Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday quite late, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> announced a Business and Capital Alliance whereby SBI would buy 20% in a partial offer at ¥340/share.</li>
<li>I think that's too low given the history of the shares, the fact that Activist-ish-y Wealthy Guy Hiroyuki MAKI offered ¥407/share a year ago and got far fewer shares. </li>
<li>Since then, revenues and earnings were revised upwards, and guidance this year is for strong growth. I would not be surprised to see.... um.... interference.</li>
</ul>


On Friday quite late, BASE Inc (4477 JP) and SBI Holdings (8473 JP) announced a Business and Capital Alliance whereby SBI would buy 20% in a partial offer at ¥340/share.
I think that's too low given the history of the shares, the fact that Activist-ish-y Wealthy Guy Hiroyuki MAKI offered ¥407/share a year ago and got far fewer shares. 
Since then, revenues and earnings were revised upwards, and guidance this year is for strong growth. I would not be surprised to see.... um.... interference.


[Japan Partial Tender] SBI Launches Partial Offer for 20% of BASE (4477 JP) At ¥340 - Needs More

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After a bumper bonus during Covid, the fashion sector saw calmer spending in the last 18 months as the big return to shops led to more muted growth online. </li>
<li>The overall EC fashion market grew around 4-7% depending on how you measure it, but online market share actually fell as people went back to shops.</li>
<li>This in-depth review highlights the key trends in the sector as well as the winners by sales growth among retailers and fashion brands.</li>
</ul>


After a bumper bonus during Covid, the fashion sector saw calmer spending in the last 18 months as the big return to shops led to more muted growth online. 
The overall EC fashion market grew around 4-7% depending on how you measure it, but online market share actually fell as people went back to shops.
This in-depth review highlights the key trends in the sector as well as the winners by sales growth among retailers and fashion brands.


Fashion E-Commerce: Physical Stores Grow Faster than Online in Japan

<ul>
<li>E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022. </li>
<li>By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.</li>
<li>As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.</li>
</ul>


E-Commerce growth slowed marginally as the sector consolidated post-Covid but remained higher than any other channel in 2022. 
By 2025-26, it will be the largest channel, overtaking convenience stores – but Japan’s continuing support for retail stores means that omnichannel will be the main model.
As a result, the majority of transactions will be researched, initiated, and fulfilled through a combination of online and physical stores.


E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Bain/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a> have kept their <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> offer unchanged and have decided to wait for the EQT/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> offer to close, convinced that it will fail. </li>
<li>Minorities have a free option on the higher Bain/LY offer. In the worst case, the EQT/DG offer succeeds, and in the best-case, it fails, and minorities get the Bain/LY offer.</li>
<li>The success of the EQT/DG offer relies heavily on KDDI's support, which remains uncertain. It is very likely that EQT/DG will at least match Bain/LY’s JPY3,640 offer. </li>
</ul>


Bain/LY (4689 JP) have kept their Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) offer unchanged and have decided to wait for the EQT/Digital Garage (4819 JP) offer to close, convinced that it will fail. 
Minorities have a free option on the higher Bain/LY offer. In the worst case, the EQT/DG offer succeeds, and in the best-case, it fails, and minorities get the Bain/LY offer.
The success of the EQT/DG offer relies heavily on KDDI's support, which remains uncertain. It is very likely that EQT/DG will at least match Bain/LY’s JPY3,640 offer. 


Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY Hold Firm as EQT/DG Face a Dilemma

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/BIDU: Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI (+)</li>
<li>3690 HK: Local news said Douyin has deemphasized take out business (+)</li>
<li>PDD/4689 JP/AMZN/4385 JP/4755 JP: Data indicates that Temu is particularly popular in Japan (+/~/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/BIDU: Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI (+)
3690 HK: Local news said Douyin has deemphasized take out business (+)
PDD/4689 JP/AMZN/4385 JP/4755 JP: Data indicates that Temu is particularly popular in Japan (+/~/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/1810 HK/BIDU/JD/BABA/PDD/1024 HK/3690 HK/WB/4689JP/4755JP

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

[Japan Partial Tender] SBI Launches Partial Offer for 20% of BASE (4477 JP) At ¥340 - Needs More

Activish-y HNWI MAKI-san went after BASE last year. He offered ¥407 in a long-dated tender which got 6+% of shares. Now SBI wants to buy 20% at...

Travis Lundy

Fashion E-Commerce: Physical Stores Grow Faster than Online in Japan

Fashion sector saw a slowdown in online spending post-Covid as shoppers returned to physical stores, impacting overall market growth. Winners in...

Michael Causton

E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Michael Causton

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY Hold Firm as EQT/DG Face a Dilemma

EQT/DG has raised its offer by JPY1 to JPY3,571 as 1) it cannot meet the lower limit, 2) it has no additional irrevocables to disclose, and 3) it...

Arun George

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/1810 HK/BIDU/JD/BABA/PDD/1024 HK/3690 HK/WB/4689JP/4755JP

Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI; Douyin shifts focus away from takeout; and Temu gains popularity in Japan.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

[Japan Partial Tender] SBI Launches Partial Offer for 20% of BASE (4477 JP) At ¥340 - Needs More

Activish-y HNWI MAKI-san went after BASE last year. He offered ¥407 in a long-dated tender which got 6+% of shares. Now SBI wants to buy 20% at...

Travis Lundy

Fashion E-Commerce: Physical Stores Grow Faster than Online in Japan

​Fashion sector saw a slowdown in online spending post-Covid as shoppers returned to physical stores, impacting overall market growth. Winners in...

Michael Causton

E-Commerce in Japan: Omnichannel Consolidation

​E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Michael Causton

Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Bain/LY Hold Firm as EQT/DG Face a Dilemma

EQT/DG has raised its offer by JPY1 to JPY3,571 as 1) it cannot meet the lower limit, 2) it has no additional irrevocables to disclose, and 3) it...

Arun George

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/1810 HK/BIDU/JD/BABA/PDD/1024 HK/3690 HK/WB/4689JP/4755JP

​Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI; Douyin shifts focus away from takeout; and Temu gains popularity in Japan.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Fashion sector saw a slowdown in online spending post-Covid as shoppers returned to physical stores, impacting overall market growth. Winners in...

E-commerce growth in Japan remains strong post-Covid, set to overtake convenience stores by 2025-26, with omnichannel model becoming dominant for...

Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI; Douyin shifts focus away from takeout; and Temu gains popularity in Japan.