IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elan-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18367:1" rel="noopener">Elan Corp (6099 JP)</a> announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a>. M3 aims to make Elan a consolidated subsidiary.  </li>
<li>The offer is for a minimum of 30.4 million (50.10% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 33.3 million shares (55.00% ownership ratio) at JPY1,040, 24.0% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable, suggesting a final proration materially above the minimum of 56.07%.</li>
</ul>



Elan Corp (6099 JP) announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement with M3 Inc (2413 JP). M3 aims to make Elan a consolidated subsidiary.  
The offer is for a minimum of 30.4 million (50.10% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 33.3 million shares (55.00% ownership ratio) at JPY1,040, 24.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable, suggesting a final proration materially above the minimum of 56.07%.


Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On Thursday 29 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo Corp (4543 JP)</a> announced a secondary offering where 7 major cross-holders would sell just under 5% of the shares outstanding to international investors. </li>
<li>In recent quarters, Terumo has seen better consensus EPS growth than Peers in recent quarters, and Peers have underperformed. Right now, Terumo isn't 'cheap' but consensus growth is strong.</li>
<li>This back-end demand in this case has enough moving parts that it bears a closer look. </li>
</ul>


On Thursday 29 August, Terumo Corp (4543 JP) announced a secondary offering where 7 major cross-holders would sell just under 5% of the shares outstanding to international investors. 
In recent quarters, Terumo has seen better consensus EPS growth than Peers in recent quarters, and Peers have underperformed. Right now, Terumo isn't 'cheap' but consensus growth is strong.
This back-end demand in this case has enough moving parts that it bears a closer look. 


Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering - Smaller Than It Looks

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> reported 1QFY03/2025 results on Friday. Both revenue and OP for the quarter beat consensus estimates by 3.5% and 11.0% respectively despite earnings continue to decline.</li>
<li>Medical Platform segment’s earnings have continued to decline as a result of pharma marketing whose revenues are impacted due to spending cuts by pharmaceutical companies.</li>
<li>M3’s share price has declined by more than 35% YTD and we don’t see any tangible recovery in the company’s earnings as overseas and other businesses face challenges.</li>
</ul>



M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 1QFY03/2025 results on Friday. Both revenue and OP for the quarter beat consensus estimates by 3.5% and 11.0% respectively despite earnings continue to decline.
Medical Platform segment’s earnings have continued to decline as a result of pharma marketing whose revenues are impacted due to spending cuts by pharmaceutical companies.
M3’s share price has declined by more than 35% YTD and we don’t see any tangible recovery in the company’s earnings as overseas and other businesses face challenges.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> reported 4Q and Full-year FY03/2024 results. Earnings missed both guidance as well as consensus due to slowdown in Medical Platform and Overseas businesses.</li>
<li>Medical Platform’s earnings declined further in 4Q with spending cuts by pharma companies, and it seems that the segment’s earnings will further decline going forward.</li>
<li>M3’s share price is down 18% YTD, and we do not see many catalysts to drive a rally in the company’s share price.</li>
</ul>



M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 4Q and Full-year FY03/2024 results. Earnings missed both guidance as well as consensus due to slowdown in Medical Platform and Overseas businesses.
Medical Platform’s earnings declined further in 4Q with spending cuts by pharma companies, and it seems that the segment’s earnings will further decline going forward.
M3’s share price is down 18% YTD, and we do not see many catalysts to drive a rally in the company’s share price.


M3 4Q Results: Earnings Miss and Further Slowdown Seems Unavoidable

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-chouzai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5873:1" rel="noopener">Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP)</a> is an integrated healthcare company whose core business is the operation of dispensing pharmacies.</li>
<li>In FY03/23, Nihon Chouzai reported sales of JPY313.3bn, operating profit of JPY7.6bn, recurring profit of JPY7.7bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY4.5bn.</li>
<li>Nihon Chouzai Co., Ltd. announced the retirement of treasury shares.</li>
</ul>



Nihon Chouzai (3341 JP) is an integrated healthcare company whose core business is the operation of dispensing pharmacies.
In FY03/23, Nihon Chouzai reported sales of JPY313.3bn, operating profit of JPY7.6bn, recurring profit of JPY7.7bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY4.5bn.
Nihon Chouzai Co., Ltd. announced the retirement of treasury shares.


Japan

M3, Inc. supplies medical information services for doctors through the Internet. The Company also supports marketing of pharmaceutical companies and medical equipment manufacturers.

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M3 Inc (2413 JP)

Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable compared to historical share...

Arun George

Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering - Smaller Than It Looks

Terumo today announced a ¥200bn offering (at last price) for six financial institutions and one corporate to sell shares in an international-only...

Travis Lundy

M3: No Tangible Recovery in Earnings Yet

M3's 1Q earnings beat revenue and OP estimates, however, earnings continue to decline due to decline in pharma marketing and drop in US clinical...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

M3 4Q Results: Earnings Miss and Further Slowdown Seems Unavoidable

As we expected, m3 missed its own guidance as well as consensus estimates. Medical Platform's earnings growth has decelerated, and the completion...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Nihon Chouzai (3341): Q3 FY03/24 Update

Nihon Chouzai is an integrated healthcare company focused on operating dispensing pharmacies, reporting solid financial performance and announcing...

Shared Research

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Dividend (Yield)

Elan Corporation (6099 JP): M3 (2413 JP)’s Partial Tender Offer

Irrevocable from tendering shareholders will satisfy the minimum acceptance condition. The offer is unremarkable compared to historical share...

Arun George

Terumo (4543 JP) Secondary Offering - Smaller Than It Looks

Terumo today announced a ¥200bn offering (at last price) for six financial institutions and one corporate to sell shares in an international-only...

Travis Lundy

M3: No Tangible Recovery in Earnings Yet

​M3's 1Q earnings beat revenue and OP estimates, however, earnings continue to decline due to decline in pharma marketing and drop in US clinical...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

M3 4Q Results: Earnings Miss and Further Slowdown Seems Unavoidable

As we expected, m3 missed its own guidance as well as consensus estimates. Medical Platform's earnings growth has decelerated, and the completion...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Nihon Chouzai (3341): Q3 FY03/24 Update

​Nihon Chouzai is an integrated healthcare company focused on operating dispensing pharmacies, reporting solid financial performance and announcing...

Shared Research

M3's 1Q earnings beat revenue and OP estimates, however, earnings continue to decline due to decline in pharma marketing and drop in US clinical...

Nihon Chouzai is an integrated healthcare company focused on operating dispensing pharmacies, reporting solid financial performance and announcing...