Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Apple shares have fallen significantly on a weakening outloook; Yet manufacturers Quanta and Pegatron's shares still haven't reacted negatively.</li>
<li>Inventory levels appear too high across Apple's key contract manufacturers based on our analysis.</li>
<li>We see Quanta &amp; Pegatron at risk of margin pressure in 2023E with negative operating leverage potentially causing significant profit declines.</li>
</ul>


Apple shares have fallen significantly on a weakening outloook; Yet manufacturers Quanta and Pegatron's shares still haven't reacted negatively.
Inventory levels appear too high across Apple's key contract manufacturers based on our analysis.
We see Quanta &amp; Pegatron at risk of margin pressure in 2023E with negative operating leverage potentially causing significant profit declines.


Long Apple Vs. Short Quanta & Pegatron: Trade Ahead of Apple's Upcoming Earnings

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC's revenue could drop in the near-term due to customers cutting orders, however full year 2023E growth still likely thanks to advanced chips.</li>
<li>Samsung has guided staff internally for a major slump in its semiconductor unit's operating profit.</li>
<li>Apple is pushing for price cuts amongst its suppliers due to weak end demand for its products.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's revenue could drop in the near-term due to customers cutting orders, however full year 2023E growth still likely thanks to advanced chips.
Samsung has guided staff internally for a major slump in its semiconductor unit's operating profit.
Apple is pushing for price cuts amongst its suppliers due to weak end demand for its products.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Signs TSMC Winning the 3-Nm Battle Vs. Samsung, Apple Bargaining Down Suppliers

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 25th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,113.7 million, led by financials, consumer staples, utilities sectors, and offset by health care, industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Luzhou Lao Jiao, Yunnan New Energy Material, CATL.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 25th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,113.7 million, led by financials, consumer staples, utilities sectors, and offset by health care, industrials.
We highlight flows for Luzhou Lao Jiao, Yunnan New Energy Material, CATL.


Northbound Flows (Nov 25th): Luzhou Lao Jiao, Yunnan New Energy Material, CATL

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics / Event-Driven

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH)

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange -Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.</li>
<li>Overall, net inflow over the past week was ~US$0.83bn, split between Shanghai (+US$1.16bn) and Shenzhen (-US$0.32bn).</li>
<li>The largest inflows were into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-mindray-bio-medic-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28017:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical (300760 CH)</a>. The largest outflows were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yunnan-chuangxin-new-material" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27135:1" rel="noopener">Yunnan Energy New Material (002812 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26048:1" rel="noopener">BYD (002594 CH)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange -Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
Overall, net inflow over the past week was ~US$0.83bn, split between Shanghai (+US$1.16bn) and Shenzhen (-US$0.32bn).
The largest inflows were into Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) and Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical (300760 CH). The largest outflows were in Yunnan Energy New Material (002812 CH) and BYD (002594 CH).


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (25 November 2022)

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 21st.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$4,305.1 million, led by consumer staples, financials, and offset by energy, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili,  China Tourism, Longi Green.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 21st.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$4,305.1 million, led by consumer staples, financials, and offset by energy, utilities.
We highlight flows for BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili,  China Tourism, Longi Green.


Northbound Flows (Oct 21st): BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili, China Tourism, Longi Green

China

Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. researches, manufactures and sells connectors. The Company's products are widely used in computers, communication devices, consumer electronics products and automobiles.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH)

Long Apple Vs. Short Quanta & Pegatron: Trade Ahead of Apple's Upcoming Earnings

We see Quanta & Pegatron at risk of margin pressure in 2023E -- With negative operating leverage potentially causing significant profit declines.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Signs TSMC Winning the 3-Nm Battle Vs. Samsung, Apple Bargaining Down Suppliers

TSMC's revenue could drop in the near-term due to customers cutting orders, however full year 2023E growth still likely thanks to advanced chips.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Northbound Flows (Nov 25th): Luzhou Lao Jiao, Yunnan New Energy Material, CATL

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Luzhou Lao Jiao, Yunnan New Energy Material, CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (25 November 2022)

Overall, net inflow over the past week in the HK -Shanghai-Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities was ~US$0.83bn, split between Shanghai...

David Blennerhassett

Northbound Flows (Oct 21st): BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili, China Tourism, Longi Green

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili, China Tourism, Longi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Long Apple Vs. Short Quanta & Pegatron: Trade Ahead of Apple's Upcoming Earnings

We see Quanta & Pegatron at risk of margin pressure in 2023E -- With negative operating leverage potentially causing significant profit declines.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Signs TSMC Winning the 3-Nm Battle Vs. Samsung, Apple Bargaining Down Suppliers

TSMC's revenue could drop in the near-term due to customers cutting orders, however full year 2023E growth still likely thanks to advanced chips.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Northbound Flows (Nov 25th): Luzhou Lao Jiao, Yunnan New Energy Material, CATL

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Luzhou Lao Jiao, Yunnan New Energy Material, CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (25 November 2022)

Overall, net inflow over the past week in the HK -Shanghai-Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities was ~US$0.83bn, split between Shanghai...

David Blennerhassett

Northbound Flows (Oct 21st): BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili, China Tourism, Longi Green

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BOE, Moutai, Ping An, Yili, China Tourism, Longi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (25 November 2022)