Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass) after ACWI-US held at crucial $134 support.</li>
<li>We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in last week's Int'l Compass (April 23).</li>
<li>Remain overweight Technology which remains our primary focus ever since our April 16 Int'l Compass. We also highlight opportunities within Energy, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass) after ACWI-US held at crucial $134 support.
We also upgraded our near-term outlook to bullish on MSCI ACWI in last week's Int'l Compass (April 23).
Remain overweight Technology which remains our primary focus ever since our April 16 Int'l Compass. We also highlight opportunities within Energy, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities


Technology Buys; Downgrading Spain to Market Weight. Buys in Tech, Energy, Industrials, Materials

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Apple announced the iPhone 17e and the M4 iPad Air, with spec/features largely in-line with market expectations.</li><li>That said, we have identified several major positives: 1) iPhone 17e: the same starting price at US$599 while doubling base storage to 256GB (vs. 128GB starting iPhone 16e storage);</li><li>2) M4 iPad Air: massive performance leap with M4 chip, an increased 12GB of RAM and N1/C1X connectivity chips at unchanged starting prices (US$599 for 11 inch, US$799 for 13 inch)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apple announced the iPhone 17e and the M4 iPad Air, with spec/features largely in-line with market expectations.That said, we have identified several major positives: 1) iPhone 17e: the same starting price at US$599 while doubling base storage to 256GB (vs. 128GB starting iPhone 16e storage);2) M4 iPad Air: massive performance leap with M4 chip, an increased 12GB of RAM and N1/C1X connectivity chips at unchanged starting prices (US$599 for 11 inch, US$799 for 13 inch)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - IPhone 17e and M4 IPad Air Debut with Aggressive Value Proposition Is Positive...

<ul><li>Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported upbeat FY1Q26 (CY4Q25) results with revenue growth of 16% YoY, 4% above consensus, driven by strong iPhone sales (+23% YoY) and China recovery (+38% YoY, vs -4% in FY4Q), while GPM further expanded to 48.2% thanks to favourable mix and leverage.</li><li>For FY2Q26E, mgmt. guided revenue growth of 13-16% YoY and resilient GPM of 48-49% despite memory headwinds. Looking into 2026, we expect “strong iPhone cycle, strong price cycle” to continue given iPhone Fold/18 upgrade, high-end market share gains and Google AI partnership.</li><li>We believe Apple is better positioned to navigate memory headwinds than peers given its supply chain leverage and strong pricing power, and we prefer stocks with content/share gains in new product cycles (iPhone Fold/smart home/AI glasses), including Luxshare, AAC, FIT and BYDE.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported upbeat FY1Q26 (CY4Q25) results with revenue growth of 16% YoY, 4% above consensus, driven by strong iPhone sales (+23% YoY) and China recovery (+38% YoY, vs -4% in FY4Q), while GPM further expanded to 48.2% thanks to favourable mix and leverage.For FY2Q26E, mgmt. guided revenue growth of 13-16% YoY and resilient GPM of 48-49% despite memory headwinds. Looking into 2026, we expect “strong iPhone cycle, strong price cycle” to continue given iPhone Fold/18 upgrade, high-end market share gains and Google AI partnership.We believe Apple is better positioned to navigate memory headwinds than peers given its supply chain leverage and strong pricing power, and we prefer stocks with content/share gains in new product cycles (iPhone Fold/smart home/AI glasses), including Luxshare, AAC, FIT and BYDE.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - Apple FY1Q26 and Guidance Beat; Positive on Strong IPhone Cycle...

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: China’s Auto Industry Braces for a Bumpy 2026</li><li>Chinese Province Tightens Rules on Offshore Bond Issuance by State Firms</li><li>China’s December Exports Beat Forecasts, Annual Trade Surplus Hits Record</li></ul>

In Depth: China’s Auto Industry Braces for a Bumpy 2026Chinese Province Tightens Rules on Offshore Bond Issuance by State FirmsChina’s December Exports Beat Forecasts, Annual Trade Surplus Hits Record

CX Daily: China’s Auto Industry Braces for a Bumpy 2026 

<ul><li>During the CES on 5 Jan (US time), NVIDIA/AMD/Qualcomm/Intel hosted keynotes and launch events to outline the latest product roadmaps and developments of AI server/PC platforms.</li><li>Overall, we are encouraged to see Vera Rubin production earlier than expected (now in full production and ramp on track in 2H26) and MI400/Helios platform upgrade well on track, which will benefit server components in interconnects (connectors/cables/CPO) and liquid cooling (CDU/UQD/manifold).</li><li>For AI PCs, with Qualcomm/Intel/AMD’s new AI PC processors with performance improvement for large-scale AI model support, we remain positive on AI PC penetration to increase rapidly in FY26-27E. F</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

During the CES on 5 Jan (US time), NVIDIA/AMD/Qualcomm/Intel hosted keynotes and launch events to outline the latest product roadmaps and developments of AI server/PC platforms.Overall, we are encouraged to see Vera Rubin production earlier than expected (now in full production and ramp on track in 2H26) and MI400/Helios platform upgrade well on track, which will benefit server components in interconnects (connectors/cables/CPO) and liquid cooling (CDU/UQD/manifold).For AI PCs, with Qualcomm/Intel/AMD’s new AI PC processors with performance improvement for large-scale AI model support, we remain positive on AI PC penetration to increase rapidly in FY26-27E. FContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - CES 2026 Keynotes: Next-Gen Rubin/MI400 Platform on Track...

China

Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. researches, manufactures and sells connectors. The Company's products are widely used in computers, communication devices, consumer electronics products and automobiles.

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Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH)

Technology Buys; Downgrading Spain to Market Weight. Buys in Tech, Energy, Industrials, Materials

Technology Buys; Downgrading Spain to Market Weight; Remain overweight Tech which remains our primary focus ever since April 16. We also highlight...

Vermilion Research

Technology - IPhone 17e and M4 IPad Air Debut with Aggressive Value Proposition Is Positive...

That said, we have identified several major positives: 1) iPhone 17e: the same starting price at US$599 while doubling base storage to 256GB (vs....

CMB International

Technology - Apple FY1Q26 and Guidance Beat; Positive on Strong IPhone Cycle...

Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported upbeat FY1Q26 (CY4Q25) results with revenue growth of 16% YoY, 4% above consensus, driven by strong iPhone sales (+23%...

CMB International

CX Daily: China’s Auto Industry Braces for a Bumpy 2026

In Depth: China’s Auto Industry Braces for a Bumpy 2026 Chinese Province Tightens Rules on Offshore Bond Issuance by State Firms China’s December...

Caixin Global

Technology - CES 2026 Keynotes: Next-Gen Rubin/MI400 Platform on Track...

During the CES on 5 Jan (US time), NVIDIA/AMD/Qualcomm/Intel hosted keynotes and launch events to outline the latest product roadmaps and...

CMB International

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