Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability, and said oh, inventory accounting has helped us out</li>
<li>Oracle had a huge announcement that majorly snubbed Intel.</li>
<li>There’s another rumored AI winner. Amkor was rumored (heavy emphasis, Digitimes can be untrustworthy) to be helping Nvidia with packaging.</li>
</ul>


Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability, and said oh, inventory accounting has helped us out
Oracle had a huge announcement that majorly snubbed Intel.
There’s another rumored AI winner. Amkor was rumored (heavy emphasis, Digitimes can be untrustworthy) to be helping Nvidia with packaging.


Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU Restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and V Icor

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>The extent to which Smartphone &amp; PC unit shipments will rebound in H2 is as yet unknown. </li>
<li>Most semi companies forecasted a muted H2 recovery. After earnings, we downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments.</li>
<li>Many semi stocks are priced for a H2 rebound that's proving notoriously elusive but there are still some bargains to be found</li>
</ul>


The extent to which Smartphone &amp; PC unit shipments will rebound in H2 is as yet unknown. 
Most semi companies forecasted a muted H2 recovery. After earnings, we downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments.
Many semi stocks are priced for a H2 rebound that's proving notoriously elusive but there are still some bargains to be found


Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After taking short positions against Palantir &amp; NVIDIA, Michael Burry has closed his hedge fund and taken to substack to continue his assault on the AI bubble</li>
<li>While he makes some valid points, these are mainly things everybody already knows and in the end he's missing the forest for the trees</li>
<li>There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive course corrections, all by themselves.</li>
</ul>


After taking short positions against Palantir &amp; NVIDIA, Michael Burry has closed his hedge fund and taken to substack to continue his assault on the AI bubble
While he makes some valid points, these are mainly things everybody already knows and in the end he's missing the forest for the trees
There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive course corrections, all by themselves.


NVIDIA. Burry's Claims Miss The Forest For The Trees. The Real Issues Are Structural, Not Legal

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kioxia Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reports that Bain Capital is selling 36.0 million <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> shares through a block trade. IFR reports that the offering is worth up to JPY330 billion (US$2.1 billion).</li>
<li>The offering is unsurprising given the shares are up around 7x since the IPO. The offering is easily digestible as it represents 2.7 days of the average ADV since listing.</li>
<li>Kioxia is anticipated to return to growth in 3Q, and the underlying margin is recovering from recent lows. However, Kioxia’s EV/EBITDA multiple is full compared to peers and historical ranges. </li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that Bain Capital is selling 36.0 million Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) shares through a block trade. IFR reports that the offering is worth up to JPY330 billion (US$2.1 billion).
The offering is unsurprising given the shares are up around 7x since the IPO. The offering is easily digestible as it represents 2.7 days of the average ADV since listing.
Kioxia is anticipated to return to growth in 3Q, and the underlying margin is recovering from recent lows. However, Kioxia’s EV/EBITDA multiple is full compared to peers and historical ranges. 


Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA’s AI Factory Buildout Signals Multi-Year Demand for Taiwan’s Supply Chain</li>
<li>TSMC’s Growth Outlook De-Risked by NVIDIA's Smooth Transition to GB300</li>
<li>NVIDIA's Networking Segment Surge Expands System-Level Product Integration Opportunity for Taiwan Ecosystem</li>
</ul>


NVIDIA’s AI Factory Buildout Signals Multi-Year Demand for Taiwan’s Supply Chain
TSMC’s Growth Outlook De-Risked by NVIDIA's Smooth Transition to GB300
NVIDIA's Networking Segment Surge Expands System-Level Product Integration Opportunity for Taiwan Ecosystem


NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Micron Technology (MU US)

Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU Restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and V Icor

Micron's earnings are boring. And a Vicor signal boost. Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!

The H2'23 recovery will likely be muted. Downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments. While most semis are...

William Keating

NVIDIA. Burry's Claims Miss The Forest For The Trees. The Real Issues Are Structural, Not Legal

There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive...

William Keating

Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown

The offering is unsurprising given the shares are up around 7x since the IPO and easily digestible as it represents 2.7 days of the average ADV...

Arun George

NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

NVIDIA's expansion and smooth transition to new products signal long-term demand for Taiwan's supply chain and growth opportunities for TSMC.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU Restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and V Icor

Micron's earnings are boring. And a Vicor signal boost. Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors H2 Rebound? Curb Your Enthusiasm!

The H2'23 recovery will likely be muted. Downgraded our FY'23 outlook for Foundry, PC, Smartphone and Silicon Wafer segments. While most semis are...

William Keating

NVIDIA. Burry's Claims Miss The Forest For The Trees. The Real Issues Are Structural, Not Legal

There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive...

William Keating

Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown

The offering is unsurprising given the shares are up around 7x since the IPO and easily digestible as it represents 2.7 days of the average ADV...

Arun George

NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers

​NVIDIA's expansion and smooth transition to new products signal long-term demand for Taiwan's supply chain and growth opportunities for TSMC.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA's expansion and smooth transition to new products signal long-term demand for Taiwan's supply chain and growth opportunities for TSMC.