Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In January 2014, I bought my first Fitbit device. At the time, it was a company almost unheard of except by a few. The Fitbit app on the phone was cool too. In remarkable fashion, 15 months later, almost everyone I knew had a&nbsp;Fitbit device. In June 2015, the company went public and became&nbsp;the talk of the town. Aided by the trend of&nbsp;quantifying health and health consciousness, many manufacturers threw their hats in the fitness &lsquo;wearables&rsquo; ring (including giants like Apple and Motorola). The euphoria around Fitbit's IPO was understandable and the numbers for Q2&nbsp;2015 dazzled. Looking forward, will Fitbit continue to impress given that the wearables market is evolving and competitors are crowding the market?&nbsp;

In January 2014, I bought my first Fitbit device. At the time, it was a company almost unheard of except by a few. The Fitbit app on the phone was cool too. In remarkable fashion, 15 months later, almost everyone I knew had a&nbsp;Fitbit device. In June 2015, the company went public and became&nbsp;the talk of the town. Aided by the trend of&nbsp;quantifying health and health consciousness, many manufacturers threw their hats in the fitness &lsquo;wearables&rsquo; ring (including giants like Apple and Motorola). The euphoria around Fitbit's IPO was understandable and the numbers for Q2&nbsp;2015 dazzled. Looking forward, will Fitbit continue to impress given that the wearables market is evolving and competitors are crowding the market?&nbsp;

The Greece government is running out of time and money. 320 billion euros is the size of their&nbsp;debt mountain. Money enough to carry out 15 Apollo moon landings!It owes 6.74 B euros in June (IMF and short-term bills), 5.95 B euros in July (IMF, ECB and short-term bills) and 4.38 B euros in August (IMF, ECB and short-term bills).They may default on their loans and reach the much dreaded&nbsp;<a href="http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=Grexit" target="_blank">Grexit</a>&nbsp;from Euro. Unless they find saviours and implement serious reforms&nbsp;quickly, the&nbsp;Greeks&nbsp;will come back to drachma, face inflation, unemployment and an abysmal fall in their GDP.While most industries are swimming against the tide to survive, the tourism industry is a proud exception. Greece is witnessing a summer flooded&nbsp;with tourists. Flights&nbsp;are full, beaches are bustling and hotels are&nbsp;full capacity. Will the inevitable debt storm&nbsp;end the vacation for the tourism industry? Let us deep dive.

The Greece government is running out of time and money. 320 billion euros is the size of their&nbsp;debt mountain. Money enough to carry out 15 Apollo moon landings!It owes 6.74 B euros in June (IMF and short-term bills), 5.95 B euros in July (IMF, ECB and short-term bills) and 4.38 B euros in August (IMF, ECB and short-term bills).They may default on their loans and reach the much dreaded&nbsp;Grexit&nbsp;from Euro. Unless they find saviours and implement serious reforms&nbsp;quickly, the&nbsp;Greeks&nbsp;will come back to drachma, face inflation, unemployment and an abysmal fall in their GDP.While most industries are swimming against the tide to survive, the tourism industry is a proud exception. Greece is witnessing a summer flooded&nbsp;with tourists. Flights&nbsp;are full, beaches are bustling and hotels are&nbsp;full capacity. Will the inevitable debt storm&nbsp;end the vacation for the tourism industry? Let us deep dive.

Greece's Travel & Tourism industry shines amidst crisis

The shared economy companies&nbsp;are threatened by laws and regulation. But then, which <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation" target="_blank">disruptive</a> businesses are not? Uber and Airbnb are likely to be darlings of Wall Street if they decide to go public. But will they live up to the hype? Possibly in the long run, some things could go downhill. But with access to capital, low debts and high reach, these companies are likely to cover their tracks and stay on top in the near future. But skeptics would compare these possible high profile IPOs to <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/joanlappin/2013/11/11/two-years-after-its-busted-ipo-groupon-still-cant-turn-a-profit/" target="_blank">Groupon</a> and <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102020026" target="_blank">Alibaba</a> which saw decline in shares after going public. Time will tell.

The shared economy companies&nbsp;are threatened by laws and regulation. But then, which disruptive businesses are not? Uber and Airbnb are likely to be darlings of Wall Street if they decide to go public. But will they live up to the hype? Possibly in the long run, some things could go downhill. But with access to capital, low debts and high reach, these companies are likely to cover their tracks and stay on top in the near future. But skeptics would compare these possible high profile IPOs to Groupon and Alibaba which saw decline in shares after going public. Time will tell.

Will the 'shared economy' pioneers be the next Twitter or Facebook?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gigadevice-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. </li>
<li>The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microchip-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8788:1" rel="noopener">Microchip Technology (MCHP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18804:1" rel="noopener">Texas Instruments (TXN US)</a>. </li>
<li>Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.</li>
</ul>



GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. 
The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely Microchip Technology (MCHP US) and Texas Instruments (TXN US). 
Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.


GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Microchip Technology's first fiscal quarter for 2026 reported robust performance with a noteworthy 10.8% sequential sales growth, driven by double-digit increases in their microcontroller and analog businesses across all geographies.</li><li>This indicates a strong quarter despite challenging conditions and reflects the concerted efforts of their 18,000 employees who had been working with pay cuts.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Microchip Technology's first fiscal quarter for 2026 reported robust performance with a noteworthy 10.8% sequential sales growth, driven by double-digit increases in their microcontroller and analog businesses across all geographies.This indicates a strong quarter despite challenging conditions and reflects the concerted efforts of their 18,000 employees who had been working with pay cuts.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Microchip Technology Prioritizes Backlog Management: Can Long-Term Orders Unlock Predictable Growth?

United States

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

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Microchip Technology (MCHP US)

Fitbit, a good 'fit' for your portfolio?

In January 2014, I bought my first Fitbit device. At the time, it was a company almost unheard of except by a few. The Fitbit app on the phone was...

Ishita Jain

Greece's Travel & Tourism industry shines amidst crisis

The Greece government is running out of time and money. 320 billion euros is the size of their debt mountain. Money enough to carry out 15 Apollo...

Ishita Jain

Will the 'shared economy' pioneers be the next Twitter or Facebook?

The shared economy companies are threatened by laws and regulation. But then, which disruptive businesses are not? Uber and Airbnb are likely to be...

Ishita Jain

GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Microchip Technology Prioritizes Backlog Management: Can Long-Term Orders Unlock Predictable Growth?

Microchip Technology's first fiscal quarter for 2026 reported robust performance with a noteworthy 10.8% sequential sales growth, driven by...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fitbit, a good 'fit' for your portfolio?

In January 2014, I bought my first Fitbit device. At the time, it was a company almost unheard of except by a few. The Fitbit app on the phone was...

Ishita Jain

Greece's Travel & Tourism industry shines amidst crisis

The Greece government is running out of time and money. 320 billion euros is the size of their debt mountain. Money enough to carry out 15 Apollo...

Ishita Jain

Will the 'shared economy' pioneers be the next Twitter or Facebook?

The shared economy companies are threatened by laws and regulation. But then, which disruptive businesses are not? Uber and Airbnb are likely to be...

Ishita Jain

GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

​GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Microchip Technology Prioritizes Backlog Management: Can Long-Term Orders Unlock Predictable Growth?

Microchip Technology's first fiscal quarter for 2026 reported robust performance with a noteworthy 10.8% sequential sales growth, driven by...

Baptista Research

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...