AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.</li>
<li>Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.</li>
<li>While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.</li>
</ul>


CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.
Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.
While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.


[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<div><ul><li>Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow. Last month (ending 2/28), the WTR AI Index was down 0.6% M/M versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.3%).</li><li>Within the WTR AI Flow Index, declines in Software, Internet &amp; Data Services, and Other Industries were not completely offset by gains in Semiconductor and Other Tech.</li><li>Software (22% of the index) was down 12.0%, while Semiconductor (17% of the index) was up 13.9%, Internet and Data Services (7% of the index) was down 12.8%, Other Tech (24% of the index) was up 13.0%, and Other Industries (30% of the index) was down 5.3%.</li></ul></div>

Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow. Last month (ending 2/28), the WTR AI Index was down 0.6% M/M versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.3%).Within the WTR AI Flow Index, declines in Software, Internet &amp; Data Services, and Other Industries were not completely offset by gains in Semiconductor and Other Tech.Software (22% of the index) was down 12.0%, while Semiconductor (17% of the index) was up 13.9%, Internet and Data Services (7% of the index) was down 12.8%, Other Tech (24% of the index) was up 13.0%, and Other Industries (30% of the index) was down 5.3%.

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI - 2 March 2026

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

<ul>
<li>AI-Driven data centres are breaking a decade of flat U.S. electricity demand, pushing annual growth above historical norms, forcing utilities to expand their capacities.</li>
<li>Meeting this surge requires an all-of-the-above energy mix, where renewables lead new capacity additions, but natural gas remains the critical balancing fuel amid constraints and grid expansion.</li>
<li>The most durable beneficiaries are not power generators but midstream and infrastructure players, including grid builders, equipment manufacturers, and materials suppliers, whose revenues are driven by spending and reliability.</li>
</ul>


AI-Driven data centres are breaking a decade of flat U.S. electricity demand, pushing annual growth above historical norms, forcing utilities to expand their capacities.
Meeting this surge requires an all-of-the-above energy mix, where renewables lead new capacity additions, but natural gas remains the critical balancing fuel amid constraints and grid expansion.
The most durable beneficiaries are not power generators but midstream and infrastructure players, including grid builders, equipment manufacturers, and materials suppliers, whose revenues are driven by spending and reliability.


The AI Boom Is Becoming an Energy Infrastructure Story

<ul><li>Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow.</li><li>Last month (ending 11/30), the WTR AI Index was down 7.0% M/M versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.6%).</li><li>Software (28% of the index) was down 8.6%, while Semiconductor (12% of the index) was down 3.7%, Internet and Data Services (8% of the index) was down 20.9%, Other Tech (21% of the index) was down 5.5%, and Other Industries (31% of the index) was down 3.6%. </li></ul>

Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow.Last month (ending 11/30), the WTR AI Index was down 7.0% M/M versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 1.6%).Software (28% of the index) was down 8.6%, while Semiconductor (12% of the index) was down 3.7%, Internet and Data Services (8% of the index) was down 20.9%, Other Tech (21% of the index) was down 5.5%, and Other Industries (31% of the index) was down 3.6%. 

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver suppliers with high AIexposures, with key suppliers posting stellar revenue growth and material margin expansion.</li><li>We expect this outperformance to persist through 2026 and beyond, underpinned by an unabated AI infrastructure investment cycle and a sustained mix shift to higher-value solutions.</li><li>We reiterate the sector as one of our top picks. Reiterate our BUY rating on Innolight (300308 CH, BUY, TP: RMB591.00), the 2024 global optical transceiver market leader, positioned to benefit from surging overseas AI capex and 1.6T demand.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver suppliers with high AIexposures, with key suppliers posting stellar revenue growth and material margin expansion.We expect this outperformance to persist through 2026 and beyond, underpinned by an unabated AI infrastructure investment cycle and a sustained mix shift to higher-value solutions.We reiterate the sector as one of our top picks. Reiterate our BUY rating on Innolight (300308 CH, BUY, TP: RMB591.00), the 2024 global optical transceiver market leader, positioned to benefit from surging overseas AI capex and 1.6T demand.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Optical transceivers – sustained AI-driven outperformance ahead

United States

Lumentum Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, supplies optical and photonic products. Lumentum Holdings serves data communications and telecommunications, networking, and life-sciences markets worldwide.

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Lumentum Holdings (LITE US)

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI optics demand crushes InP yield. Supply is squeezed with Sumitomo captive and AXT export-bound. Yet Japan's 7N red phosphorus monopoly is the...

Mint Finance

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI - 2 March 2026

Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow. Last month (ending 2/28)...

Water Tower Research

The AI Boom Is Becoming an Energy Infrastructure Story

AI-driven data centers are driving electricity demand growth in the US, requiring utilities to expand capacity with a mix of renewables and...

Mint Finance

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI

Last month (ending 11/30), the WTR AI Index was down 7.0% M/M versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq...

Water Tower Research

Semiconductors - Optical transceivers – sustained AI-driven outperformance ahead

2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver suppliers with high AIexposures, with key suppliers posting stellar revenue growth and...

CMB International

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI optics demand crushes InP yield. Supply is squeezed with Sumitomo captive and AXT export-bound. Yet Japan's 7N red phosphorus monopoly is the...

Mint Finance

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI - 2 March 2026

Water Tower AI Flow Index. We monitor ~400 public companies across tech and AI for performance and AI-related news flow. Last month (ending 2/28)...

Water Tower Research

The AI Boom Is Becoming an Energy Infrastructure Story

​AI-driven data centers are driving electricity demand growth in the US, requiring utilities to expand capacity with a mix of renewables and...

Mint Finance

AI Flow Index : Sailing a Sea of Companies in AI

Last month (ending 11/30), the WTR AI Index was down 7.0% M/M versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq...

Water Tower Research

Semiconductors - Optical transceivers – sustained AI-driven outperformance ahead

2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver suppliers with high AIexposures, with key suppliers posting stellar revenue growth and...

CMB International

AI-driven data centers are driving electricity demand growth in the US, requiring utilities to expand capacity with a mix of renewables and...