Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022. </li>
<li>By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.</li>
<li>As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.</li>
</ul>


E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022. 
By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.
As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.


E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/BIDU: Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI (+)</li>
<li>3690 HK: Local news said Douyin has deemphasized take out business (+)</li>
<li>PDD/4689 JP/AMZN/4385 JP/4755 JP: Data indicates that Temu is particularly popular in Japan (+/~/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/BIDU: Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI (+)
3690 HK: Local news said Douyin has deemphasized take out business (+)
PDD/4689 JP/AMZN/4385 JP/4755 JP: Data indicates that Temu is particularly popular in Japan (+/~/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/1810 HK/BIDU/JD/BABA/PDD/1024 HK/3690 HK/WB/4689JP/4755JP

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO Corp (6146 JP)</a> to buy.</li>
<li>It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.</li>
<li>I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less DISCO Corp (6146 JP) to buy.
It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.
I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.


FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

<ul>
<li>No changes in the rankings since last time. Socionext (6526), Disco (6146), and a Consumer Goods stock (Zozo (3092) top-ranked, Ryohin Keikaku (7453) a better choice) are ADDs.</li>
<li>The DELETEs are still Takara Holdings (2531), Pacific Metals (5541), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232) with a dark horse candidate in Hitachi Zosen (7004) to replace Takara.</li>
<li>There is the upweight to Nitori (9843) but now less funkiness with Fast Retailing (9983). But it will continue being an interesting Nikkei 225 influence (for years to come).</li>
</ul>


No changes in the rankings since last time. Socionext (6526), Disco (6146), and a Consumer Goods stock (Zozo (3092) top-ranked, Ryohin Keikaku (7453) a better choice) are ADDs.
The DELETEs are still Takara Holdings (2531), Pacific Metals (5541), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232) with a dark horse candidate in Hitachi Zosen (7004) to replace Takara.
There is the upweight to Nitori (9843) but now less funkiness with Fast Retailing (9983). But it will continue being an interesting Nikkei 225 influence (for years to come).


March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal:  Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock, Still

<ul>
<li>New regulations due in April are forcing Japan’s logistics industry to evolve rapidly and seek efficiencies to offset a drastic shortage of drivers.</li>
<li>Most firms are aware of the long-term gains that removing inefficiencies in the current system will lead to and should result in improved operating margins.</li>
<li>The government announced new support policies and many consumers say they are willing to accept slower deliveries, which should lower costs for e-commerce.</li>
</ul>


New regulations due in April are forcing Japan’s logistics industry to evolve rapidly and seek efficiencies to offset a drastic shortage of drivers.
Most firms are aware of the long-term gains that removing inefficiencies in the current system will lead to and should result in improved operating margins.
The government announced new support policies and many consumers say they are willing to accept slower deliveries, which should lower costs for e-commerce.


Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Michael Causton

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/1810 HK/BIDU/JD/BABA/PDD/1024 HK/3690 HK/WB/4689JP/4755JP

Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI; Douyin shifts focus away from takeout; and Temu gains popularity in Japan.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

The announcement will come out in <3 weeks. Since I published, we have an update that Yanai-san sold Fast Retailing shares, Nitori jumped 8% on...

Travis Lundy

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock, Still

Fast Retailing reported a beat, went to 11%, expect the possibility Yanai-san will be selling this week into the end of January, picking up the...

Travis Lundy

Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits

Japan's distribution industry is adapting to new regulations due in April, addressing driver shortages and resulting in new efficiencies that will...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

​E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Michael Causton

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/1810 HK/BIDU/JD/BABA/PDD/1024 HK/3690 HK/WB/4689JP/4755JP

​Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI; Douyin shifts focus away from takeout; and Temu gains popularity in Japan.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

The announcement will come out in <3 weeks. Since I published, we have an update that Yanai-san sold Fast Retailing shares, Nitori jumped 8% on...

Travis Lundy

March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Socionext, Disco, and a Consumer Goods Stock, Still

Fast Retailing reported a beat, went to 11%, expect the possibility Yanai-san will be selling this week into the end of January, picking up the...

Travis Lundy

Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits

​Japan's distribution industry is adapting to new regulations due in April, addressing driver shortages and resulting in new efficiencies that will...

Michael Causton

E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI; Douyin shifts focus away from takeout; and Temu gains popularity in Japan.

Japan's distribution industry is adapting to new regulations due in April, addressing driver shortages and resulting in new efficiencies that will...