Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Microsoft Corporation has demonstrated notable growth and performance in its fiscal year 2026 second quarter.</li><li>The company's financial results were indicative of continued demand for its products, led by impressive growth in Microsoft Cloud, which surpassed $50 billion in revenue, marking a 26% increase year-over-year.</li><li>This growth reflects Microsoft's strategic investments and positioning in the technological landscape, particularly with AI integrations.</li></ul>

Microsoft Corporation has demonstrated notable growth and performance in its fiscal year 2026 second quarter.The company's financial results were indicative of continued demand for its products, led by impressive growth in Microsoft Cloud, which surpassed $50 billion in revenue, marking a 26% increase year-over-year.This growth reflects Microsoft's strategic investments and positioning in the technological landscape, particularly with AI integrations.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Microsoft delivered a robust Q2FY26 earnings report with revenues of $81.3 billion, up 4.7% QoQ, up 17% YoY and handily beating the high end of the guided range</li>
<li>It was an excellent quarter with solid beats and raises, yet the share price slumped 10% in after hours trading and has remained at that depressed level ever since</li>
<li>CapEx ROI concerns &amp; deepening OpenAI exposure may explain some of the decline, but the real issue may actually be what's happening with the number of Tokens being processed.  </li>
</ul>


Microsoft delivered a robust Q2FY26 earnings report with revenues of $81.3 billion, up 4.7% QoQ, up 17% YoY and handily beating the high end of the guided range
It was an excellent quarter with solid beats and raises, yet the share price slumped 10% in after hours trading and has remained at that depressed level ever since
CapEx ROI concerns &amp; deepening OpenAI exposure may explain some of the decline, but the real issue may actually be what's happening with the number of Tokens being processed.  


Microsoft Down ~10% Despite Earnings Beat, Raises & CapEx Growth. What Gives?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are cautious on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM);</li>
<li>Gaps from August 12th and August 4th have been filled on Technology (XLK), semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), neoclouds (NCLD), and momentum (MTUM), which is a concerning development.</li>
<li>Outside of A.I. areas, the market appears healthy; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP) is resuming its leadership status with support at the 20-day MA.</li>
</ul>


We are cautious on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I./Technology areas (XLK, SOXX, CHAT, DRAM);
Gaps from August 12th and August 4th have been filled on Technology (XLK), semiconductors (SOXX, SMH), generative A.I. (CHAT), neoclouds (NCLD), and momentum (MTUM), which is a concerning development.
Outside of A.I. areas, the market appears healthy; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP) is resuming its leadership status with support at the 20-day MA.


Downgrading Technology; Upgrading Energy and Health Care to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Microsoft reported (29 Jan HKT) 2QFY26 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$81.3bn, up 16.7% YoY (1QFY26: +18.4% YoY), 1.5%/1.2% better than both our forecast/Bloomberg consensus estimates, driven by better-than-expected revenue generation in Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) and Intelligent Cloud (IC) segment.</li><li>Operating income was up 20.9% YoY to US$38.3bn, 3.8%/4.8% ahead of our forecast/consensus, also driven by the beat in PBP and IC segments.</li><li>Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 38% on a constant currency basis was inline with consensus, while the capex including financial leases of US$37.5bn was 3% higher. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Microsoft reported (29 Jan HKT) 2QFY26 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$81.3bn, up 16.7% YoY (1QFY26: +18.4% YoY), 1.5%/1.2% better than both our forecast/Bloomberg consensus estimates, driven by better-than-expected revenue generation in Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) and Intelligent Cloud (IC) segment.Operating income was up 20.9% YoY to US$38.3bn, 3.8%/4.8% ahead of our forecast/consensus, also driven by the beat in PBP and IC segments.Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 38% on a constant currency basis was inline with consensus, while the capex including financial leases of US$37.5bn was 3% higher. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Microsoft (MSFT US) - Results Beat; Long-Term Structural Growth Story Remains Unchanged

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week: Ox Alpha appeared on OpenRouter and Stripe agreed to buy OpenRouter.</li>
<li>DeepSeek added vision to V4 Flash, OpenAI paused Astra RL work, and Alibaba and Baidu reported faster AI-linked growth.</li>
<li>YMTC moved toward a Shanghai IPO, Nvidia backed OpenAI capacity, and Anthropic added IPO banks and credit capacity.</li>
</ul>


We tracked AI models, infrastructure, and M&amp;A this week: Ox Alpha appeared on OpenRouter and Stripe agreed to buy OpenRouter.
DeepSeek added vision to V4 Flash, OpenAI paused Astra RL work, and Alibaba and Baidu reported faster AI-linked growth.
YMTC moved toward a Shanghai IPO, Nvidia backed OpenAI capacity, and Anthropic added IPO banks and credit capacity.


This Week in AI (Aug 16-22): Mysterious Ox Alpha Model; Stripe Buys OpenRouter; YMTC's IPO

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

Microsoft Earnings: 365

Microsoft Corporation has demonstrated notable growth and performance in its fiscal year 2026 second quarter. The company's financial results were...

Baptista Research

Microsoft Down ~10% Despite Earnings Beat, Raises & CapEx Growth. What Gives?

CapEx ROI concerns & deepening OpenAI exposure may explain some of the decline, but the real issue may actually be what's happening with the number...

William Keating

Downgrading Technology; Upgrading Energy and Health Care to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names

Downgrading Technology $XLK $SOXX $SMH; Upgrading Energy $XLE and Health Care $XLV to Overweight; Caution Within A.I. Names; Outside of A.I. areas,...

Vermilion Research

Microsoft (MSFT US) - Results Beat; Long-Term Structural Growth Story Remains Unchanged

Microsoft reported (29 Jan HKT) 2QFY26 (June year-end) results: revenue was US$81.3bn, up 16.7% YoY (1QFY26: +18.4% YoY), 1.5%/1.2% better than...

CMB International

This Week in AI (Aug 16-22): Mysterious Ox Alpha Model; Stripe Buys OpenRouter; YMTC's IPO

This week in AI: Ox Alpha appears on OpenRouter; Stripe buys OpenRouter for over USD 7bn; OpenAI pauses Astra RL; YMTC files Shanghai IPO.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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