Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> has entered into a share repurchase agreement with a wholly-owned entity of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> to repurchase (and cancel) 40.37mn shares for US$169.8mn.</li>
<li>Melco's effective holding will decline to 51.7% from 53.1% currently. This is the second parent/sub repurchase agreement in the last 7 months. </li>
<li>MLCO's previously announced US$500mn share repurchase program remains unaffected by this privately negotiated transaction, with US$412mn still available for future repurchases under the program.</li>
</ul>



Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) has entered into a share repurchase agreement with a wholly-owned entity of Melco International Development (200 HK) to repurchase (and cancel) 40.37mn shares for US$169.8mn.
Melco's effective holding will decline to 51.7% from 53.1% currently. This is the second parent/sub repurchase agreement in the last 7 months. 
MLCO's previously announced US$500mn share repurchase program remains unaffected by this privately negotiated transaction, with US$412mn still available for future repurchases under the program.


Melco (200 HK) Takes More Money Off The Table

<ul>
<li>Given the likelihood of more buybacks and pressure on capital allocation and structuring of the renewable energy business, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy (5021 JP)</a> is more of a buy than a sell.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> is a tricky beast to analyze. A key issue for investors is valuing Olam, ex- Olam Agri, ex- OFI.</li>
<li>Unloved as it is, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP)</a> is still cheap. </li>
</ul>


Given the likelihood of more buybacks and pressure on capital allocation and structuring of the renewable energy business, Cosmo Energy (5021 JP) is more of a buy than a sell.

Olam Group (OLG SP) is a tricky beast to analyze. A key issue for investors is valuing Olam, ex- Olam Agri, ex- OFI.
Unloved as it is, Yamada Denki (9831 JP) is still cheap. 


Last Week In SPACE: Cosmo, Olam, Yamada Denki, Jardine Cycle/Astra, Tianneng Power/Battery, Fujitsu

<ul>
<li>After Macau’s government renewed the concession periods for the city’s six incumbent gambling concessionaires for another 10 years, the key players are up 86% on average</li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> have gained a little over 100%. </li>
<li>Melco's NAV discount is back out to 36%. The simple ratio - Melco/MCLO - is around the lowest level since Melco began consolidating MCLO in early 2017.</li>
</ul>


After Macau’s government renewed the concession periods for the city’s six incumbent gambling concessionaires for another 10 years, the key players are up 86% on average
Both Melco International Development (200 HK) and Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) have gained a little over 100%. 
Melco's NAV discount is back out to 36%. The simple ratio - Melco/MCLO - is around the lowest level since Melco began consolidating MCLO in early 2017.


<ul>
<li>In principle, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> still wants to be greenmailed to get Murakami-san out. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>i is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective. And the MSCI inclusion event has now passed.</li>
<li>If you think this is a "risk", then you want to be long when the discount is wide and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> is monetising assets in some way. </li>
</ul>


In principle, Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) still wants to be greenmailed to get Murakami-san out. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)i is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective. And the MSCI inclusion event has now passed.
If you think this is a "risk", then you want to be long when the discount is wide and Softbank Group (9984 JP) is monetising assets in some way. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: JAFCO, Jardine Cycle, Softbank, Star Health

<ul>
<li>On the 26 November, Macau’s government renewed the concession periods of the city’s six incumbent gambling concessionaires for another 10 years.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3141:1" rel="noopener">Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3141:1" rel="noopener"></a>, a last-minute interloper, failed in its bid to secure a license. It scored lowest under the government's bidding review. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China (2282 HK)</a> topped the scoresheets. </li>
<li>As with all incumbents, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International (200 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> eked out strong gains following the renewal. Melco's current discount to NAV is currently 20%.</li>
</ul>


On the 26 November, Macau’s government renewed the concession periods of the city’s six incumbent gambling concessionaires for another 10 years.

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), a last-minute interloper, failed in its bid to secure a license. It scored lowest under the government's bidding review. MGM China (2282 HK) topped the scoresheets. 
As with all incumbents, Melco International (200 HK) and Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) eked out strong gains following the renewal. Melco's current discount to NAV is currently 20%.


Where Does Melco's Discount To NAV Go From Here?

Hong Kong

Melco International Development is an investment holding company primarily engaged in the leisure and entertainment sector. It develops, owns, and operates an international network of integrated casino gaming and entertainment resorts, offering gaming, luxury accommodation, dining, entertainment, and retail. The company was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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Melco International Development (200 HK)

Melco (200 HK) Takes More Money Off The Table

Since Melco's first repurchase agreement last August, its implied stub has widened from negative HK$1.22 to negative HK$5.42, despite the stub...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In SPACE: Cosmo, Olam, Yamada Denki, Jardine Cycle/Astra, Tianneng Power/Battery, Fujitsu

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Melco Trading "Cheap" As Macau Opens Up

Melco's NAV discount is back out to 36%. The simple ratio - Melco/MCLO - is around the lowest level since Melco began consolidating MCLO in early...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: JAFCO, Jardine Cycle, Softbank, Star Health

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Where Does Melco's Discount To NAV Go From Here?

Melco has a tendency to overshoot to the upside, therefore I'd be inclined to go Long Melco here and Short MCLO here as more positive news unfolds....

David Blennerhassett

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