Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the S&amp;P 500 held near 2,450. While the bulls remain in control in the short-term, we continue to believe the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods and remains vulnerable -- particularly as Wall Street sentiment has flipped bullish. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the S&amp;P 500 held near 2,450. While the bulls remain in control in the short-term, we continue to believe the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods and remains vulnerable -- particularly as Wall Street sentiment has flipped bullish. In today’s report we highlight attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Still In Driver’s Seat, But For How Long?

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&amp;P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential areas where this rally could run into resistance. After this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of the initial low - and there is often an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine?) we are of the belief that a test of this initial low (likely 2-12 weeks out) and potentially an undercut of roughly 10% are likely.

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&amp;P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential areas where this rally could run into resistance. After this type of major waterfall decline there is often a test of the initial low - and there is often an undercut of the initial low. Barring approval of a first-line therapy for COVID-19 (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine?) we are of the belief that a test of this initial low (likely 2-12 weeks out) and potentially an undercut of roughly 10% are likely.

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Omada Health is expected to IPO this week. The company’s amended prospectus puts the expected price range per share at $18 to $20, implying a market cap of ~$1.1B.</li>
<li>Omada Health is a virtual-first healthcare provider, supporting people with chronic conditions: prediabetes, diabetes (T2D), hypertension, obesity and musculoskeletal.</li>
<li>A digital care provider stayed private for longer. Its direct competitor, Livongo Health, went public in 2019 and was acquired by Teladoc Health for ~$18.5B in 2020.</li>
</ul>


Omada Health is expected to IPO this week. The company’s amended prospectus puts the expected price range per share at $18 to $20, implying a market cap of ~$1.1B.
Omada Health is a virtual-first healthcare provider, supporting people with chronic conditions: prediabetes, diabetes (T2D), hypertension, obesity and musculoskeletal.
A digital care provider stayed private for longer. Its direct competitor, Livongo Health, went public in 2019 and was acquired by Teladoc Health for ~$18.5B in 2020.


Omada Health IPO: Stayed Private For Longer, Modest Upside Potential

<ul>
<li>Beta Bionics, a high-growth medtech company and developer of an integrated bionics pancreas system called iLet, filed for an IPO in the United States.</li>
<li>Maker of insulin delivery device cleared by the FDA offers 7.5M shares at a price range between $14.00 and $16.00 per share.</li>
<li>With the most recent S-1/A, Beta Bionics plans to raise ~$122M at the high end of range at $16.00 per share, including a concurrent private placement.</li>
</ul>


Beta Bionics, a high-growth medtech company and developer of an integrated bionics pancreas system called iLet, filed for an IPO in the United States.
Maker of insulin delivery device cleared by the FDA offers 7.5M shares at a price range between $14.00 and $16.00 per share.
With the most recent S-1/A, Beta Bionics plans to raise ~$122M at the high end of range at $16.00 per share, including a concurrent private placement.


Beta Bionics IPO: Will The Innovative MedTech Company Repeat The Success of Livongo Health?

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

SPAC <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healthcare-merger-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29273:1" rel="noopener">Healthcare Merger Corp (HCCO US)</a> 's pending merger with SOC Telemed, a leader in high acute telemedicine looks like another good wave to catch by SPAC investors. As we highlighted in our Insight published on September 3, 2020 - MergerTalk: SPACs May Have Become The Hot New Trend, But SPAC Investment Requires A Health Warning - the majority of these SPAC merger transactions have turned out to be poor investments. In that piece, we argued for selectivity and caution.  Of the winners, it appears that investors are most excited about transactions in “emerging” trends such as green mobility or pandemic resistant areas such as online gaming and packaged/healthy foods. We would add the Telehealth industry as another emerging trend that has garnered investor enthusiasm this year.While we have seen a couple of successful direct Telehealth IPOs this year, and a sizeable and high priced merger transaction in the sector  involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teladoc-health-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14233:1" rel="noopener">Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC US)</a> and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/livongo-health-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28714:1" rel="noopener">Livongo Health Inc (LVGO US)</a>, the pending HCCO/SOC Telemed merger is the first of its kind in the SPAC investment space.  We believe that this somewhat differentiated Telehealth situation has the ingredients to join the exclusive club of winning SPAC related transactions. We detail our case for HCCO/SOC Telemed  as an attractive investment proposition below.

SPAC Healthcare Merger Corp (HCCO US) 's pending merger with SOC Telemed, a leader in high acute telemedicine looks like another good wave to catch by SPAC investors. As we highlighted in our Insight published on September 3, 2020 - MergerTalk: SPACs May Have Become The Hot New Trend, But SPAC Investment Requires A Health Warning - the majority of these SPAC merger transactions have turned out to be poor investments. In that piece, we argued for selectivity and caution.  Of the winners, it appears that investors are most excited about transactions in “emerging” trends such as green mobility or pandemic resistant areas such as online gaming and packaged/healthy foods. We would add the Telehealth industry as another emerging trend that has garnered investor enthusiasm this year.While we have seen a couple of successful direct Telehealth IPOs this year, and a sizeable and high priced merger transaction in the sector  involving Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC US) and  Livongo Health Inc (LVGO US), the pending HCCO/SOC Telemed merger is the first of its kind in the SPAC investment space.  We believe that this somewhat differentiated Telehealth situation has the ingredients to join the exclusive club of winning SPAC related transactions. We detail our case for HCCO/SOC Telemed  as an attractive investment proposition below.

MergerTalk: Healthcare Merger/SOC Telemed-Why This Deal Can Join The Exclusive SPAC Winners Club

United States

Livongo Health, Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company develops applied health signals for the treatment of chronic health conditions. Livongo Health serves patients in the United States.

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Livongo Health Inc (LVGO US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Still In Driver’s Seat, But For How Long?

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equities: Test Of The Lows Coming?

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential...

Vermilion Research

Omada Health IPO: Stayed Private For Longer, Modest Upside Potential

Omada Health, a virtual healthcare provider for chronic conditions, set to IPO with expected price range of $18 to $20 per share, aiming for a...

Andrei Zakharov

Beta Bionics IPO: Will The Innovative MedTech Company Repeat The Success of Livongo Health?

Beta Bionics, a developer of bionic pancreas system called iLet, is expected to IPO next week. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation and...

Andrei Zakharov

MergerTalk: Healthcare Merger/SOC Telemed-Why This Deal Can Join The Exclusive SPAC Winners Club

$nealth

Robert Sassoon

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U.S. Equity Strategy: Bulls Still In Driver’s Seat, But For How Long?

Continued encouraging COVID-19 news and accommodative moves by the Fed have allowed the bulls to remain in control while short-term support on the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equities: Test Of The Lows Coming?

Now that the initial/primary low has been established and with the S&P 500 roughly 20% off the lows, we believe it is time to map out potential...

Vermilion Research

Omada Health IPO: Stayed Private For Longer, Modest Upside Potential

​Omada Health, a virtual healthcare provider for chronic conditions, set to IPO with expected price range of $18 to $20 per share, aiming for a...

Andrei Zakharov

Beta Bionics IPO: Will The Innovative MedTech Company Repeat The Success of Livongo Health?

Beta Bionics, a developer of bionic pancreas system called iLet, is expected to IPO next week. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation and...

Andrei Zakharov

MergerTalk: Healthcare Merger/SOC Telemed-Why This Deal Can Join The Exclusive SPAC Winners Club

$nealth

Robert Sassoon

Omada Health, a virtual healthcare provider for chronic conditions, set to IPO with expected price range of $18 to $20 per share, aiming for a...