Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>IC design firms remain positive about 2025 outlook despite uncertainties for 1Q25, showing resilience in the industry.</li><li>Taiwan evaluates consequences of Trump's potential revocation of China's trade status, highlighting potential geopolitical impacts.</li><li>JSR's construction of new EUV photoresist plant in S. Korea demonstrates commitment to meeting semiconductor demand in the region and globally.</li></ul>

IC design firms remain positive about 2025 outlook despite uncertainties for 1Q25, showing resilience in the industry.Taiwan evaluates consequences of Trump's potential revocation of China's trade status, highlighting potential geopolitical impacts.JSR's construction of new EUV photoresist plant in S. Korea demonstrates commitment to meeting semiconductor demand in the region and globally.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-Nov-2024): IC design firms optimistic for 2025, cautious about 1Q25.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>QCOM estimates ~5% Android revenues growth Cagr to FY29, Automotive 22%, IoT 21%. If QCOM keeps Apple business, revenue Cagr will be 9% to FY29. If QCOM loses it: 6%.</li>
<li>Mngt forecasts high Opex control, target at 22% of revenue, which looks aggressive. Opex reached 31% in FY23-24 . At 22% Opex, Operating Profit would grow ~13% Cagr to FY29.</li>
<li>Android growth looks low, Opex control demanding. As such, we could conclude that 10% Operating Profit Cagr is more likely than 13%. Even with lower growth, the stock is cheap. </li>
</ul>


QCOM estimates ~5% Android revenues growth Cagr to FY29, Automotive 22%, IoT 21%. If QCOM keeps Apple business, revenue Cagr will be 9% to FY29. If QCOM loses it: 6%.
Mngt forecasts high Opex control, target at 22% of revenue, which looks aggressive. Opex reached 31% in FY23-24 . At 22% Opex, Operating Profit would grow ~13% Cagr to FY29.
Android growth looks low, Opex control demanding. As such, we could conclude that 10% Operating Profit Cagr is more likely than 13%. Even with lower growth, the stock is cheap. 


Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.</li>
<li>Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.</li>
<li>Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. </li>
</ul>


China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.
Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.
Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. 


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 15th which has an aggregated holding worth USD999.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,830mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Eva Airways, Mitac, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Chailease, UMC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 15th which has an aggregated holding worth USD999.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,830mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Eva Airways, Mitac, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Chailease, UMC.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 15th): Eva Airways, Mitac, TSMC, Quanta Computer

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.</li>
<li>Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.</li>
<li>Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214. </li>
</ul>


TSMC: more restrictions on export to China. TSMC can’t make 2nm in US before 2028-29. Lawsuit in Arizona.
Korea: special chips act to give chipmakers subsidies and an exemption from a national cap on working hours. Korean engineers only work 52 hours / week. That’s a problem.
Amazon more in-house AI chips. Super Micro trying to avoid delisting. Smartphone ASP keep increasing because chip prices are increasing (ie Mediatek, Qualcomm). AI PC reaching 20% in 3Q214. 


Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-Nov-2024): IC design firms optimistic for 2025, cautious about 1Q25.

IC design firms optimistic for 2025, Taiwan monitors trade impact, JSR builds EUV plant, Japan cuts APB funding, MediaTek aims at Indian market,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29

QCOM expects 5% Android revenue growth, 22% in Automotive, 21% in IoT to FY29. Opex target at 22% of revenue, implying 13% Operating Profit Cagr....

Nicolas Baratte

Active GEM Funds: Positioning Chart Pack

In this chart pack, we highlight the key country, sector and stock exposures among active Emerging Markets equity funds.

Steven Holden

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 15th): Eva Airways, Mitac, TSMC, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Eva Airways, Mitac, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-Nov-2024): IC design firms optimistic for 2025, cautious about 1Q25.

IC design firms optimistic for 2025, Taiwan monitors trade impact, JSR builds EUV plant, Japan cuts APB funding, MediaTek aims at Indian market,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Qualcomm Investor Day: Based on Management Forecasts, Best Case 13% Operating Profit Cagr to FY29

​QCOM expects 5% Android revenue growth, 22% in Automotive, 21% in IoT to FY29. Opex target at 22% of revenue, implying 13% Operating Profit Cagr....

Nicolas Baratte

Active GEM Funds: Positioning Chart Pack

In this chart pack, we highlight the key country, sector and stock exposures among active Emerging Markets equity funds.

Steven Holden

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 15th): Eva Airways, Mitac, TSMC, Quanta Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Eva Airways, Mitac, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Hon...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tech News This Week: TSMC, Samsung, Amazon / Nvidia, Super Micro, Smartphone ASP Increasing, AI PC

​TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...

Nicolas Baratte

QCOM expects 5% Android revenue growth, 22% in Automotive, 21% in IoT to FY29. Opex target at 22% of revenue, implying 13% Operating Profit Cagr....

TSMC faces export restrictions to China. Korea offers subsidies to chipmakers, but faces labor issue. Amazon ramps up AI chip production. Chip...