Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Taiwan AI Plays Top Losers Recently, Dell Results Coming Today U.S. Time to Provide Color for PCs and Servers</li>
<li>Taiwan Tech Post-Earnings Takeaways: Semis Margins Underestimated? Hardware 2024E Forecasts Ramped</li>
<li>Nanya, Yageo Top Gainers; We Rate the Stocks Outperform and Structural Long Respectively</li>
</ul>


Taiwan AI Plays Top Losers Recently, Dell Results Coming Today U.S. Time to Provide Color for PCs and Servers
Taiwan Tech Post-Earnings Takeaways: Semis Margins Underestimated? Hardware 2024E Forecasts Ramped
Nanya, Yageo Top Gainers; We Rate the Stocks Outperform and Structural Long Respectively


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Top Losers; Dell to Provide PC/Server Color; Post-3Q Results Takeaways

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>TSMC is expected to experience growth of ~15% YoY in 2024F.</li>
<li>TSMC's N3 is expected to dominate the market in 2024F, with applications in CPU, GPU, smartphone SoC, and more.</li>
<li>We also estimate that the N2 pilot run will begin in 4Q24.</li>
</ul>


TSMC is expected to experience growth of ~15% YoY in 2024F.
TSMC's N3 is expected to dominate the market in 2024F, with applications in CPU, GPU, smartphone SoC, and more.
We also estimate that the N2 pilot run will begin in 4Q24.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2024 High Conviction for Upside >15% YoY

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 24th which has an aggregated holding worth USD675.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,213mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 24th which has an aggregated holding worth USD675.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,213mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 24th): TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The capping for the Hang Seng family of indices will use closing prices from 28 November while implementation will take place at the close on 1 December.</li>
<li>The changes for the next <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> rebalance will be announced after the close of trading on 1 December.</li>
<li>It was another week of inflows for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EMXC US)</a> to take units outstanding to a new high.</li>
</ul>


The capping for the Hang Seng family of indices will use closing prices from 28 November while implementation will take place at the close on 1 December.
The changes for the next S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) rebalance will be announced after the close of trading on 1 December.
It was another week of inflows for the iShares Emerging Markets (EMXC US) to take units outstanding to a new high.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, Div+, Top50, ASX, FXI, Xiaomi, Tata Tech

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SEMI reports Oct front/back end equipment billings decline of 14% and 18% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 18% and 24% y/y decline in September, implying early signs of recovery.</li>
<li>WSTS/SIA earlier reported September sales of US$44.89bn, up 1.9% m/m and down only 4% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and pass the cycle trough.</li>
<li>We are positive on SOX INDEX likely to break new high of over 4,000 in six months and expect PC/smartphone/training AI semi and DRAM semi/equipment vendors to outperform in short.</li>
</ul>


SEMI reports Oct front/back end equipment billings decline of 14% and 18% y/y, respectively, which was improved from 18% and 24% y/y decline in September, implying early signs of recovery.
WSTS/SIA earlier reported September sales of US$44.89bn, up 1.9% m/m and down only 4% y/y (vs. 16% decline in June), suggesting semi sales y/y improvement and pass the cycle trough.
We are positive on SOX INDEX likely to break new high of over 4,000 in six months and expect PC/smartphone/training AI semi and DRAM semi/equipment vendors to outperform in short.


What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Top Losers; Dell to Provide PC/Server Color; Post-3Q Results Takeaways

Nanya and Yageo have been top gainers recently with Yageo achieving new 52-week highs; We rate the stocks as Outperform and Structural Long...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2024 High Conviction for Upside >15% YoY

TSMC is expected to experience growth of ~15% YoY in 2024F. TSMC's N3 is expected to dominate the market in 2024F, with applications in CPU, GPU,...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 24th): TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlight foreign holding changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, Div+, Top50, ASX, FXI, Xiaomi, Tata Tech

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us?

What Oct US SEMI Equipment and Sep SIA/WSTS Global Sales Tell Us? Telling us early signs of semi equipment and global semi sales recovery and we...

Andrew Lu

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