New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Whilst NZAS will have to pay more for its electricity it is compensated by strong aluminium prices</li><li>MEL is in the box seat to supply less, with CEN, MCY and MNW to supply more</li><li>Big earnings uplift for MEL from CY2025, CEN and MNW an earnings hit, MCY a negative value impact</li></ul>

Whilst NZAS will have to pay more for its electricity it is compensated by strong aluminium pricesMEL is in the box seat to supply less, with CEN, MCY and MNW to supply moreBig earnings uplift for MEL from CY2025, CEN and MNW an earnings hit, MCY a negative value impact

Electricity Sector: NZAS Set to Stay, But Will Have to Pay

<ul><li>October 2022 was a repeat of recent months, with continued strong North Island hydro generation, low wholesale electricity spot prices, and rising interest rates continuing to squeeze sector valuations</li><li>Wholesale market conditions again favour North Island generators</li><li>Wholesale market conditions again favour North Island generators</li></ul>

October 2022 was a repeat of recent months, with continued strong North Island hydro generation, low wholesale electricity spot prices, and rising interest rates continuing to squeeze sector valuationsWholesale market conditions again favour North Island generatorsWholesale market conditions again favour North Island generators

Power Points: Wind Blows, Hydro Flows — November 2022

<ul><li>First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 prices</li><li>Cold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plant</li><li>If the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive</li></ul>

First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 pricesCold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plantIf the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

<ul><li>Electricity share prices have not responded to lift in interest rates: The 10-year swap rate is back above 4.0%, ending August at 4.1% and is currently 4.3%</li><li>August 2022 rounded off a wet winter, bigger development pipelines revealed</li><li>New GNE market security option (MSO) unlikely to excite the market, but may lift peak wholesale electricity prices</li></ul>

Electricity share prices have not responded to lift in interest rates: The 10-year swap rate is back above 4.0%, ending August at 4.1% and is currently 4.3%August 2022 rounded off a wet winter, bigger development pipelines revealedNew GNE market security option (MSO) unlikely to excite the market, but may lift peak wholesale electricity prices

Power Points: Lakes and Valuations Full— September 2022

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Rising capital and operating costs was the main theme from Meridian Energy's (MEL) FY22 result, and we have reduced our target price -10cps (-2.2%) to NZ$4.45</li><li>No issues with the FY22 result or current hydro storage, a few issues with the cost outlook </li><li>Expect dividend growth but likely to be subdued if MEL meets its growth aspirations</li></ul>

Rising capital and operating costs was the main theme from Meridian Energy's (MEL) FY22 result, and we have reduced our target price -10cps (-2.2%) to NZ$4.45No issues with the FY22 result or current hydro storage, a few issues with the cost outlook Expect dividend growth but likely to be subdued if MEL meets its growth aspirations

Meridian Energy: Costs, Costs and More Costs — FY22 Result

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

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Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Electricity Sector: NZAS Set to Stay, But Will Have to Pay

NZAS is set to remain open as the focus on decarbonisation means the economics of hydro-backed aluminium smelters have never looked better; We have...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Wind Blows, Hydro Flows — November 2022

October 2022 was a repeat of recent months, with continued strong North Island hydro generation, low wholesale electricity spot prices, and rising...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

The cold snap in early September 2022 resulted in wild wholesale electricity price fluctuations, highlighting the market would benefit from more...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Lakes and Valuations Full— September 2022

The big wet hit August 2022, resulting in hydro storage hitting an all time high (170% of average) for this time of year, which in turn suppressed...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy: Costs, Costs and More Costs — FY22 Result

Rising capital and operating costs was the main theme from Meridian Energy's (MEL) FY22 result, and we have reduced our target price -10cps (-2.2%)...

Forsyth Barr

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