Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's Ministry of Tourism &amp; Culture reported mediocre holiday travel &amp; spending activity</li>
<li>Separately, Xinhua also reported underwhelming numbers from Dragon Boat Festival period</li>
<li>Weak travel numbers may indicate Chinese consumers remain uneasy about near-term outlook</li>
</ul>


China's Ministry of Tourism &amp; Culture reported mediocre holiday travel &amp; spending activity
Separately, Xinhua also reported underwhelming numbers from Dragon Boat Festival period
Weak travel numbers may indicate Chinese consumers remain uneasy about near-term outlook


Weak Spending over China's Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Period Suggests Tourists Remain Frugal

<ul>
<li>The growth of Chinese outbound activity slowed somewhat in April, to around +18-19% Y/Y</li>
<li>But domestic air activity rebounded to +8% Y/Y, the fastest monthly growth in six months</li>
<li>With strong pricing power, we still prefer China's airlines over travel platform Trip.com </li>
</ul>


The growth of Chinese outbound activity slowed somewhat in April, to around +18-19% Y/Y
But domestic air activity rebounded to +8% Y/Y, the fastest monthly growth in six months
With strong pricing power, we still prefer China's airlines over travel platform Trip.com 


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Domestic Activity Firmed in April | Airlines > TCOM (May 2025)

<ul>
<li>As in Q424, a sharp increase in OpEx led to margin compression at Trip.com in Q125</li>
<li>Trip.com's revenue growth in Q125 slowed vs Q424, but platform probably gained share</li>
<li>Within China's tourism segment, we still think the airlines can outperform Trip.com</li>
</ul>


As in Q424, a sharp increase in OpEx led to margin compression at Trip.com in Q125
Trip.com's revenue growth in Q125 slowed vs Q424, but platform probably gained share
Within China's tourism segment, we still think the airlines can outperform Trip.com


Trip.com Q125 Results | Rising Expenses Led to Margin Compression, Again | Still Prefer Airlines

<ul>
<li>March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend</li>
<li>Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors</li>
<li>Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts</li>
</ul>


March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend
Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors
Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In a rare move, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>-controlled <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> has <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/HKLH0424%20SGX.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=842372" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sold</a> nine floors (147,025 square feet) of One Exchange Square to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> for HK$6.3bn (US$810mn).</li>
<li>HKL plans to use the proceeds to provide enhancements to the property sold,  the reduction of net debt; and for a share buyback. Shares are up 9% as I type. </li>
<li>HKL is focussed on divesting US$4bn to US$6bn of its balance sheet assets in the next three years. HKL's CEO Michael Smith: "Recycling capital is our top priority right now".</li>
</ul>


In a rare move, Jardine Matheson (JM SP)-controlled Hongkong Land (HKL SP) has sold nine floors (147,025 square feet) of One Exchange Square to HKEX (388 HK) for HK$6.3bn (US$810mn).
HKL plans to use the proceeds to provide enhancements to the property sold,  the reduction of net debt; and for a share buyback. Shares are up 9% as I type. 
HKL is focussed on divesting US$4bn to US$6bn of its balance sheet assets in the next three years. HKL's CEO Michael Smith: "Recycling capital is our top priority right now".


Hongkong Land (HKL SP) Recycles Nine Floors Of One Exchange Square

Singapore

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is an owner and operator of luxury hotels, resorts, and residences. The Group now operates, or has under development, hotels in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa. Mandarin Oriental International also operates, or has under development, residences at Mandarin Oriental.

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

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Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Weak Spending over China's Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Period Suggests Tourists Remain Frugal

Headline travel activity numbers from China's recent Dragon Boat Festival suggest modest demand growth and a Chinese consumer keeping a tight grip...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Domestic Activity Firmed in April | Airlines > TCOM (May 2025)

The growth of Chinese domestic air travel activity in April accelerated to almost 8% after slumping to < 1% in Q125. High domestic passenger load...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q125 Results | Rising Expenses Led to Margin Compression, Again | Still Prefer Airlines

China's leading travel platform Trip.com reported an unimpressive set of results earlier this week, as a sharp rise in OpEx led to margin compression.

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

Hongkong Land (HKL SP) Recycles Nine Floors Of One Exchange Square

More upside to come. This is one of the few bright spots in the Hong Kong commercial/office property space. Even after today's move, HKL is trading...

David Blennerhassett

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