Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

The Reserve Bank Board meets today, a month after cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points&nbsp;to a multi-decade low of 2.25%.&nbsp; This followed an 18 month period of interest rate stability.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; There is a compelling case for the RBA to ease policy now to restore the psychology of risk taking in the economy and combat the new capital and cost discipline.&nbsp; But Mr Stevens has previously said that it is important that further cuts do not send a signal to the market that the economy is weak, at a time when consumer and business sentiment remain fragile.&nbsp; Thus, I believe that the May meeting presents the best opportunity to ease policy with the positive narrative of a lower inflation outlook following the release of the first quarter CPI in late April.

The Reserve Bank Board meets today, a month after cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points&nbsp;to a multi-decade low of 2.25%.&nbsp; This followed an 18 month period of interest rate stability.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; There is a compelling case for the RBA to ease policy now to restore the psychology of risk taking in the economy and combat the new capital and cost discipline.&nbsp; But Mr Stevens has previously said that it is important that further cuts do not send a signal to the market that the economy is weak, at a time when consumer and business sentiment remain fragile.&nbsp; Thus, I believe that the May meeting presents the best opportunity to ease policy with the positive narrative of a lower inflation outlook following the release of the first quarter CPI in late April.

The New Capital Discipline and the RBA's Line Ball Decision

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 9nd March, published ~9AM on the 13th March.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Diversified Metals/Mining". Net shorts decreased A$1.5bn WoW.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcmillan-shakespeare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1" rel="noopener">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silex-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20181:1" rel="noopener">Silex Systems (SLX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health (RHC AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26926:1" rel="noopener">News (NWS AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 9nd March, published ~9AM on the 13th March.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Diversified Metals/Mining". Net shorts decreased A$1.5bn WoW.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU), Silex Systems (SLX AU), Ramsay Health (RHC AU), and News (NWS AU).


Aussie Shorts (9th Mar 2026): CBA, Mcmillan Shakespeare, Silex Systems, Ramsay Health, News

As with most macroeconomic releases, there was something for everyone in today’s December quarter CPI. For the doves, the precipitous fall in petrol prices has pulled down the headline CPI which is around 1.6% higher than a year ago. For the hawks, the various measures of core or underlying inflation came in stronger than expected, growing by 0.66% in the quarter. Nonetheless, on a year on year basis, they remain close to the bottom end of the Reserve Bank’s inflation target range of 2-3%.

As with most macroeconomic releases, there was something for everyone in today’s December quarter CPI. For the doves, the precipitous fall in petrol prices has pulled down the headline CPI which is around 1.6% higher than a year ago. For the hawks, the various measures of core or underlying inflation came in stronger than expected, growing by 0.66% in the quarter. Nonetheless, on a year on year basis, they remain close to the bottom end of the Reserve Bank’s inflation target range of 2-3%.

Tame Inflation data and the bond market signal that the yield trade is yet to run its course

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently seven pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and two sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently seven pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and two sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (16 Feb 2026)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently five pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and three sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently five pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and three sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (9 Feb 2026)

Australia

Magellan Financial Group Ltd operates as an investment management company. The Company invests in global equities and listed infrastructure. Magellan Financial Group serves customers worldwide.

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Magellan Financial (MFG AU)

The New Capital Discipline and the RBA's Line Ball Decision

The Reserve Bank Board meets today, a month after cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to a multi-decade low of 2.25%. This...

Sam Ferraro

Aussie Shorts (9th Mar 2026): CBA, Mcmillan Shakespeare, Silex Systems, Ramsay Health, News

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU), Silex Systems...

David Blennerhassett

Tame Inflation data and the bond market signal that the yield trade is yet to run its course

As with most macroeconomic releases, there was something for everyone in today’s December quarter CPI. For the doves, the precipitous fall in...

Sam Ferraro

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (16 Feb 2026)

Statistical methodology identifies seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and two sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (9 Feb 2026)

Statistical methodology identifies five pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The New Capital Discipline and the RBA's Line Ball Decision

The Reserve Bank Board meets today, a month after cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to a multi-decade low of 2.25%. This...

Sam Ferraro

Aussie Shorts (9th Mar 2026): CBA, Mcmillan Shakespeare, Silex Systems, Ramsay Health, News

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU), Silex Systems...

David Blennerhassett

Tame Inflation data and the bond market signal that the yield trade is yet to run its course

As with most macroeconomic releases, there was something for everyone in today’s December quarter CPI. For the doves, the precipitous fall in...

Sam Ferraro

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (16 Feb 2026)

​Statistical methodology identifies seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and two sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (9 Feb 2026)

​Statistical methodology identifies five pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Statistical methodology identifies seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and two sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Statistical methodology identifies five pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors, offering unique insights into relative...