Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.</li>
<li>In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.</li>
<li>This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Mahindra &amp; Mahindra: M&amp;M Q4FY24 PAT at INR 21.6bn beat our estimate of INR 17.9bn, aided by better realisation and soft commodity prices</li><li>M&amp;M has shared its investment plan for FY25-27</li><li>The total investment planned in the auto division is INR 270bn, of which INR 85bn is for SUV ICE, INR 40bn for CV, and sustenance investment of INR 15bn</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahindra &amp; Mahindra: M&amp;M Q4FY24 PAT at INR 21.6bn beat our estimate of INR 17.9bn, aided by better realisation and soft commodity pricesM&amp;M has shared its investment plan for FY25-27The total investment planned in the auto division is INR 270bn, of which INR 85bn is for SUV ICE, INR 40bn for CV, and sustenance investment of INR 15bnContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Mahindra & Mahindra, Infoedge, Berger Paints, LIC Housing Finance

<ul><li>LIC Housing Finance: LICHF’s earnings were ahead of our estimates due to sustained healthy NIMs, partially offset by muted loan growth (+5% YoY) and high credit costs (60bps)</li><li>LICHF’s NIMs continued to surprise positively at 3% (-4bps QoQ) due to muted balance sheet growth, however, the lower incremental spreads amidst elevated competitive intensity, moderation in demand and rising cost of funds are likely to normalise margins near steady state during FY25</li><li>Loan growth remains tepid (+5% YoY) across segments due to organisational and tech changes as per management and remains a key concern</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

LIC Housing Finance: LICHF’s earnings were ahead of our estimates due to sustained healthy NIMs, partially offset by muted loan growth (+5% YoY) and high credit costs (60bps)LICHF’s NIMs continued to surprise positively at 3% (-4bps QoQ) due to muted balance sheet growth, however, the lower incremental spreads amidst elevated competitive intensity, moderation in demand and rising cost of funds are likely to normalise margins near steady state during FY25Loan growth remains tepid (+5% YoY) across segments due to organisational and tech changes as per management and remains a key concernContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: LIC Housing Finance, BSE, Century Plyboards India

<ul><li>Tata Motors: JLR Q2 margins declined 140bps QoQ to 14.9% due to adverse mix, higher VME + FME and this was despite higher capitalization rate</li><li>India PV and CV margins improved over 100bps QoQ, largely due to improved volumes and soft input costs</li><li>While FY24 is an operationally strong year for JLR, we expect it to face multiple headwinds from FY25, which include: 1) demand uncertainty in key regions, 2) normalization of mix, 3) rise in VME + FME as it moves from “demand pull” to “sales push mode”, 4) need to raise capex at a time when margins may not be supportive</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tata Motors: JLR Q2 margins declined 140bps QoQ to 14.9% due to adverse mix, higher VME + FME and this was despite higher capitalization rateIndia PV and CV margins improved over 100bps QoQ, largely due to improved volumes and soft input costsWhile FY24 is an operationally strong year for JLR, we expect it to face multiple headwinds from FY25, which include: 1) demand uncertainty in key regions, 2) normalization of mix, 3) rise in VME + FME as it moves from “demand pull” to “sales push mode”, 4) need to raise capex at a time when margins may not be supportiveContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Tata Motors, Britannia Industries, Dabur, Hero Motocorp

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

India

LIC Housing Finance Limited provides housing finance services to individuals for purchase, construction, repair and renovation of new or existing flats and houses. The Company also provides finance on existing property for business, personal needs and gives loans to professionals for purchase, construction of clinics, nursing homes, diagnostic centers, and office space throughout India.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Mahindra & Mahindra, Infoedge, Berger Paints, LIC Housing Finance

Mahindra & Mahindra: M&M Q4FY24 PAT at INR 21.6bn beat our estimate of INR 17.9bn, aided by better realisation and soft commodity...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: LIC Housing Finance, BSE, Century Plyboards India

LIC Housing Finance: LICHF’s earnings were ahead of our estimates due to sustained healthy NIMs, partially offset by muted loan growth (+5% YoY)...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Tata Motors, Britannia Industries, Dabur, Hero Motocorp

Tata Motors: JLR Q2 margins declined 140bps QoQ to 14.9% due to adverse mix, higher VME + FME and this was despite higher capitalization rate

HDFC Securities

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)