New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Contact Energy (CEN) has finished FY25 well, and we calculate EBITDAF will be consistent with CEN’s NZ$790m guidance.</li>
<li>Better hydro inflows and increased geothermal generation reduced the need to run thermal generation, lowering CEN’s 4Q25 cost of generation.</li>
<li>CEN’s key challenge for FY26 is integrating Manawa Energy (MNW) into the business and extracting the synergy benefits—the transaction was completed on 11 July 2025.</li>
</ul>


Contact Energy (CEN) has finished FY25 well, and we calculate EBITDAF will be consistent with CEN’s NZ$790m guidance.
Better hydro inflows and increased geothermal generation reduced the need to run thermal generation, lowering CEN’s 4Q25 cost of generation.
CEN’s key challenge for FY26 is integrating Manawa Energy (MNW) into the business and extracting the synergy benefits—the transaction was completed on 11 July 2025.


Contact Energy Good Finish to FY25, Work Ahead for FY26

<ul><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) closed out a difficult FY25 with a solid June 2025 performance but confirmed FY25 is a year to put behind it.</li><li>Positives during the year include MEL’s strong retail performance, with +76k connections added; opex coming in below the low end of guidance; and solid progress on its development pipeline—albeit two projects expected to reach financial close by year end have not.</li><li>While we forecast a significant recovery in FY26 earnings, this is priced in and we retain our NEUTRAL rating.</li></ul>

Meridian Energy (MEL) closed out a difficult FY25 with a solid June 2025 performance but confirmed FY25 is a year to put behind it.Positives during the year include MEL’s strong retail performance, with +76k connections added; opex coming in below the low end of guidance; and solid progress on its development pipeline—albeit two projects expected to reach financial close by year end have not.While we forecast a significant recovery in FY26 earnings, this is priced in and we retain our NEUTRAL rating.

Meridian Energy The Only Way Is Up—June 2025 Op Stats

<ul><li>FY25 is expected to be Meridian Energy's worst operating result in over a decade, driven by extreme hydro conditions and high-cost replacement generation.</li><li>Despite a challenging FY25, operational improvements and the Flick Electric acquisition are expected to boost earnings for FY26 and beyond.</li><li>The NEUTRAL rating is maintained due to premium trading against peers and sector uncertainties from regulatory and political reviews.</li></ul>

FY25 is expected to be Meridian Energy's worst operating result in over a decade, driven by extreme hydro conditions and high-cost replacement generation.Despite a challenging FY25, operational improvements and the Flick Electric acquisition are expected to boost earnings for FY26 and beyond.The NEUTRAL rating is maintained due to premium trading against peers and sector uncertainties from regulatory and political reviews.

Meridian Energy - Closing Out Its Annus Horribilis

<ul><li>Earnings are tracking lower, leading to a material downward earnings revision and a short-term dividend reduction.</li><li>Historically low hydro inflows and weak wind volumes are the main drivers of the earnings downgrade.</li><li>MEL has been successful in lifting its pricing and progressing its development pipeline, supporting improved long-term earnings.</li></ul>

Earnings are tracking lower, leading to a material downward earnings revision and a short-term dividend reduction.Historically low hydro inflows and weak wind volumes are the main drivers of the earnings downgrade.MEL has been successful in lifting its pricing and progressing its development pipeline, supporting improved long-term earnings.

Meridian Energy - March 2025 Op Stats—Parched

<ul><li>March 2025 saw dry conditions with declining hydro levels and rising electricity prices, but short-dated futures prices fell, indicating effective dry year mitigations.</li><li>Gas production volumes are decreasing, posing challenges for winter 2026, although the sector has increased reliance on coal and added new generation capacity.</li><li>Electricity stocks offer good value and attractive yields, with MCY and MEL rated OUTPERFORM, while CEN, GNE, and MNW are rated NEUTRAL.</li></ul>

March 2025 saw dry conditions with declining hydro levels and rising electricity prices, but short-dated futures prices fell, indicating effective dry year mitigations.Gas production volumes are decreasing, posing challenges for winter 2026, although the sector has increased reliance on coal and added new generation capacity.Electricity stocks offer good value and attractive yields, with MCY and MEL rated OUTPERFORM, while CEN, GNE, and MNW are rated NEUTRAL.

Power Points Keep Calm and Power On—April 2025

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

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Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Contact Energy Good Finish to FY25, Work Ahead for FY26

CEN’s key challenge for FY26 is integrating Manawa Energy (MNW) into the business and extracting the synergy benefits—the transaction was completed...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy The Only Way Is Up—June 2025 Op Stats

Meridian Energy (MEL) closed out a difficult FY25 with a solid June 2025 performance but confirmed FY25 is a year to put behind it.

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy - Closing Out Its Annus Horribilis

FY25 is expected to be Meridian Energy's worst operating result in over a decade, driven by extreme hydro conditions and high-cost replacement...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy - March 2025 Op Stats—Parched

MEL has been successful in lifting its pricing and progressing its development pipeline, supporting improved long-term earnings.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Keep Calm and Power On—April 2025

March 2025 saw dry conditions with declining hydro levels and rising electricity prices, but short-dated futures prices fell, indicating effective...

Forsyth Barr

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