Research from Superfluous Value, Superfluous Value

Superfluous Value

Research from Superfluous Value

Stock selection has rarely been as important as it is today. After a roaring decade for US markets and with signs of mania everywhere, the S&P 500 as over-priced as it has ever been.

But, there is better way. Superfluous Value is a contrarian, deep-dive into the markets forgotten by the 60/40 instos and indexing, momentum chasers. Where the hot money has long moved on, it leaves behind investments offering great safety and prospective returns.

I believe the 2020s will look diametrically opposite to the recent past, with Emerging Markets, the UK, Japan and commodities set to rip and I intend to be holding the best opportunities available as they do.

Please feel free to come along on the journey.

Contrarian Deep-Dive into the Markets

Equity Bottom-Up

Mandarin Oriental International / Equity Bottom-Up

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

<ul><li>Mandarin owns the One Causeway Bay precinct which is likely worth more than the company’s current Enterprise Value ($2.4b) having recieved an offer of $3.8b for the site in 2017.</li><li>For those unfamiliar, this site is being massively re-developed into retail and office- not a hotel as might be expected given the company.</li><li>Mandarin is transitioning to a capital light hotel management model by selling its owned hotels and maintaining management contracts with the purchasers.</li></ul>

Mandarin owns the One Causeway Bay precinct which is likely worth more than the company’s current Enterprise Value ($2.4b) having recieved an offer of $3.8b for the site in 2017.For those unfamiliar, this site is being massively re-developed into retail and office- not a hotel as might be expected given the company.Mandarin is transitioning to a capital light hotel management model by selling its owned hotels and maintaining management contracts with the purchasers.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia / Event-Driven

Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value is around its highest-ever level.</li>
<li>The simple ratio of JCNC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC.</li>
<li>A weak Indonesian rupiah is likely a factor. Still, JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. A takeover from parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> is idealistic.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value is around its highest-ever level.
The simple ratio of JCNC/Astra International (ASII IJ) is around its highest level outside the 2008 GFC.
A weak Indonesian rupiah is likely a factor. Still, JCNC is trading rich to its NAV. A takeover from parent Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is idealistic.


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>This is a follow-up to our initial report on the APAC Luxury Industry where we were of the belief that small niches within the luxury sector could offer potential opportunities.</li>
<li>Below, we analyse the recent trends in luxury travel on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minor-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2154:1" rel="noopener">Minor International (MINT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing signs of improvement. </li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up to our initial report on the APAC Luxury Industry where we were of the belief that small niches within the luxury sector could offer potential opportunities.
Below, we analyse the recent trends in luxury travel on Minor International (MINT TB), Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) and Shiseido Company (4911 JP).
While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing signs of improvement. 


APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region</li>
<li>In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)</li>
<li>As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth</li>
</ul>


China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region
In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)
As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth


China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data</li>
<li>Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)</li>
<li>As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture</li>
</ul>


Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data
Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)
As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture


August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

Hong Kong

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is a multinational hospitality and management group that owns and operates luxury hotels, resorts, and residences across Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas. The company also engages in hotel and residences branding, management, and property development activities, offering luxury accommodations, fine dining, and wellness facilities. It was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Mandarin Oriental: Don't Lose Money

Mandarin owns the One Causeway Bay precinct which is likely worth more than the company’s current Enterprise Value ($2.4b) having recieved an offer...

Superfluous Value

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Is A Short

Jardine Cycle & Carriage's premium to NAV is not justifiable. I'd look to reverse the stub here - Short JCNC, Long Astra.

David Blennerhassett

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

By almost every measure, August's US border crossing data look even weaker than the mediocre numbers from July. Clearly, US travel and leisure...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mandarin Oriental: Don't Lose Money

Mandarin owns the One Causeway Bay precinct which is likely worth more than the company’s current Enterprise Value ($2.4b) having recieved an offer...

Superfluous Value

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Is A Short

Jardine Cycle & Carriage's premium to NAV is not justifiable. I'd look to reverse the stub here - Short JCNC, Long Astra.

David Blennerhassett

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices

While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

By almost every measure, August's US border crossing data look even weaker than the mediocre numbers from July. Clearly, US travel and leisure...

Tracking Traffic