Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Outbound travel recovery remains sluggish, activity still far below 2019 levels</li>
<li>Domestic activity up 5% Y/Y in June, now well above pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>Trip.com gaining share during extended recovery, trades on 14x PER, BUY</li>
</ul>


Outbound travel recovery remains sluggish, activity still far below 2019 levels
Domestic activity up 5% Y/Y in June, now well above pre-Covid levels
Trip.com gaining share during extended recovery, trades on 14x PER, BUY


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Sluggish, but Trip.com Too Cheap | (July 2024)

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Mandarin Oriental International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This is the final installment in our series on the APAC Luxury Industry, where we highlighted that luxury travel might offer more appealing opportunities than traditional luxury goods.</li>
<li>While travel has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, traditional luxury goods have shown very low demand in recent months.</li>
<li>Below, we analyze recent trends in luxury travel for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minor-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2154:1" rel="noopener">Minor International (MINT TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


This is the final installment in our series on the APAC Luxury Industry, where we highlighted that luxury travel might offer more appealing opportunities than traditional luxury goods.
While travel has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, traditional luxury goods have shown very low demand in recent months.
Below, we analyze recent trends in luxury travel for Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Minor International (MINT TB), and Shiseido Company (4911 JP).


APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>, 75.67%-held by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0711/2024071100267.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it is considering a second listing on an overseas stock exchange, such as London.</li>
<li>A UK-listing makes perfect sense. In excess of 90% of CKI's FY23 profit was sourced from businesses outside Asia, with ~50% from its UK ops.</li>
<li>The wording in the announcement is unclear - a dual primary listing, or a secondary listing? The LSE is also undergoing a listing regime change, effective 29th July.</li>
</ul>



CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK), 75.67%-held by CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), announced it is considering a second listing on an overseas stock exchange, such as London.
A UK-listing makes perfect sense. In excess of 90% of CKI's FY23 profit was sourced from businesses outside Asia, with ~50% from its UK ops.
The wording in the announcement is unclear - a dual primary listing, or a secondary listing? The LSE is also undergoing a listing regime change, effective 29th July.


<ul>
<li>In its 14th May quarterly review, MSCI <a href="https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May24_STPublicList.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> will be removed from its index effective 31 May. Shares closed down 4.3% on the 15th.</li>
<li>JCNC announced yesterday that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> has lifted its stake to 81.058% from 79.866%. </li>
<li>JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. The simple ratio (JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>) is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC. A takeover from parent Matheson is unlikely.</li>
</ul>


In its 14th May quarterly review, MSCI announced  Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) will be removed from its index effective 31 May. Shares closed down 4.3% on the 15th.
JCNC announced yesterday that Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) has lifted its stake to 81.058% from 79.866%. 
JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. The simple ratio (JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ)) is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC. A takeover from parent Matheson is unlikely.


Jardines Bumps JCNC Stake Post MSCI Deletion

<ul>
<li>Growth of outbound Chinese travel demand strong in May as HK, Macau slow</li>
<li>Domestic travel demand also showed solid growth in May and early June</li>
<li>Trip.com appears reasonably cheap now that it's dipped below US$50, BUY</li>
</ul>


Growth of outbound Chinese travel demand strong in May as HK, Macau slow
Domestic travel demand also showed solid growth in May and early June
Trip.com appears reasonably cheap now that it's dipped below US$50, BUY


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)

Singapore

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is an owner and operator of luxury hotels, resorts, and residences. The Group now operates, or has under development, hotels in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa. Mandarin Oriental International also operates, or has under development, residences at Mandarin Oriental.

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Sluggish, but Trip.com Too Cheap | (July 2024)

Outbound Chinese travel demand continued its sluggish recovery in June, but remains far below 2019 levels. Tourism-linked shares have performed...

Tracking Traffic

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline

Luxury travel has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, demand for traditional luxury goods has remained very low in recent months.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling

CKI announced it is considering a second listing on an overseas exchange such as London. But a dual primary listing, or a secondary listing? The...

David Blennerhassett

Jardines Bumps JCNC Stake Post MSCI Deletion

Jardine Matheson clears 83% in JCNC, up from ~78% at the beginning of the year. I see JCNC's NAV PREMIUM at 17%, down from a recent high of 29%....

David Blennerhassett

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)

May outbound Chinese travel demand was strong, apparently driven by tourists shifting flying outside the Asian region. Domestic demand growth also...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Sluggish, but Trip.com Too Cheap | (July 2024)

Outbound Chinese travel demand continued its sluggish recovery in June, but remains far below 2019 levels. Tourism-linked shares have performed...

Tracking Traffic

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline

​Luxury travel has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, demand for traditional luxury goods has remained very low in recent months.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

CK Infra (1038 HK): London Calling

CKI announced it is considering a second listing on an overseas exchange such as London. But a dual primary listing, or a secondary listing? The...

David Blennerhassett

Jardines Bumps JCNC Stake Post MSCI Deletion

Jardine Matheson clears 83% in JCNC, up from ~78% at the beginning of the year. I see JCNC's NAV PREMIUM at 17%, down from a recent high of 29%....

David Blennerhassett

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Expands | Domestic Solid Too | (June 2024)

May outbound Chinese travel demand was strong, apparently driven by tourists shifting flying outside the Asian region. Domestic demand growth also...

Tracking Traffic

Luxury travel has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, demand for traditional luxury goods has remained very low in recent months.