Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our 2022 earnings thesis largely worked: FY12/2021-FY12/2025 profit compounded about 15% annually while adjusted EBITDA margins remained above 66%.</li>
<li>What we underestimated was regulatory and geographic complexity: by Q2 FY12/2026, only 49% of revenue was classified as regulated by player IP.</li>
<li>The next phase depends on renewed organic growth, better regulated-market monetization, and whether large buybacks can convert resilient cash generation into stronger per-share compounding.</li>
</ul>


Our 2022 earnings thesis largely worked: FY12/2021-FY12/2025 profit compounded about 15% annually while adjusted EBITDA margins remained above 66%.
What we underestimated was regulatory and geographic complexity: by Q2 FY12/2026, only 49% of revenue was classified as regulated by player IP.
The next phase depends on renewed organic growth, better regulated-market monetization, and whether large buybacks can convert resilient cash generation into stronger per-share compounding.


Evolution Four Years Later: The Earnings Thesis Worked. The Multiple Did Not.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Investors see value in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. Many are concerned TICO and TM will deliberately engage in bad corporate governance to punish minorities if the Offer doesn't go through.</li>
<li>It's doubtful an international tribunal has the clout to overturn <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a>'s Supreme Court decision. The safe takeaway here is that this entire construct won't be concluded anytime soon.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a>'s divergence with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> is a curious thing. Is a statutory merger in the wings?</li>
</ul>


Investors see value in Toyota Industries (6201 JP). Many are concerned TICO and TM will deliberately engage in bad corporate governance to punish minorities if the Offer doesn't go through.
It's doubtful an international tribunal has the clout to overturn CKH (1 HK)'s Supreme Court decision. The safe takeaway here is that this entire construct won't be concluded anytime soon.

Melco International Development (200 HK)'s divergence with Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) is a curious thing. Is a statutory merger in the wings?


Last Week In Event SPACE: CKH, Toyota Industries, Melco, Rio/Glencore, Guoco

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. </li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$317mn into "Diversified Meals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$433mn out of "Coal &amp; Consumable Fuels". </li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this (soon-to-be-regular) weekly report include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp (LYC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domino-s-pizza-enterprises" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:700:1" rel="noopener">Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amcor-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:674:1" rel="noopener">Amcor (AMC AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boss-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4823:1" rel="noopener">Boss Energy (BOE AU)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. 
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$317mn into "Diversified Meals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$433mn out of "Coal &amp; Consumable Fuels". 
Companies mentioned in this (soon-to-be-regular) weekly report include Lynas Corp (LYC AU), Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US), Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP AU), Amcor (AMC AU), and Boss Energy (BOE AU).  


Aussie Shorts (23rd Jan 2026): Lynas, Light & Wonder, Domino's Pizza, Amcor, Boss Energy

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a> will be delisted at the close of tomorrow US time (two trading days left) and shares converted to Australian CDIs.</li>
<li>After studying the matter we have amended our assumptions on how flows work. More net selling than expected in November, irksome uncertainy in December, more buyback flows in the meantime.</li>
<li>The stock was higher on earnings in Australia, skipped a day, then skipped another day, then jumped in the US yesterday. </li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US) will be delisted at the close of tomorrow US time (two trading days left) and shares converted to Australian CDIs.
After studying the matter we have amended our assumptions on how flows work. More net selling than expected in November, irksome uncertainy in December, more buyback flows in the meantime.
The stock was higher on earnings in Australia, skipped a day, then skipped another day, then jumped in the US yesterday. 


[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting Event - Updating The Assumptions/Estimates

Mandarin Oriental International / Event-Driven

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

<ul>
<li>It's fair bet <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Matheson (JM SP)</a> opted for a Scheme for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP)</a> to avoid a repeat of the appraisal rights afforded <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic (JS SP)</a>'s dissentient shareholders.</li>
<li>On <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU/LNW US)</a> giving up its US listing, short the Aussie line at A$124+ or the US line at US$79+. Expect more pressure early this week. </li>
<li>Qatar Airways books a loss on its eight-yar investment as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> moves to take out its 9.57% stake. </li>
</ul>


It's fair bet Matheson (JM SP) opted for a Scheme for Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) to avoid a repeat of the appraisal rights afforded Jardine Strategic (JS SP)'s dissentient shareholders.
On Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU/LNW US) giving up its US listing, short the Aussie line at A$124+ or the US line at US$79+. Expect more pressure early this week. 
Qatar Airways books a loss on its eight-yar investment as Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) moves to take out its 9.57% stake. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Mandarin Oriental, Light & Wonder, Cathay Pacific, DeNA

United States

Light & Wonder Inc. provides gambling products and services. The Company creates content and products for land-based casino gaming, social, and digital organizations. Light & Wonder serves customers worldwide.

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Light & Wonder (LNW US)

Evolution Four Years Later: The Earnings Thesis Worked. The Multiple Did Not.

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Urbem Capital

Last Week In Event SPACE: CKH, Toyota Industries, Melco, Rio/Glencore, Guoco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Shorts (23rd Jan 2026): Lynas, Light & Wonder, Domino's Pizza, Amcor, Boss Energy

Companies mentioned in this (soon-to-be-regular) weekly report include Lynas Corp (LYC AU), Light & Wonder (LNW US), Domino's Pizza Enterprises...

David Blennerhassett

[Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting Event - Updating The Assumptions/Estimates

The company announced a change in buyback pace which is meaningful. A large holder bought a little more. Index treatment appears to have more US...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Mandarin Oriental, Light & Wonder, Cathay Pacific, DeNA

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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