Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada (9831 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/edion-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14358:1" rel="noopener">Edion Corp (2730 JP)</a>'s MOU to negotiate to form a Holdco,  also means that capital actions to improve shareholder returns are probably dead for a year.</li>
<li>IFM critiques the IE's fair value assessment of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> and extends the offer period; amid minimal tendering. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a>/KLINE upped their buyback plan from ¥50bn to ¥130bn and started with a big ToSTNeT-3.  Buy on weakness. Longer-term, be long and stay long.</li>
</ul>



Yamada (9831 JP) and Edion Corp (2730 JP)'s MOU to negotiate to form a Holdco,  also means that capital actions to improve shareholder returns are probably dead for a year.
IFM critiques the IE's fair value assessment of Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) and extends the offer period; amid minimal tendering. 

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)/KLINE upped their buyback plan from ¥50bn to ¥130bn and started with a big ToSTNeT-3.  Buy on weakness. Longer-term, be long and stay long.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Yamada/Edion, Atlas Arteria, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha/KLINE, MGM China

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 1 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-resorts-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16227:1" rel="noopener">MGM Resorts International (MGM US)</a> confirmed that it had received an offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iac-inc-people-incorporated" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:754:1" rel="noopener">People Incorporated (IAC) (IAC US)</a> to acquire it for US$48.30 per share. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China (2282 HK)</a> rose 7% due to the near-term possibility that the acquisition could trigger a mandatory general offer (downstream offer) and the long-term possibility of a privatisation offer.   </li>
<li>The triggering of an MGO based on the chain principle is not guaranteed, and the potential offer would be well below the last close. Nevertheless, MGM China’s valuation remains undemanding.</li>
</ul>


On 1 June, MGM Resorts International (MGM US) confirmed that it had received an offer from People Incorporated (IAC) (IAC US) to acquire it for US$48.30 per share. 

MGM China (2282 HK) rose 7% due to the near-term possibility that the acquisition could trigger a mandatory general offer (downstream offer) and the long-term possibility of a privatisation offer.   
The triggering of an MGO based on the chain principle is not guaranteed, and the potential offer would be well below the last close. Nevertheless, MGM China’s valuation remains undemanding.


MGM China (2282 HK): An MGO Based on the Chain Principle Is Not a Sure Thing

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

<ul><li>Healthcare’s relative performance to the S&amp;P 500 is at a historic low.</li><li>According to Bank of America, the sector’s relative forward P/E now sits at roughly 0.8x the S&amp;P 500, down from peaks of 1.4x in the late 1990s.</li><li>To me, it looks like an excellent fishing pond.</li></ul>

Healthcare’s relative performance to the S&amp;P 500 is at a historic low.According to Bank of America, the sector’s relative forward P/E now sits at roughly 0.8x the S&amp;P 500, down from peaks of 1.4x in the late 1990s.To me, it looks like an excellent fishing pond.

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our checks indicate that during the first 5 days in May, Macau GGR reached ~1 billion MOP, up by HDD (high-double-digits) year-over-year. This was driven by the extra one day for the labor-day holiday this year, strong mass visitations from mainland and very high VIP rolling.  We estimate that the average rolling amount in VIP rooms reached ~5.5 billion -6.0 billion MOP per day per table, up ~15% YoY (same period in 2018).  The extra day provided in the holiday is to stimulate consumer spending by the government, a similar measure as the income tax cut effective on Oct 1st, 2018.In April, Macau GGR was down 8.3% YoY, dragged down by ~25% decline in VIP GGR.  The VIP luck factor was ~3% last minute, similar to same period in 2018.  Rolling demand was negatively impacted by Beijing’s tightened implementation of capital outflow controls, and crackdown of underground banking and related crimes.

Our checks indicate that during the first 5 days in May, Macau GGR reached ~1 billion MOP, up by HDD (high-double-digits) year-over-year. This was driven by the extra one day for the labor-day holiday this year, strong mass visitations from mainland and very high VIP rolling.  We estimate that the average rolling amount in VIP rooms reached ~5.5 billion -6.0 billion MOP per day per table, up ~15% YoY (same period in 2018).  The extra day provided in the holiday is to stimulate consumer spending by the government, a similar measure as the income tax cut effective on Oct 1st, 2018.In April, Macau GGR was down 8.3% YoY, dragged down by ~25% decline in VIP GGR.  The VIP luck factor was ~3% last minute, similar to same period in 2018.  Rolling demand was negatively impacted by Beijing’s tightened implementation of capital outflow controls, and crackdown of underground banking and related crimes. 

Macau Gaming: Strong Labor Day Holiday GGR

United States

MGM Resorts International operates gaming, hospitality and entertainment resorts.  The Company owns properties in Nevada, Mississippi and Michigan in the United States; and owns interests in properties in Nevada and Illinois in the United States, and Macau. MGM Resorts also offers hospitality management services for casino and non-casino properties around the world.

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MGM Resorts International (MGM US)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Yamada/Edion, Atlas Arteria, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha/KLINE, MGM China

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

While the S&P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to...

Vermilion Research

MGM China (2282 HK): An MGO Based on the Chain Principle Is Not a Sure Thing

The triggering of an MGO based on the chain principle is not guaranteed, and the potential offer would be well below the last close. Nevertheless,...

Arun George

Weekly Update (IAC/MGM, OCTV, HOH.V)

Healthcare’s relative performance to the S&P 500 is at a historic low. According to Bank of America, the sector’s relative forward P/E now sits at...

Richard Howe

Macau Gaming: Strong Labor Day Holiday GGR

Our checks indicate that during the first 5 days in May, Macau GGR reached ~1 billion MOP, up by HDD (high-double-digits) year-over-year. This was...

JL Warren Capital

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