Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

China Gold International Resources / Index Rebalance

China Gold International Resources (2099 HK)

<ul>
<li>Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gold-international-resources" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26130:1" rel="noopener">China Gold International Resources (2099 HK)</a> over the last couple of months.</li>
<li>The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gold-international-resources" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26130:1" rel="noopener">China Gold International Resources (2099 HK)</a> trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.</li>
</ul>


Rising gold prices have led to a sharp rally in China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) over the last couple of months.
The significantly higher market cap and free float market cap should lead to the inclusion of the stock in a global index in November.

China Gold International Resources (2099 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and price to book. A continuation of the gold rally and index inclusion are positives.


China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In my <a href="https://skr.ma/BdEuy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June note</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK)</a> appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! </li>
<li>A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  </li>
<li>However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. </li>
</ul>


In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since! 
A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.  
However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off. 


Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact. </li>
<li>This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. </li>
<li>There are several expected ADDs/DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event. There will also be flows for the other index members due to capping.</li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact. 
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. 
There are several expected ADDs/DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event. There will also be flows for the other index members due to capping.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way

Industrias Penoles, S.A.B. De C.V. / Index Rebalance

Industrias Penoles, S.A.B. De C.V. (PE&OLES* MM EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. </li>
<li>This index is reviewed semi-annually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. We like it because a lot of money tracks it.</li>
<li>There are several potential ADDs/DELs for the Index Rebal Event in September 2025 but as yet most are Medium Conviction. There are a couple of large capping flows expected. </li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
This index is reviewed semi-annually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. We like it because a lot of money tracks it.
There are several potential ADDs/DELs for the Index Rebal Event in September 2025 but as yet most are Medium Conviction. There are a couple of large capping flows expected. 


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebalance Predictions: Flow Expectations

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha simulated portfolio returned 0.97% in March outperforming its benchmark by 1.1%.  Since inception the portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 8% to 11%.</li>
<li>The portfolio has generated alpha while maintaining a correlation of 0.8 and a beta of 1.05.  The HK Alpha portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>On 3/31/25 we sold <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-securities-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:463:1" rel="noopener">Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a></li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha simulated portfolio returned 0.97% in March outperforming its benchmark by 1.1%.  Since inception the portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 8% to 11%.
The portfolio has generated alpha while maintaining a correlation of 0.8 and a beta of 1.05.  The HK Alpha portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
On 3/31/25 we sold Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK) , Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK) , Sands China (1928 HK) , and Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)


Hong Kong

Lingbao Gold Group is a comprehensive gold enterprise primarily engaged in gold mining, smelting, and refining, producing gold bullion, silver, copper products, and sulphuric acid. The company also engages in the sale of mineral products, jewelry, and mine engineering. It was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in China.

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Lingbao Gold Group (3330 HK)

China Gold Intl (2099 HK): Gold Rally & Upcoming Global Index Inclusion

China Gold should be added to a global index in November. The stock trades cheaper than peers. There is positioning but strong gold prices and...

Brian Freitas

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

I can envisage a market cap of US$20-25bn. Maybe US$30bn if pushing PER or EV/EBITDA metrics. $40bn appears unhinged. I'd be shorting Zijin Mining...

David Blennerhassett

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way

The MV Junior Gold Miners Index is an interesting rebal mostly because there is capping, and there are deletions both up and down. Names get...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebalance Predictions: Flow Expectations

The semi-annual index rebalance for the MV Junior Gold Miners Index will take place in September. There are several potential ADDs/DELs. So far all...

Travis Lundy

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (March 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned 0.97% in March outperforming its benchmark by 1.1%. Since inception the portfolio has outperformed Hong...

David Mudd

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