Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>M3’s share price has dropped 18% since its 2Q earnings release. Both revenue and OP fell below consensus and we were surprised by the drop in OPM for 2Q.</li>
<li>Medical Platform’s earnings have continued to decline as a result of spending cuts by pharmaceutical companies while other segments have failed to make up for the decline in Medical Platform.</li>
<li>M3 recently bought a majority stake in ELAN, whose consolidation will dilute m3’s margins. The company’s M&amp;A deals have not brought in any significant contribution to consolidated earnings.</li>
</ul>


M3’s share price has dropped 18% since its 2Q earnings release. Both revenue and OP fell below consensus and we were surprised by the drop in OPM for 2Q.
Medical Platform’s earnings have continued to decline as a result of spending cuts by pharmaceutical companies while other segments have failed to make up for the decline in Medical Platform.
M3 recently bought a majority stake in ELAN, whose consolidation will dilute m3’s margins. The company’s M&amp;A deals have not brought in any significant contribution to consolidated earnings.


M3: Earnings Trend Downward, ELAN Acquisition to Further Dilute Margins

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> and buy more, or get long. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ctbc-financial-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:436:1" rel="noopener">CTBC Financial Holding (2891 TT)</a> may make a better run at it, and may even bump.</li>
<li>It's a hard to be bearish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> at 0.34x P/B. Yet the Hong Kong property market remains a challenging space. To put it mildly.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> saw breathless news articles suggesting a foreign takeover became more difficult. Not really.</li>
</ul>


Stay long Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and buy more, or get long. CTBC Financial Holding (2891 TT) may make a better run at it, and may even bump.
It's a hard to be bearish Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) at 0.34x P/B. Yet the Hong Kong property market remains a challenging space. To put it mildly.

Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) saw breathless news articles suggesting a foreign takeover became more difficult. Not really.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong Financial, Swire Pac, Seven & I, Korea Zinc

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> will buy 50.1-55.0% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elan-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18367:1" rel="noopener">Elan Corp (6099 JP)</a>. Three principals+family have agreed to tender 50.1%. The premium is not huge. This is not an ATH. </li>
<li>There will be synergies. I am a little surprised by the deal+price (CEO is young, why sell so cheaply so early?) but it should be good for the TargetCo.</li>
<li>There are possible post-tender complications on a high participation rate. I expect those can be cured relatively easily. </li>
</ul>



M3 Inc (2413 JP) will buy 50.1-55.0% of Elan Corp (6099 JP). Three principals+family have agreed to tender 50.1%. The premium is not huge. This is not an ATH. 
There will be synergies. I am a little surprised by the deal+price (CEO is young, why sell so cheaply so early?) but it should be good for the TargetCo.
There are possible post-tender complications on a high participation rate. I expect those can be cured relatively easily. 


M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elan-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18367:1" rel="noopener">Elan Corp (6099 JP)</a> announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>. M3 aims to make Elan a consolidated subsidiary.  </li>
<li>The offer is for a minimum of 30.4 million (50.10% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 33.3 million shares (55.00% ownership ratio) at JPY1,040, 24.0% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable, suggesting a final proration materially above the minimum of 56.07%.</li>
</ul>



Elan Corp (6099 JP) announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement with M3 Inc (2413 JP). M3 aims to make Elan a consolidated subsidiary.  
The offer is for a minimum of 30.4 million (50.10% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 33.3 million shares (55.00% ownership ratio) at JPY1,040, 24.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable, suggesting a final proration materially above the minimum of 56.07%.


Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On Thursday 29 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo Corp (4543 JP)</a> announced a secondary offering where 7 major cross-holders would sell just under 5% of the shares outstanding to international investors. </li>
<li>In recent quarters, Terumo has seen better consensus EPS growth than Peers in recent quarters, and Peers have underperformed. Right now, Terumo isn't 'cheap' but consensus growth is strong.</li>
<li>This back-end demand in this case has enough moving parts that it bears a closer look. </li>
</ul>


On Thursday 29 August, Terumo Corp (4543 JP) announced a secondary offering where 7 major cross-holders would sell just under 5% of the shares outstanding to international investors. 
In recent quarters, Terumo has seen better consensus EPS growth than Peers in recent quarters, and Peers have underperformed. Right now, Terumo isn't 'cheap' but consensus growth is strong.
This back-end demand in this case has enough moving parts that it bears a closer look. 


Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering - Smaller Than It Looks

Japan

M3, Inc. supplies medical information services for doctors through the Internet. The Company also supports marketing of pharmaceutical companies and medical equipment manufacturers.

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M3 Inc (2413 JP)

M3: Earnings Trend Downward, ELAN Acquisition to Further Dilute Margins

• M3’s share price has dropped more than 18% since its 2Q earnings release. Both revenue and OP fell below consensus and we were surprised by the...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong Financial, Swire Pac, Seven & I, Korea Zinc

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

M3 (2413 JP) Launches Partial Offer To Take Control of Elan (6099 JP)

M3 sets a partial TOB to buy control of Elan (6099). The structure/control/target ownership look a lot like the Benefit One deal. This one is cheap...

Travis Lundy

Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable compared to historical share...

Arun George

Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering - Smaller Than It Looks

Terumo today announced a ¥200bn offering (at last price) for six financial institutions and one corporate to sell shares in an international-only...

Travis Lundy

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