Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

<ul>
<li>The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.</li>
<li>There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. </li>
<li>Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. </li>
</ul>


The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.
There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. 
Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. 


Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We discuss a pair trade among the major Japanese trading companies. We propose going long on Marubeni Corp and going short on Itochu. </li>
<li>We believe Marubeni has one of the most attractive valuations among the five major Japanese trading companies in terms of ROE vs. P/B and Itochu is the least attractive.</li>
<li>We like Marubeni's strength in food and agri businesses. Itochu is more dependent on metals, minerals and energy sectors which tend to be more volatile. </li>
</ul>


We discuss a pair trade among the major Japanese trading companies. We propose going long on Marubeni Corp and going short on Itochu. 
We believe Marubeni has one of the most attractive valuations among the five major Japanese trading companies in terms of ROE vs. P/B and Itochu is the least attractive.
We like Marubeni's strength in food and agri businesses. Itochu is more dependent on metals, minerals and energy sectors which tend to be more volatile. 


A Pair Trade of Japanese General Trading Companies: Long Marubeni & Short Itochu

Posco International Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

Posco International Corporation (047050 KS)

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we review Warren Buffett's stakes in Japanese trading  companies and review investment opportunities in Korean trading companies amid a war between Russia and Ukraine. </li>
<li>The recent war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in <strong>higher commodities prices.</strong> This has boosted the share prices of commodities related companies globally, including <strong>Japanese and Korean trading companies.</strong>
</li>
<li><strong>We would focus on GS Global Corp, Hanwha Corporation, Posco International Corporation, and LX International as Korean trading companies that could continue to outperform the market amid war in Ukraine. </strong></li>
</ul>


In this insight, we review Warren Buffett's stakes in Japanese trading  companies and review investment opportunities in Korean trading companies amid a war between Russia and Ukraine. 
The recent war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in higher commodities prices. This has boosted the share prices of commodities related companies globally, including Japanese and Korean trading companies.

We would focus on GS Global Corp, Hanwha Corporation, Posco International Corporation, and LX International as Korean trading companies that could continue to outperform the market amid war in Ukraine. 


Buffett’s Stakes in Japanese Trading Firms & A Review of Korean Trading Firms Amid War in Ukraine

<ul>
<li>Itochu today announced a buyback program to buy US$500mm+ in the next 10 weeks. </li>
<li>Net income growth, a rising dividend, and balanced risk book help it perform with low beta and medium correlation to peers. </li>
<li>The low volatility-relative multiple is supportive, and the buyback helps, but style bias vs Peers matters more. </li>
</ul>


Itochu today announced a buyback program to buy US$500mm+ in the next 10 weeks. 
Net income growth, a rising dividend, and balanced risk book help it perform with low beta and medium correlation to peers. 
The low volatility-relative multiple is supportive, and the buyback helps, but style bias vs Peers matters more. 


Short-Term Itochu Buyback - A Cushion, But Style Bias Matters More

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/033/original/2020-09-15_10-23-17.png?1600133037" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159033"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE BUFFETT TRADE</strong> - Much has already written on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway</a>'s purchase of stakes in Japan's sogo shosha, including on this <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-quick-look-at-the-buffet-trade-and-the-most-obvious-follow-ons" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43125" rel="noopener">platform</a>. The Japanese trading houses have a long and proud tradition and continue to attract the best talent from at home and abroad. In many respects, they have similarities with BH given their long-term approach to investing and focus on free cash flow generation. The differences are as striking, particularly the exposure to commodities and Asia, and the implications for both BH and Japan are profound.</p><p>In this<strong> DETAIL</strong> section, we examine: -</p><ul>
<li>the macro 'logic' driving these investments,</li>
<li>a more appropriate analytical and valuation methodology for these companies</li>
<li>the historically most-correlated peer groups and companies from both a technical and fundamental perspective if this trade were to be applied more broadly to the Japanese market. </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>We can summarise our approach to understanding the rationale behind the Buffett trade in the chart below. The sogo shosha are, in aggregate, significant generators of Residual Comprehensive Income, particularly relative to their current market valuations. Priced at a historically low 0.93x book, Japan's trading houses are one of the world's better deep value trades.</strong></p></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/053/original/2020-09-15_13-42-01.png?1600144936" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159053"></figure>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsTHE BUFFETT TRADE - Much has already written on Berkshire Hathaway's purchase of stakes in Japan's sogo shosha, including on this platform. The Japanese trading houses have a long and proud tradition and continue to attract the best talent from at home and abroad. In many respects, they have similarities with BH given their long-term approach to investing and focus on free cash flow generation. The differences are as striking, particularly the exposure to commodities and Asia, and the implications for both BH and Japan are profound.In this DETAIL section, we examine: -
the macro 'logic' driving these investments,
a more appropriate analytical and valuation methodology for these companies
the historically most-correlated peer groups and companies from both a technical and fundamental perspective if this trade were to be applied more broadly to the Japanese market. 
We can summarise our approach to understanding the rationale behind the Buffett trade in the chart below. The sogo shosha are, in aggregate, significant generators of Residual Comprehensive Income, particularly relative to their current market valuations. Priced at a historically low 0.93x book, Japan's trading houses are one of the world's better deep value trades.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Analysing The "Buffett Trade", Valuing the Sogo Shosha & The Return of Asian Inflation

Japan

Marubeni Corporation is a trading company with business divisions in iron & steel, information technology, utility & infrastructure, energy, food, metals & mineral resources, development & construction, and chemicals.  The Company markets its products globally through a network of sales offices and representative firms.

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Marubeni Corp (8002 JP)

Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

There are 2+ days until the last stage of the TSE FFW Rebalance is done. This time sees more changes because of increased share cancellation in...

Travis Lundy

A Pair Trade of Japanese General Trading Companies: Long Marubeni & Short Itochu

We discuss a pair trade among the major Japanese trading companies. We propose going long on Marubeni Corp and going short on Itochu.

Douglas Kim

Buffett’s Stakes in Japanese Trading Firms & A Review of Korean Trading Firms Amid War in Ukraine

We would focus on GS Corp, Hanwha Corporation, Posco International Corporation, and LX International as Korean trading companies that could...

Douglas Kim

Short-Term Itochu Buyback - A Cushion, But Style Bias Matters More

Itochu has announced a buyback to execute in the next 10 weeks. It is a decent part of ADV but not overwhelming. It should support the stock vs...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Analysing The "Buffett Trade", Valuing the Sogo Shosha & The Return of Asian Inflation

THE BUFFETT TRADE - Much has written on $ber

Campbell Gunn

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