Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 30th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Ase Technology H, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek, Evergreen Marine, Macronix Intl, Gigabyte Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 30th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Ase Technology H, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek, Evergreen Marine, Macronix Intl, Gigabyte Tech.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 30th): Wiwynn, ASE, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai shares have rallied to new 52-week highs; We update our model and sanity check the company's 2025E gross margin target.</li>
<li>Hon Hai can realize its target higher gross margin as its revenue mix changes between its legacy contract manufacturing and components/ higher value products revenue.</li>
<li>We maintain our 12-month price target of NT$155 per share, 35% above current levels and higher than the entire Street.</li>
</ul>


Hon Hai shares have rallied to new 52-week highs; We update our model and sanity check the company's 2025E gross margin target.
Hon Hai can realize its target higher gross margin as its revenue mix changes between its legacy contract manufacturing and components/ higher value products revenue.
We maintain our 12-month price target of NT$155 per share, 35% above current levels and higher than the entire Street.


Hon Hai: Hits New 52-Week Highs; Sanity Checking Management Guidance Shows Still More Upside

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.</li>
<li>Stocks with buy flows dropped 0.8% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 0.27%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -0.63% vs +1.99%.</li>
<li>The stocks with outflows have outperformed stocks with inflows by a huge margin in the recent past and short interest has jumped on most stocks recently.</li>
</ul>


The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.
Stocks with buy flows dropped 0.8% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 0.27%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -0.63% vs +1.99%.
The stocks with outflows have outperformed stocks with inflows by a huge margin in the recent past and short interest has jumped on most stocks recently.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the final ADDs/DELs for the TDIV, T50, and T100 Indices for the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Across these three indices there will be 18 changes and 15 of them were in line with expectations.</li>
<li>Our updated flow expectations show that there could be US$1.1bn one-way flow in the June 2023 rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the final ADDs/DELs for the TDIV, T50, and T100 Indices for the June 2023 Rebalance.
Across these three indices there will be 18 changes and 15 of them were in line with expectations.
Our updated flow expectations show that there could be US$1.1bn one-way flow in the June 2023 rebalance.


Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 23 Rebal: 15/18 as Expected; Some Surprises, US$1.1bn+ One Way

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a>'s TOPIX inclusion is this week. And the Real World Float has gotten smaller since the offering. And some of those people aren't going to sell near-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a> tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants. </li>
<li>Understanding real money demand on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> story is key. If there is any, that makes deal overhang smaller than it looks. </li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)'s TOPIX inclusion is this week. And the Real World Float has gotten smaller since the offering. And some of those people aren't going to sell near-term.

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)'s P/B is back down to 0.31x as Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK) tackles alleged language bias by flight attendants. 
Understanding real money demand on the Rakuten (4755 JP) story is key. If there is any, that makes deal overhang smaller than it looks. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Rakuten Bank/Group, Cathay/Swire Pacific, Japan Post

Taiwan

Macronix International Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) as well as memory products.  The Company's products include nonvolatile memory integrated circuits, mask ROM (Read Only Memory), EPROM (Erasable Programmable ROM), and flash memory products.  Macronix also produces logic ICs for audio, clock generators, and graphic application devices.

Price Gauge
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Macronix International (2337 TT)

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 30th): Wiwynn, ASE, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Ase Technology H, Makalot, Pegatron,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hon Hai: Hits New 52-Week Highs; Sanity Checking Management Guidance Shows Still More Upside

We maintain our 12-month price target of NT$155 per share, 35% above current levels and higher than the entire Street. We show how higher margin...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves

The 0056 TT ETF started rebalancing on Friday and that will continue for the next 4 trading days. The deletes and stocks with outflows have...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 23 Rebal: 15/18 as Expected; Some Surprises, US$1.1bn+ One Way

The T50 and TDIV standalone changes are significant but the T100 standalone changes are insignificant. The main pick trades suggested in my last...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Rakuten Bank/Group, Cathay/Swire Pacific, Japan Post

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 30th): Wiwynn, ASE, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Ase Technology H, Makalot, Pegatron,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hon Hai: Hits New 52-Week Highs; Sanity Checking Management Guidance Shows Still More Upside

We maintain our 12-month price target of NT$155 per share, 35% above current levels and higher than the entire Street. We show how higher margin...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves

The 0056 TT ETF started rebalancing on Friday and that will continue for the next 4 trading days. The deletes and stocks with outflows have...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 23 Rebal: 15/18 as Expected; Some Surprises, US$1.1bn+ One Way

The T50 and TDIV standalone changes are significant but the T100 standalone changes are insignificant. The main pick trades suggested in my last...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week In Event SPACE: Rakuten Bank/Group, Cathay/Swire Pacific, Japan Post

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Stock Moves