Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX</a> and 14 adds/10 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>The largest impact is expected on the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> while flows are large among changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index too.</li>
<li>There has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for most stocks but there are a few where there has been a spike recently.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX and 14 adds/10 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index in March.
The largest impact is expected on the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) while flows are large among changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index too.
There has been a steady increase in cumulative excess volume for most stocks but there are a few where there has been a spike recently.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

<ul>
<li>With two days left in the review period, there could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.</li>
<li>There is nearly A$1bn to sell in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> due to the potential S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index deletion and a large decrease in the number of shares held in Australia.</li>
<li>There could be 2-41 days of ADV to buy in the index inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.7-24 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


With two days left in the review period, there could be 28 adds/deletes across the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in March.
There is nearly A$1bn to sell in Newmont (NEM AU) due to the potential S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index deletion and a large decrease in the number of shares held in Australia.
There could be 2-41 days of ADV to buy in the index inclusions while the impact on the deletions will range between 0.7-24 days of ADV.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Newmont Still Has Nearly A$1bn to Sell

Australia

Latin Resources Ltd is Perth Australia based, Iron Ore and Gold focused exploration and development company. The Company was formed as a vehicle to explore and develop mineral concessions.

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Latin Resources (LRS AU)