Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma. </li>
<li>In this cut, we revisit memory stocks' stellar year, unpack results from <em>the best pure-play gaming franchise</em>, and spotlight airline stocks poised for lift-off.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma. 
In this cut, we revisit memory stocks' stellar year, unpack results from the best pure-play gaming franchise, and spotlight airline stocks poised for lift-off.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Korea's Memory Mania, Nintendo's Next Play & Airline Takeoffs

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>SK Hynix reported Q325 revenues of ₩34.45 trillion, up +10% QoQ and up 39% YoY representing an all time quarterly revenue record</li>
<li>Now given the customers demand and the company’s capacity for next year not only HBM but DRAM and NAND capacity has essentially been sold out.</li>
<li>DRAM margin could rise closer to HBM but the company does not plan to immediately adjust the capacity mix based on what can be a short-lived change in profitability</li>
</ul>


SK Hynix reported Q325 revenues of ₩34.45 trillion, up +10% QoQ and up 39% YoY representing an all time quarterly revenue record
Now given the customers demand and the company’s capacity for next year not only HBM but DRAM and NAND capacity has essentially been sold out.
DRAM margin could rise closer to HBM but the company does not plan to immediately adjust the capacity mix based on what can be a short-lived change in profitability


SK Hynix Q325. HBM, DRAM, NAND All Sold Out Through 2026

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO said he has a $500bn AI order book. If over the next 7 quarters, it means growth will remain at ~60% YoY till Apr-27. No slowdown. That’s possible.</li>
<li>If it’s over the next 5 quarters (which is what he actually said), it’s enormous growth reaching ~200% YoY in 2H26. I doubt that the supply chain can do that.</li>
<li>Consensus is the lowest with most room for upside: Memory stocks. Consensus too low by ~20%: Nvidia. Just a it too low: TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO said he has a $500bn AI order book. If over the next 7 quarters, it means growth will remain at ~60% YoY till Apr-27. No slowdown. That’s possible.
If it’s over the next 5 quarters (which is what he actually said), it’s enormous growth reaching ~200% YoY in 2H26. I doubt that the supply chain can do that.
Consensus is the lowest with most room for upside: Memory stocks. Consensus too low by ~20%: Nvidia. Just a it too low: TSMC.


Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With inference workloads scaling, NAND flash and HBM are now central to AI infrastructure, reshaping demand, pricing, and capex.</li>
<li>SSD demand is booked through 2026, HDD lead times stretch to 52 weeks, and persistent storage (commodity, you say?) has become mission-critical for inference data trails.</li>
<li>HBM to cross 43% of DRAM TAM, while packaging complexity and competition from Chinese players raise fresh and long-term questions on valuation and defensibility.</li>
</ul>


With inference workloads scaling, NAND flash and HBM are now central to AI infrastructure, reshaping demand, pricing, and capex.
SSD demand is booked through 2026, HDD lead times stretch to 52 weeks, and persistent storage (commodity, you say?) has become mission-critical for inference data trails.
HBM to cross 43% of DRAM TAM, while packaging complexity and competition from Chinese players raise fresh and long-term questions on valuation and defensibility.


From Commodity to Catalyst: Memory as the New Bottleneck

<ul>
<li>Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.</li>
<li>ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?</li>
<li>ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.</li>
</ul>


Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.
ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?
ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.


ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Curator's Cut: Korea's Memory Mania, Nintendo's Next Play & Airline Takeoffs

This Curator's Cut reviews the rally in memory stocks, the top gaming franchise's results, and two airline stocks that could be cleared for takeoff.

Pranav Rao

SK Hynix Q325. HBM, DRAM, NAND All Sold Out Through 2026

DRAM margin could rise closer to HBM but the company does not plan to immediately adjust the capacity mix based on what can be a short-lived change...

William Keating

Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

Nicolas Baratte

From Commodity to Catalyst: Memory as the New Bottleneck

AI infrastructure is increasingly reliant on NAND flash and HBM, reshaping demand and pricing, with SSD demand booked through 2026 and HDD lead...

Mint Finance

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

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Curator's Cut: Korea's Memory Mania, Nintendo's Next Play & Airline Takeoffs

This ​Curator's Cut reviews the rally in memory stocks, the top gaming franchise's results, and two airline stocks that could be cleared for takeoff.

Pranav Rao

SK Hynix Q325. HBM, DRAM, NAND All Sold Out Through 2026

DRAM margin could rise closer to HBM but the company does not plan to immediately adjust the capacity mix based on what can be a short-lived change...

William Keating

Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

​Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

Nicolas Baratte

From Commodity to Catalyst: Memory as the New Bottleneck

​AI infrastructure is increasingly reliant on NAND flash and HBM, reshaping demand and pricing, with SSD demand booked through 2026 and HDD lead...

Mint Finance

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

​ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

This Curator's Cut reviews the rally in memory stocks, the top gaming franchise's results, and two airline stocks that could be cleared for takeoff.

Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

AI infrastructure is increasingly reliant on NAND flash and HBM, reshaping demand and pricing, with SSD demand booked through 2026 and HDD lead...

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...