Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

China Southern Airlines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After an upturn in October-November, pace of outbound air travel softened in December</li>
<li>But domestic air activity continued to strengthen in December -- a positive surprise</li>
<li>Continued strength of outbound air travel demand could imply emphasis on frugality</li>
</ul>


After an upturn in October-November, pace of outbound air travel softened in December
But domestic air activity continued to strengthen in December -- a positive surprise
Continued strength of outbound air travel demand could imply emphasis on frugality


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | December Outbound Pace Softer, but Domestic Activity Strengthened

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in August 2024, Jakob Stausholm, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a>'s previous CEO, said any stock issuance to fund <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>'s takeover would just add a layer of complexity.</li>
<li>Eight months later, Stausholm "stepped down", with Simon Trot taking over the reins. Now the mining giant has revived talks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a>, via an all-scrip Offer.</li>
<li>Given Rio's dual-headed structure, the deal mechanics for Glencore have not been publicly fleshed out. The drop in the Aussie line is indicative. </li>
</ul>


Back in August 2024, Jakob Stausholm, Rio Tinto (RIO AU)'s previous CEO, said any stock issuance to fund Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)'s takeover would just add a layer of complexity.
Eight months later, Stausholm "stepped down", with Simon Trot taking over the reins. Now the mining giant has revived talks with Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), via an all-scrip Offer.
Given Rio's dual-headed structure, the deal mechanics for Glencore have not been publicly fleshed out. The drop in the Aussie line is indicative. 


Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia / Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004, as MSCI cites Indonesia's persistent ‘fundamental investability issues’.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on JCNC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level, dating back to 2004, as MSCI cites Indonesia's persistent ‘fundamental investability issues’.
Preceding my comments on JCNC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: JCNC's "Outperformance" As MSCI Flags Indo's Investability Issues

<ul>
<li>I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-fuels-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12230:1" rel="noopener">Energy Fuels (UUUU US)</a>'s cash/scrip tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-strategic-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30815:1" rel="noopener">Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rpmglobal-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16492:1" rel="noopener">RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16784:1" rel="noopener">Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Energy Fuels (UUUU US)'s cash/scrip tilt for Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU).
Key updates/news also took place on: RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), Qube Holdings (QUB AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Raksul Inc (4384 JP),Ijm Corp Bhd (IJM MK).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Australian Strategic Materials, Qube, Dongfeng Motor, Raksul, IJM Corp

<ul>
<li>I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunway-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11025:1" rel="noopener">Sunway Bhd (SWB MK)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijm-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16784:1" rel="noopener">IJMCorp (IJM MK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC  (2268 HK)</a>'s tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biodlink-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28192:1" rel="noopener">BioDlink International (1875 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minmetals-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1917:1" rel="noopener">Minmetals Land (230 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/low-keng-huat-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1928:1" rel="noopener">Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Sunway Bhd (SWB MK)'s Offer for IJMCorp (IJM MK), and WuXi XDC  (2268 HK)'s tilt for BioDlink International (1875 HK).
Key updates/news also took place on: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Minmetals Land (230 HK), and Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Industries, BioDlink, IJM Corp, Dongfeng Motor, Minmetals Land

Hong Kong

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is a multinational hospitality and management group that owns and operates luxury hotels, resorts, and residences across Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The company also engages in hotel and residences branding, management, and property development activities, offering luxury accommodations, fine dining, and wellness facilities. It was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | December Outbound Pace Softer, but Domestic Activity Strengthened

The surprisingly strong upturn in Chinese outbound in October-November did not continue in December, unfortunately. But domestic air travel...

Tracking Traffic

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Glencore Musings

Ahead of the 5th Feb PUSU deadline, Rio's UK investors are (reportedly) pushing the Glencore merger to maintain its UK listing. Still, IF the DLC...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: JCNC's "Outperformance" As MSCI Flags Indo's Investability Issues

MSCI's review is a material overhang. Yet, even absent this index review fallout, I'd expect JCNC to benefit from an ongoing business review...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Australian Strategic Materials, Qube, Dongfeng Motor, Raksul, IJM Corp

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Toyota Industries, BioDlink, IJM Corp, Dongfeng Motor, Minmetals Land

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)