New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).</li><li>January 2026 is another pointer to the future. High levels of must-run generation will suppress wholesale electricity prices, particularly during low demand months when it is sunny, such as January and December.</li><li>For further analysis of what we expect from the 1H26 reporting season, refer to our report Swimming with the Current, published 31 January 2026.</li></ul>

January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).January 2026 is another pointer to the future. High levels of must-run generation will suppress wholesale electricity prices, particularly during low demand months when it is sunny, such as January and December.For further analysis of what we expect from the 1H26 reporting season, refer to our report Swimming with the Current, published 31 January 2026.

Power Points The Future Is Now—February 2026

<ul><li>Contact Energy’s (CEN) investor day set a series of FY31 targets, with asset development the core driver of earnings growth under its Contact31+ strategy.</li><li>While the development programme is large, the use of joint ventures to develop its wind and solar projects reduces funding requirements, minimising the need for a capital raise.</li><li>Overall, the positives outweighed the negatives, and we lift our target price +2.1% (+23cps) to NZ$11.00 and retain our OUTPERFORM rating.</li></ul>

Contact Energy’s (CEN) investor day set a series of FY31 targets, with asset development the core driver of earnings growth under its Contact31+ strategy.While the development programme is large, the use of joint ventures to develop its wind and solar projects reduces funding requirements, minimising the need for a capital raise.Overall, the positives outweighed the negatives, and we lift our target price +2.1% (+23cps) to NZ$11.00 and retain our OUTPERFORM rating.

Contact Energy Flexing The Development Pipeline—2025 IR Day

<ul><li>October 2025 broke several records—the highest geothermal, wind, and solar generation for October; a renewable generation record; and, at month end, the snowpack was at its highest ever for this time of year.</li><li>The system is long energy, with hydro storage ~+50% above average, so we expect low wholesale electricity prices to persist for a while, although the NIWA climate survey indicates more settled weather ahead, and an 80% chance of La Niña conditions.</li><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.</li></ul>

October 2025 broke several records—the highest geothermal, wind, and solar generation for October; a renewable generation record; and, at month end, the snowpack was at its highest ever for this time of year.The system is long energy, with hydro storage ~+50% above average, so we expect low wholesale electricity prices to persist for a while, although the NIWA climate survey indicates more settled weather ahead, and an 80% chance of La Niña conditions.Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.

Power Points Renewables Rule The Roost—November 2025

<ul><li>We upgrade Meridian Energy (MEL) to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>In addition, in a low-interest-rate environment, electricity stocks should perform well.</li><li>While the FY25 result was terrible (for a low-risk electricity stock), a repeat is highly unlikely—particularly if MEL is successful in obtaining access to contingent hydro storage that currently can only be accessed in extreme situations.</li></ul>

We upgrade Meridian Energy (MEL) to OUTPERFORM.In addition, in a low-interest-rate environment, electricity stocks should perform well.While the FY25 result was terrible (for a low-risk electricity stock), a repeat is highly unlikely—particularly if MEL is successful in obtaining access to contingent hydro storage that currently can only be accessed in extreme situations.

Meridian Energy Ready For The Next Dry Spell—FY25 Result

<ul><li>The most notable announcement in the past month was the deal between the four large generator/retailers to support the retention of the third Rankine Unit through to at least 2036.</li><li>We have upgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>July 2025 was also notable for very high peak demand periods that largely went unrecognised, and wholesale electricity prices ~-70% lower than July 2024.</li></ul>

The most notable announcement in the past month was the deal between the four large generator/retailers to support the retention of the third Rankine Unit through to at least 2036.We have upgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to OUTPERFORM.July 2025 was also notable for very high peak demand periods that largely went unrecognised, and wholesale electricity prices ~-70% lower than July 2024.

Power Points Delivering Sector Security—August 2025

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

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Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Power Points The Future Is Now—February 2026

January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy Flexing The Development Pipeline—2025 IR Day

Contact Energy’s (CEN) investor day set a series of FY31 targets, with asset development the core driver of earnings growth under its Contact31+...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Renewables Rule The Roost—November 2025

Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy Ready For The Next Dry Spell—FY25 Result

We upgrade Meridian Energy (MEL) to OUTPERFORM.In addition, in a low-interest-rate environment, electricity stocks should perform well.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Delivering Sector Security—August 2025

The most notable announcement in the past month was the deal between the four large generator/retailers to support the retention of the third...

Forsyth Barr

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