HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Last week, centralized procurement results of orthopedic spinal consumables were released, with an average price reduction of 84%. We analyzed the impact on related companies. </li>
<li>If medical insurance reimbursement standards of Hunan Provincial are followed, there will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots for many hospitals, mainly to meet scientific research needs instead.</li>
<li>Under the appearance of the popularity of CGT CDMO, there are some hidden worries. Investors are recommended to be rational due to the overcapacity issue in the future.</li>
</ul>


Last week, centralized procurement results of orthopedic spinal consumables were released, with an average price reduction of 84%. We analyzed the impact on related companies. 
If medical insurance reimbursement standards of Hunan Provincial are followed, there will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots for many hospitals, mainly to meet scientific research needs instead.
Under the appearance of the popularity of CGT CDMO, there are some hidden worries. Investors are recommended to be rational due to the overcapacity issue in the future.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.30) - Orthopedics VBP, CGT CDMO, Surgical Robots, Bottom of HKEX

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Capital Markets

Jenscare Scientific / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jenscare-scientific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33525:1" rel="noopener">Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK)</a> is developing interventional products for the treatment of structural heart diseases. Its core product LuX-Valve is expected to become the first commercialized TTVR product in China.</li>
<li>With its comprehensive portfolio and early mover advantage, Jenscare is well-positioned to capitalize on large and underpenetrated China’s structural heart diseases treatment market worth of RMB20.3 billion in 2030.</li>
<li>Jenscare Scientific plans to raise $30 million (HKD234 million) in its third application for a Hong Kong IPO, with CICC and Citigroup being the joint sponsors.</li>
</ul>



Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) is developing interventional products for the treatment of structural heart diseases. Its core product LuX-Valve is expected to become the first commercialized TTVR product in China.
With its comprehensive portfolio and early mover advantage, Jenscare is well-positioned to capitalize on large and underpenetrated China’s structural heart diseases treatment market worth of RMB20.3 billion in 2030.
Jenscare Scientific plans to raise $30 million (HKD234 million) in its third application for a Hong Kong IPO, with CICC and Citigroup being the joint sponsors.


Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) Pre-IPO: Product Differentiation Is the Key Reason to Subscribe

<ul>
<li>The main bottleneck in this market in China is the severe shortage of doctors and limited qualified hospitals to carry out such surgery, leading to lower-than-expected market penetration/sales performance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jenscare-scientific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33525:1" rel="noopener">Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK)</a>’s products have to face fierce competition, without obvious advantage of development progress, or the progress has already lagged behind the competitors. </li>
<li>Overall, good valuation cannot be supported without promising commercialization outlook. We are not sure whether Jenscare can finally achieve the ideal return in the case of unfriendly external environment.</li>
</ul>


The main bottleneck in this market in China is the severe shortage of doctors and limited qualified hospitals to carry out such surgery, leading to lower-than-expected market penetration/sales performance.

Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK)’s products have to face fierce competition, without obvious advantage of development progress, or the progress has already lagged behind the competitors. 
Overall, good valuation cannot be supported without promising commercialization outlook. We are not sure whether Jenscare can finally achieve the ideal return in the case of unfriendly external environment.


Pre-IPO Jenscare Scientific - Difficult to Achieve Expected Commercialization Results

<ul>
<li>While AI has had a profound impact in image recognition,there has been little comparable progress in drug discovery, far from the current levels of investment and expectations in this sector.</li>
<li>The success of license-in model must be based on the appropriate valuation level. The ultimate parameter to measure a drug company based on license-in model is its cash flow status.</li>
<li>Pet medical equipment is not subject to the negative policy impact of centralized procurement. Together with high demand, it is expected to become the second growth curve of enterprises.</li>
</ul>


While AI has had a profound impact in image recognition,there has been little comparable progress in drug discovery, far from the current levels of investment and expectations in this sector.
The success of license-in model must be based on the appropriate valuation level. The ultimate parameter to measure a drug company based on license-in model is its cash flow status.
Pet medical equipment is not subject to the negative policy impact of centralized procurement. Together with high demand, it is expected to become the second growth curve of enterprises.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.12)-AI Drug Discovery, License-In Mode Valuation, Pet Medical Equipment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to the centralized procurement in PRC market and decreasing volume of operations in overseas markets during pandemic, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microport-scientific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4487:1" rel="noopener">Microport Scientific (853 HK)</a>’s 2021 performance missed expectations. </li>
<li>Even if Microport could finally digest the negative impact of centralized procurement, its “unique” development mode would still put pressure and uncertainties on future performance/outlook, leading to lower-than-expected results.</li>
<li>Our earnings estimate of Microport in 2022 could be about HK$-1.7, and revenue estimate could be about HK$7.3 billion. It’s quite possible that the Company will not end up profitable.</li>
</ul>


Due to the centralized procurement in PRC market and decreasing volume of operations in overseas markets during pandemic, Microport Scientific (853 HK)’s 2021 performance missed expectations. 
Even if Microport could finally digest the negative impact of centralized procurement, its “unique” development mode would still put pressure and uncertainties on future performance/outlook, leading to lower-than-expected results.
Our earnings estimate of Microport in 2022 could be about HK$-1.7, and revenue estimate could be about HK$7.3 billion. It’s quite possible that the Company will not end up profitable.


Microport Scientific (853.HK)-The “unique” Development Mode Leads to Lower-Than-Expected Performance

China

Microport Cardioflow Medtech Corporation develops and sells medical devices. The Company manufactures and sells vitaflow aortic valve system, alwide balloon catheter, and other products. Microport Cardioflow Medtech markets its products throughout China.

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Microport Cardioflow Medtech (2160 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.30) - Orthopedics VBP, CGT CDMO, Surgical Robots, Bottom of HKEX

Orthopedics VBP result was released,we analyzed the impact on companies; There will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots; There're hidden...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Jenscare Scientific - Difficult to Achieve Expected Commercialization Results

Jenscare’s products have to face fierce competition, with slow development progress. The severe shortage of doctors and limited qualified hospitals...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.12)-AI Drug Discovery, License-In Mode Valuation, Pet Medical Equipment

AI drug discovery is far from meeting the current investment level and expectations. The success of license-in mode must be based on appropriate...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Microport Scientific (853.HK)-The “unique” Development Mode Leads to Lower-Than-Expected Performance

Microport’s 2021 performance missed expectations due to VBP and pandemic. Its “unique” development mode will lead to lower-than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.30) - Orthopedics VBP, CGT CDMO, Surgical Robots, Bottom of HKEX

Orthopedics VBP result was released,we analyzed the impact on companies; There will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots; There're hidden...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Jenscare Scientific (JCS HK) Pre-IPO: Product Differentiation Is the Key Reason to Subscribe

Jenscare Scientific, a China-based medical device company, is looking to raise $30 million through HK IPO. The company has filed application for...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Jenscare Scientific - Difficult to Achieve Expected Commercialization Results

Jenscare’s products have to face fierce competition, with slow development progress. The severe shortage of doctors and limited qualified hospitals...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.12)-AI Drug Discovery, License-In Mode Valuation, Pet Medical Equipment

AI drug discovery is far from meeting the current investment level and expectations. The success of license-in mode must be based on appropriate...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Microport Scientific (853.HK)-The “unique” Development Mode Leads to Lower-Than-Expected Performance

Microport’s 2021 performance missed expectations due to VBP and pandemic. Its “unique” development mode will lead to lower-than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang