Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 19 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). With US$40.1bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes this year, though near-term performance has been meh. There was a similar trend in March and the adds could outperform nearer to implementation.</li>
</ul>


There are 19 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). With US$40.1bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The adds have outperformed the deletes this year, though near-term performance has been meh. There was a similar trend in March and the adds could outperform nearer to implementation.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>With three more trading days left in the reference period, we are presenting our final  expectations for ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see five changes for the NIFTY 100 index which will also affect the NIFTY Next 50 index. There could also be multiple changes for the NIFTY 50 index.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
With three more trading days left in the reference period, we are presenting our final  expectations for ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
We see five changes for the NIFTY 100 index which will also affect the NIFTY Next 50 index. There could also be multiple changes for the NIFTY 50 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Marico’s 1QFY25 results were in line with the preview update released by the company</li><li>Domestic volume growth of 4% during 1QFY25 was on expected lines</li><li>We maintain Marico as a high-conviction BUY within staples with a TP of Rs 725 (50x June-26 EPS, 20% premium to its 5-year average PE) and upgrade the target multiple from 45x to 50x, as the worst is behind us w.r.t muted volume growth, pricing correction, loss related to new business and transient currency headwinds</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Marico’s 1QFY25 results were in line with the preview update released by the companyDomestic volume growth of 4% during 1QFY25 was on expected linesWe maintain Marico as a high-conviction BUY within staples with a TP of Rs 725 (50x June-26 EPS, 20% premium to its 5-year average PE) and upgrade the target multiple from 45x to 50x, as the worst is behind us w.r.t muted volume growth, pricing correction, loss related to new business and transient currency headwindsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Marico (1QFY25 Results Review): All Ducks in a Row for a Healthy Volume Revival.

<ul>
<li>The review period for the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index ends in August. The changes will be announced mid-September and implemented at the close on 27 September.</li>
<li>Four potential constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 16% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.71bn (US$80m).</li>
<li>Three of the four potential deletions are due to a change in the index universe and there will be selling from other passive trackers too.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 Index ends in August. The changes will be announced mid-September and implemented at the close on 27 September.
Four potential constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 16% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.71bn (US$80m).
Three of the four potential deletions are due to a change in the index universe and there will be selling from other passive trackers too.


NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes in September

<ul>
<li>With 3 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 18% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 55bn (US$660m). 9 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>All the deletes are F&amp;O members while most adds are not. NSE Indices may have to revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.</li>
</ul>


With 3 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 18% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 55bn (US$660m). 9 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
All the deletes are F&amp;O members while most adds are not. NSE Indices may have to revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

India

Marico is an Indian multinational consumer goods company specializing in beauty, wellness, and personal care products. It offers brands in categories such as hair care, skin care, edible oils, health foods, male grooming, and fabric care, including iconic brands like Parachute, Saffola, Set Wet, and Livon. Marico is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded on April 2, 1990.

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Marico (MRCO IN)

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 19 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 19 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 8.2bn (US$98m). There are many...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Final Expectations; Trades Perform Positively; New Ideas

The official index changes for the NIFTY September 2024 index rebal event will be confirmed after market close on Friday 23rd August 2024. In this...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Marico (1QFY25 Results Review): All Ducks in a Row for a Healthy Volume Revival.

Marico’s 1QFY25 results were in line with the preview update released by the company. Domestic volume growth of 4% during 1QFY25 was on expected lines

HDFC Securities

NIFTY100 Low Volatility 30 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Changes in September

Four constituent changes, volatility changes and capping changes will result in one-way turnover of 16% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.71bn...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

There could be 7 changes for the Nifty Next 50. The addition of non-FnO stocks and deletion of FnO stocks raises index replication issues. Expect...

Brian Freitas

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