Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 11th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent, China Mobile, Innovent Bio, Zijin Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 11th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent, China Mobile, Innovent Bio, Zijin Mining.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 11th): Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Despite a pre-buying effect in 2024, we expect China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) sales volume to be still resilient in 2025.</li><li>We also project new-energy vehicle (NEV) market share to reach 57.8% in 2025E on a retail basis, which could make NEVs become mainstream in most price segments.</li><li>While some key themes including competition and the rising importance of new models are likely to continue in 2025, we also need to be prepared for new trends.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite a pre-buying effect in 2024, we expect China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) sales volume to be still resilient in 2025.We also project new-energy vehicle (NEV) market share to reach 57.8% in 2025E on a retail basis, which could make NEVs become mainstream in most price segments.While some key themes including competition and the rising importance of new models are likely to continue in 2025, we also need to be prepared for new trends.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 2025 Outlook: Likely a replica of 2024, but more

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 11th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Bilibili (9626 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Bidu (9888 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Bilibili (9626 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Sep 11th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Bilibili (9626 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Bidu (9888 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Bilibili (9626 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 11th): Bilibili, Tencent, Bidu

<ul><li>We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat investors’ expectation.</li><li>We expect Great Wall’s 3Q24 earnings to be resilient and at a similar level as 2Q24. Although both Xpeng and NIO launched competitive new models in 3Q24, we do not expect their net losses to narrow QoQ as the increase in gross profits may not be able to cover the R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses growth.</li><li>As valuation becomes less attractive now, we prefer automakers with more solid earnings, such as Geely and Li Auto. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat investors’ expectation.We expect Great Wall’s 3Q24 earnings to be resilient and at a similar level as 2Q24. Although both Xpeng and NIO launched competitive new models in 3Q24, we do not expect their net losses to narrow QoQ as the increase in gross profits may not be able to cover the R&amp;D and SG&amp;A expenses growth.As valuation becomes less attractive now, we prefer automakers with more solid earnings, such as Geely and Li Auto. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 3Q Earnings Preview: Leading Players to Beat

<ul><li>We summarize the Sep 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Aug 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Sep 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.3ppts MoM in Sep, based on our calculations, mainly driven by German and Chinese brands. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Sep 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Aug 2024 retail sales volume for each model, as Sep 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The industrywide average discounts widened by 0.3ppts MoM in Sep, based on our calculations, mainly driven by German and Chinese brands. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Stable Discounts Imply Resilient 3Q Earnings

China

Li Auto Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles, including extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Their product line includes multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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Li Auto (2015 HK)

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 11th): Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Smic, Bidu, Hua Hong Semi, Zj Innolight, Xiaomi, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Auto - 2025 Outlook: Likely a replica of 2024, but more

While some key themes including competition and the rising importance of new models are likely to continue in 2025, we also need to be prepared for...

CMB International

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Sep 11th): Bilibili, Tencent, Bidu

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Bilibili (9626 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Auto - 3Q Earnings Preview: Leading Players to Beat

We expect 3Q24 earnings of some leading Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely and Li Auto to rise substantially from 2Q24, which could beat...

CMB International

Auto - Stable Discounts Imply Resilient 3Q Earnings

We summarize the Sep 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report. Note that such discounts for each automaker are...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)