Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. </li>
<li>There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.</li>
<li>Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. </li>
</ul>


Australia domestic credit growth is now at -2.2% YoY in January 2024, the worst figure since August 2021. 
There are negative implications for the delta of net interest income for Australia's banks as loan growth moves negative.
Risk of rising credit costs is higher, not only from worsening insolvencies with corporates, but also with rising mortgage bad loans. 


Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 21st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, CSL, Transurban, NEWMONT, Zip.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 21st (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD50.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, CSL, Transurban, NEWMONT, Zip.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 21st): JB Hi-Fi, CSL, Transurban, NEWMONT, Zip

<ul>
<li>Australia Securities &amp; Investment Commission produces high-frequency data on insolvencies, which is valuable data for analyzing banks. There is pronounced deterioration in at least 3 sectors.</li>
<li>In construction, total appointments rose to 829 YTD to 10 Sept 2023 from 588 a year ago and from 250 in the preceding comparable period. </li>
<li>Hotel &amp; food services and retail trade are also seeing high growth of insolvencies. Australia's banks will likely face more defaults, NPLs and credit costs. </li>
</ul>


Australia Securities &amp; Investment Commission produces high-frequency data on insolvencies, which is valuable data for analyzing banks. There is pronounced deterioration in at least 3 sectors.
In construction, total appointments rose to 829 YTD to 10 Sept 2023 from 588 a year ago and from 250 in the preceding comparable period. 
Hotel &amp; food services and retail trade are also seeing high growth of insolvencies. Australia's banks will likely face more defaults, NPLs and credit costs. 


Australia - New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Index Rebalance

Virgin Australia Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia (VAH AU)</a> IPO in June 2025. All of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.</li>
<li>Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>


Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. All of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.
Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Bain Set for Full and Final US$600m Release

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">CommBank (CBA AU)</a> will announce FY2026 results on 12 August, with options expiring the following day providing direct exposure to the earnings event.</li>
<li>Options pricing implies a reporting-day move above the historical median, while the 11 August RBA decision adds to short-term volatility risk.</li>
<li>Gain insight into CBA’s reporting-day price history, option-implied move, Big Four peer volatility setup, dividend expectations, and index implications ahead of results.</li>
</ul>



CommBank (CBA AU) will announce FY2026 results on 12 August, with options expiring the following day providing direct exposure to the earnings event.
Options pricing implies a reporting-day move above the historical median, while the 11 August RBA decision adds to short-term volatility risk.
Gain insight into CBA’s reporting-day price history, option-implied move, Big Four peer volatility setup, dividend expectations, and index implications ahead of results.


CommBank (CBA AU): Expected Move on FY2026 Results and Option Insights

Australia

Macquarie Group Ltd. offers banking, financial advisory, investment and funds management services.  The Company offers financial advice, cash management, wealth management and private banking, life insurance, securities brokerage, corporate debt financing, real estate funds management, real estate development financing, investment funds management, and foreign exchange services.

Price Gauge
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Macquarie Group (MQG AU)

Australia Banks - Negative Loan Growth Reaches August 2021 Levels

With NAB results and peers, it is worthwhile keeping in mind this HFD on insolvencies, which has been for some time, pointing to worsening credit...

Daniel Tabbush

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 21st): JB Hi-Fi, CSL, Transurban, NEWMONT, Zip

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, CSL, Transurban, NEWMONT, Zip.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Australia - New Insolvencies Data: Construction Appointments at 829 Vs 588 YoY | Credit Risk Worsens

New insolvencies data is weakest in construction sector, but also there is major deterioration in accommodations, food, retail trade. The HFD...

Daniel Tabbush

Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Bain Set for Full and Final US$600m Release

Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. All of Bain’s stake could be...

Sumeet Singh

CommBank (CBA AU): Expected Move on FY2026 Results and Option Insights

Options pricing suggests an above-median move on 12 August, while the RBA decision adds volatility risk. Gain insight into CBA’s reporting-day...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)