Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the close on 1 March.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$7.74bn (US$988m). There is nearly 14x ADV to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> does not appear to be very high, while positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> is very high with a couple of deletions coming up.</li>
</ul>


As expected, Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) will replace GDS Holdings (9698 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 1 March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$7.74bn (US$988m). There is nearly 14x ADV to buy in Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK). 
Positioning in Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) does not appear to be very high, while positioning in GDS Holdings (9698 HK) is very high with a couple of deletions coming up.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>The index changes for HSTECH index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look at the expected index changes and our latest flow expectations.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The index changes for HSTECH index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. 
In this insight, we take a final look at the expected index changes and our latest flow expectations.


Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Flow Expectations: US$415mn One-Way if the Low-Conviction Change Takes Place

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.0bn in the shortened pre-holiday week.</li>
<li>Remarkable this past week, again, was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well.</li>
</ul>


A bad week for HK and Chinese shares. National Team buying seems lighter into the waning days of the Year of the Rabbit.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.0bn in the shortened pre-holiday week.
Remarkable this past week, again, was the tendency to net sell names which were down hard, and net buy names which have been performing well.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Feb 9th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were HSBC (5 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), AIA (1299 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Feb 9th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were HSBC (5 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), AIA (1299 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Feb 9th): Hsbc, Wuxi Biologics, Aia

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Meituan continue under pressure in the medium term due to the intensified competition with Douyin, and Meituan’s low price defending strategy in both food delivery and IHT businesses.</li>
<li>Our non-IFRS net profit is roughly in-line with consensus in 4Q23 but 20%/25% lower than consensus in 2024/25.</li>
<li>We downgrade the stock to SELL rating and cut TP to HK$57/share.</li>
</ul>


We expect Meituan continue under pressure in the medium term due to the intensified competition with Douyin, and Meituan’s low price defending strategy in both food delivery and IHT businesses.
Our non-IFRS net profit is roughly in-line with consensus in 4Q23 but 20%/25% lower than consensus in 2024/25.
We downgrade the stock to SELL rating and cut TP to HK$57/share.


[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$57) Rating Change]: No Quick Skip to the Near-Term Pressures

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn

Tongcheng Travel replaces GDS Holdings in the HSTECH at the close on 1 March. GDS is also a delete from a global index on 29 Feb, Positioning in...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Flow Expectations: US$415mn One-Way if the Low-Conviction Change Takes Place

I see US$415mn one-way index flows assuming Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) gets added and GDS Holdings (9698 HK) gets deleted. However, I see these as...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL

SOUTHBOUND saw net buying on this shortened week pre-CNY as stocks rebounded from the previous week's dramatic selloff. High Div SOEs were bought...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Feb 9th): Hsbc, Wuxi Biologics, Aia

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were HSBC (5 HK), Wuxi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn

Tongcheng Travel replaces GDS Holdings in the HSTECH at the close on 1 March. GDS is also a delete from a global index on 29 Feb, Positioning in...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity HSTECH Mar 24 Flow Expectations: US$415mn One-Way if the Low-Conviction Change Takes Place

I see US$415mn one-way index flows assuming Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) gets added and GDS Holdings (9698 HK) gets deleted. However, I see these as...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Feb 2024); Net Tech Selling STILL, Net SOE Buying, STILL

SOUTHBOUND saw net buying on this shortened week pre-CNY as stocks rebounded from the previous week's dramatic selloff. High Div SOEs were bought...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Feb 9th): Hsbc, Wuxi Biologics, Aia

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were HSBC (5 HK), Wuxi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$57) Rating Change]: No Quick Skip to the Near-Term Pressures

​Meituan faces increased competition and challenges in the medium term with Douyin, and Meituan’s low price defending strategy in both food...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Meituan faces increased competition and challenges in the medium term with Douyin, and Meituan’s low price defending strategy in both food...