Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This is a follow-up on our piece 10 days ago <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rate-cut-to-spur-copper-performance-in-the-short-term-to-over-10k-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:198832" rel="noopener">Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton.</a> </li>
<li>Copper, trading above USD 9,800/ton, appears poised to breach USD 10,000/ton; prospective rate cuts and supply deficits support upside, partially offset by elevated exchange inventories.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> are our favorite names. The <a href="https://www.mining.com/web/first-quantum-takes-small-steps-in-long-road-to-panama-mine-restart/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">restart of the Cobre Panama</a> mine (although low probability) could boost <a target="_blank">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>.</li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up on our piece 10 days ago Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton. 
Copper, trading above USD 9,800/ton, appears poised to breach USD 10,000/ton; prospective rate cuts and supply deficits support upside, partially offset by elevated exchange inventories.

Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) are our favorite names. The restart of the Cobre Panama mine (although low probability) could boost First Quantum Minerals (FM CN).


Copper All Set To Break 10k USD/Ton In The Short-Term

<ul>
<li>Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper's market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's indication of a potential rate cut next month.</li>
<li>We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.</li>
<li>Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China's softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.</li>
</ul>


Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper's market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's indication of a potential rate cut next month.
We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.
Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China's softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.


Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>The company has been able to lower costs significantly by 12% YoY, improve on its byproduct credits by 37%YoY due to gold prices increasing, while copper prices rose 3.5% YoY.</li>
<li>Production for H1FY25 rose 10% YoY, led by a ramp-up in Centinala, resulting in EBITDA/profit improving by 60% YoY. </li>
<li>While the stock trades at 25x FY25e P/E, we believe that the runway for earnings improvement is enormous as the company ramps up its volumes and manages costs.</li>
</ul>


The company has been able to lower costs significantly by 12% YoY, improve on its byproduct credits by 37%YoY due to gold prices increasing, while copper prices rose 3.5% YoY.
Production for H1FY25 rose 10% YoY, led by a ramp-up in Centinala, resulting in EBITDA/profit improving by 60% YoY. 
While the stock trades at 25x FY25e P/E, we believe that the runway for earnings improvement is enormous as the company ramps up its volumes and manages costs.


Antofagasta (ANTO LN) H1 2025: Outperforming The Pack

<ul>
<li>By restricting the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper pipes/wiring and leaving out ores, concentrates, and cathodes, the Trump administration destroyed the COMEX-LME spread in one fell swoop. </li>
<li>COMEX prices have plunged, and the spread now is 150 USD/ton from the highs of almost 3000 USD/ton, with high inventories on the COMEX probably needing to be dumped. </li>
<li>Short term copper prices may face pressure, but we see an excellent outlook for the longer term, given the elevated China copper imports, which rose 18% YoY in July. </li>
</ul>


By restricting the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper pipes/wiring and leaving out ores, concentrates, and cathodes, the Trump administration destroyed the COMEX-LME spread in one fell swoop. 
COMEX prices have plunged, and the spread now is 150 USD/ton from the highs of almost 3000 USD/ton, with high inventories on the COMEX probably needing to be dumped. 
Short term copper prices may face pressure, but we see an excellent outlook for the longer term, given the elevated China copper imports, which rose 18% YoY in July. 


COMEX Spread Destroyed By Trump, Long-Term Copper Still Great

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact. </li>
<li>This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. </li>
<li>There are several expected ADDs/DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event. There will also be flows for the other index members due to capping.</li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact. 
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index. 
There are several expected ADDs/DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event. There will also be flows for the other index members due to capping.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way

Canada

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Lundin Mining (LUN CN)

Copper All Set To Break 10k USD/Ton In The Short-Term

Copper looks all set to break the 10,000 USD/ton barrier in the short-term. We highlight our top picks to play the bullish copper trade.

Sameer Taneja

Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

Copper has a new catalyst in anticipated rate cuts by the Fed. We believe that despite the high inventories, there is a good short-term setup for...

Sameer Taneja

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) H1 2025: Outperforming The Pack

Antofagasta (ANTO LN) is outperforming its peers based on improvements in production and costs. Coupled with a strong pricing environment for...

Sameer Taneja

COMEX Spread Destroyed By Trump, Long-Term Copper Still Great

Madness in the markets persist with Trump destroying the COMEX prices by showing leniency on pure copper imports. Despite this, the long-term...

Sameer Taneja

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way

The MV Junior Gold Miners Index is an interesting rebal mostly because there is capping, and there are deletions both up and down. Names get...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)