Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Then-Underperforming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:106:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)</a> announced a merger on the last day of 2021. Then it underperformed some more.</li>
<li>The price uplift for MAGIC unitholders was lost. FYQ3 Earnings announced in late January were good for both (better for MNACT), but MCT is still underperforming the sector.</li>
<li>That seems to set MCT buyers up for a Heads I Win Tails I Win scenario.</li>
</ul>


Then-Underperforming Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP) and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP) announced a merger on the last day of 2021. Then it underperformed some more.
The price uplift for MAGIC unitholders was lost. FYQ3 Earnings announced in late January were good for both (better for MNACT), but MCT is still underperforming the sector.
That seems to set MCT buyers up for a Heads I Win Tails I Win scenario.


Mapletree Commercial Trust - Heads I Win Tails I Win?

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> announces an off-market buyback, there will be demand to replace the shares bought back, re-based higher.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a>is trading cheap as Elliott throws in the towel.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> selldown could be larger than people expect, and it is a decent chance to put on the arb trade. </li>
</ul>


If BHP Group (BHP AU) announces an off-market buyback, there will be demand to replace the shares bought back, re-based higher.

Bank of East Asia (23 HK)is trading cheap as Elliott throws in the towel.
The Sydney Airport (SYD AU) selldown could be larger than people expect, and it is a decent chance to put on the arb trade. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank Of East Asia, Sydney Airport, Boral

<ul>
<li>There are currently 46 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate (IAP AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daifuku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10408:1" rel="noopener">Daifuku (6383 JP)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16711:1" rel="noopener">Contec Co (6639 JP)</a>; Hinode for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/at-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4391:1" rel="noopener">At Group Co (8293 JP)</a>.
</li>
<li>Keys updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icar-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17682:1" rel="noopener">iCar Asia (ICQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus Group (AVN AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a> 
</li>
</ul>


There are currently 46 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deals were discussed this week: Charter Hall (CHC AU) for Irongate (IAP AU); Daifuku (6383 JP) for Contec Co (6639 JP); Hinode for At Group Co (8293 JP).

Keys updates took place for: Virtus Health (VRT AU), iCar Asia (ICQ AU), Aventus Group (AVN AU),Sydney Airport (SYD AU), and China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) 



Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Irongate, Virtus, ICar Asia, Aventus, Sydney Airport, CLPH

Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of January, 6 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~18%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of January, 6 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~18%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitaland-integrated-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:105" rel="noopener">Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP)</a> 2H21 DPU -8.9% YoY; Office cap rates compressed while retail rental reversions improving   </li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)</a> 3Q22 Business Updates – High occupancies a priority against falling reversions</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascott-residence-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6560" rel="noopener">Ascott Residence Trust (ART SP)</a> 2H21 DPU +14% YoY; RevPAU rebounded strongly with plenty of growth initiatives in the pipelines</li></ul>

Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP) 2H21 DPU -8.9% YoY; Office cap rates compressed while retail rental reversions improving   Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP) 3Q22 Business Updates – High occupancies a priority against falling reversionsAscott Residence Trust (ART SP) 2H21 DPU +14% YoY; RevPAU rebounded strongly with plenty of growth initiatives in the pipelines

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (28Jan22) - CICT Office Cap Rates Compressed

Singapore

Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust operates as a real estate investment trust. The Company manages and invests in commercial properties, including logistics, industrial spaces, and office buildings. Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust serves customers in Asia.

Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)

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Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)

Mapletree Commercial Trust - Heads I Win Tails I Win?

Mapletree Commercial Trust has underperformed - first as a retail property REIT suffering from a lack of tourism, second from possible deal...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank Of East Asia, Sydney Airport, Boral

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Irongate, Virtus, ICar Asia, Aventus, Sydney Airport, CLPH

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: January 2022 Roundup

For the month of January, 6 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new...

David Blennerhassett

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (28Jan22) - CICT Office Cap Rates Compressed

MAGIC high occupancy a priority; ART RevPAU rebounded strongly; CDREIT underlying operations recovering; FHT QoQ ongoing recovery; MREIT to acquire...

SCCM Asia Research

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52-week Range

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