HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's IPO market has gathered momentum lately, especially with the overwhelming response to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>. Consumer IPOs are the next ones to gather interest. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44279:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Co (FHF HK)</a> is the most imminent one, potentially seeking up to US$1bn. Without significant peers in Hong Kong, it should attract good attention.</li>
<li>The other interesting ones include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhou-liu-fu-jewellery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43706:1" rel="noopener">Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/three-squirrels" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45113:1" rel="noopener">Three Squirrels (TRS HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd-f3283290-a611-4cb4-8857-93101786e283" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45048:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (EBG HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's IPO market has gathered momentum lately, especially with the overwhelming response to CATL (3750 HK). Consumer IPOs are the next ones to gather interest. 

Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food Co (FHF HK) is the most imminent one, potentially seeking up to US$1bn. Without significant peers in Hong Kong, it should attract good attention.
The other interesting ones include Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (1716396D CH), Three Squirrels (TRS HK), and Eastroc Beverage Group (EBG HK). 


HK Strategy: Some Consumer IPO Pipelines and Their Proxies

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chinese Real Estate prices have been the major driver of the Chinese stock market slump, but the fall seemed to stop. </li>
<li>Recently sworn-in President Trump is no longer considered an enemy of China, and his tariff punishment will no longer be across the board but more selective. </li>
<li>A few stocks in Hong Kong listing that trade at lower PE multiples to the dividend yield, indicating the undemanding valuation to obtain yield. </li>
</ul>


Chinese Real Estate prices have been the major driver of the Chinese stock market slump, but the fall seemed to stop. 
Recently sworn-in President Trump is no longer considered an enemy of China, and his tariff punishment will no longer be across the board but more selective. 
A few stocks in Hong Kong listing that trade at lower PE multiples to the dividend yield, indicating the undemanding valuation to obtain yield. 


Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Obvious policy efforts are being made to drive consumption and improve consumer confidence.</li>
<li>Previous attempts have resulted in increased savings but policy direction has changed</li>
<li>Beaten-Up consumer names have a good risk-reward at this stage</li>
</ul>


Obvious policy efforts are being made to drive consumption and improve consumer confidence.
Previous attempts have resulted in increased savings but policy direction has changed
Beaten-Up consumer names have a good risk-reward at this stage


China Crosses the Rubicon - Direct Payments to Kickstart Consumption

Equity Bottom-Up

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> reported a weaker-than-expected FY24 net profit. Despite having HK$2.2bn net cash, the lack of a special dividend is even more disappointing. </li>
<li>Surge in unrealised loss on gold loans and a YoY contraction in margin have contributed to the poor 2H24 result. Apr-May operating figures showed a deteriorated operating environment.</li>
<li>Lacking a special dividend, CTF no longer looks attractive at the current level. Overoptimistic FY25 and FY26 consensus forecasts mean earnings downgrade pressure. </li>
</ul>



Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) reported a weaker-than-expected FY24 net profit. Despite having HK$2.2bn net cash, the lack of a special dividend is even more disappointing. 
Surge in unrealised loss on gold loans and a YoY contraction in margin have contributed to the poor 2H24 result. Apr-May operating figures showed a deteriorated operating environment.
Lacking a special dividend, CTF no longer looks attractive at the current level. Overoptimistic FY25 and FY26 consensus forecasts mean earnings downgrade pressure. 


Luk Fook Holdings Intl / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>March Same-Store sales in China disappoint mainly due to diamond jewellery demand</li>
<li>Overall, gold demand in China continues to rise both in the retail and the official sector</li>
<li>Visitor arrivals to Hong Kong pick up but are still ~40% below pre-Covid levels.</li>
</ul>


March Same-Store sales in China disappoint mainly due to diamond jewellery demand
Overall, gold demand in China continues to rise both in the retail and the official sector
Visitor arrivals to Hong Kong pick up but are still ~40% below pre-Covid levels.


Hong Kong

Luk Fook Holdings (International) Limited retails jewellery. The Company engages in the sourcing, designing, wholesaling and retailing of a variety of platinum and gold jewellery, gold ornaments, gem-set jewellery, natural jadeites, gemstones, and other related products. Luk Fook offers its products in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Macau, Singapore, the United States and Canada.

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Luk Fook Holdings Intl (590 HK)

HK Strategy: Some Consumer IPO Pipelines and Their Proxies

HK's IPO market gains momentum with CATL leading the way. Consumer IPOs like Foshan Haitian are next in line, attracting attention. Others include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China: Revival 2.0?

Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.

Henry Soediarko

China Crosses the Rubicon - Direct Payments to Kickstart Consumption

Policy efforts are shifting towards driving consumption and boosting consumer confidence, presenting a favourable risk-reward opportunity for...

Rikki Malik

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Disappointed

CTF disappoints with poor 2H24 profit and lack of special dividend. Gold loan losses and margin contraction are key reasons. Earnings downgrade...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Luk Fook 590.HK – Losing Its Shine?

Despite temporary hiccups, the company is geared to the rising trends of rising gold prices and demand by Chinese consumers. Sales are at a pre...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: Some Consumer IPO Pipelines and Their Proxies

HK's IPO market gains momentum with CATL leading the way. Consumer IPOs like Foshan Haitian are next in line, attracting attention. Others include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China: Revival 2.0?

​Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.

Henry Soediarko

China Crosses the Rubicon - Direct Payments to Kickstart Consumption

​Policy efforts are shifting towards driving consumption and boosting consumer confidence, presenting a favourable risk-reward opportunity for...

Rikki Malik

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Disappointed

​CTF disappoints with poor 2H24 profit and lack of special dividend. Gold loan losses and margin contraction are key reasons. Earnings downgrade...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Luk Fook 590.HK – Losing Its Shine?

Despite temporary hiccups, the company is geared to the rising trends of rising gold prices and demand by Chinese consumers. Sales are at a pre...

Rikki Malik

Chinese real estate prices impact stock market, Trump's tariff approach to China changes, undervalued stocks in Hong Kong offer high yield potential.

Policy efforts are shifting towards driving consumption and boosting consumer confidence, presenting a favourable risk-reward opportunity for...

CTF disappoints with poor 2H24 profit and lack of special dividend. Gold loan losses and margin contraction are key reasons. Earnings downgrade...