AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.</li>
<li>While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the <em>pricing</em> boom may be peaking.</li>
<li>Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.</li>
</ul>


Citi’s claim that AI has triggered the first true semiconductor upcycle in 25 years is partially convincing but also shows signs of overreach.
While ASPs have soared and logic chip margins are inflated, signs of margin compression, overordering, and inventory noise suggest the pricing boom may be peaking.
Investors may need to distinguish between capital-efficient AI bets and overleveraged plays, especially as credit markets begin to price in growing execution and demand risks.


Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Amazon is navigating a dynamic tech landscape, leveraging its strong position in AI infrastructure and cloud services to drive long-term value creation and maintain a premium valuation in the market.</li>
<li>The company is making strategic investments in AI chips and foundational AI companies like Anthropic, aiming to optimize efficiency and scalability in its AWS segment.</li>
<li>Despite a current range-bound stock price, Amazon's financial metrics and company culture approach underscore its commitment to growth and competitive advantage in the evolving tech ecosystem.</li>
</ul>


Amazon is navigating a dynamic tech landscape, leveraging its strong position in AI infrastructure and cloud services to drive long-term value creation and maintain a premium valuation in the market.
The company is making strategic investments in AI chips and foundational AI companies like Anthropic, aiming to optimize efficiency and scalability in its AWS segment.
Despite a current range-bound stock price, Amazon's financial metrics and company culture approach underscore its commitment to growth and competitive advantage in the evolving tech ecosystem.


Amazon: Still Riding the Tech Volatility Wave

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>If all of the publicly announced sovereign AI initiatives come to pass, they could account for upwards of $1 trillion in AI infrastructure spending through 2030</li>
<li>For now, "sovereign" AI means mostly means made in the USA. However, there a growing demand for "sovereign" AI from China, particularly among countries disillusioned by the US trade wars</li>
<li>In general AI infrastructure, the US is outspending China six to one in 2025. Could one be spending too much and the other spending too little? Let's see... </li>
</ul>


If all of the publicly announced sovereign AI initiatives come to pass, they could account for upwards of $1 trillion in AI infrastructure spending through 2030
For now, "sovereign" AI means mostly means made in the USA. However, there a growing demand for "sovereign" AI from China, particularly among countries disillusioned by the US trade wars
In general AI infrastructure, the US is outspending China six to one in 2025. Could one be spending too much and the other spending too little? Let's see... 


Sovereign AI. National Strategic Imperative, FOMO Or Both?

<ul>
<li>3 global futures and options topics we covered included global equities, Brent, and Gold.  We review the topics discussed and look forward to another interesting month of volatility trades.</li>
<li>NK remains moderately interesting for NK vs MSCI World vol with the leadership change coming up, though deep downside swings would not be expected.</li>
<li>Were bullish on AI stocks, and highlighted a few favorites with some tactical options trades to monetize existing equity longs or put on new hedged volatility positions.</li>
</ul>


3 global futures and options topics we covered included global equities, Brent, and Gold.  We review the topics discussed and look forward to another interesting month of volatility trades.
NK remains moderately interesting for NK vs MSCI World vol with the leadership change coming up, though deep downside swings would not be expected.
Were bullish on AI stocks, and highlighted a few favorites with some tactical options trades to monetize existing equity longs or put on new hedged volatility positions.


A Rundown of the Last Month's Futures and Options, Stock Options Views

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Micron Earnings Call Analysis: AI Memory Tailwinds Getting Stronger as Servers, Smartphone, PC Demand Converge</li>
<li>MediaTek Sharpens Flagship Push, Aiming for 40% Global Market Share... Also, Exploring U.S. Production Set Up</li>
<li>KYEC (2449.TT): The Recent Upward Momentum in the Share Price Has Been Driven by Strong Fundamentals </li>
</ul>


Micron Earnings Call Analysis: AI Memory Tailwinds Getting Stronger as Servers, Smartphone, PC Demand Converge
MediaTek Sharpens Flagship Push, Aiming for 40% Global Market Share... Also, Exploring U.S. Production Set Up
KYEC (2449.TT): The Recent Upward Momentum in the Share Price Has Been Driven by Strong Fundamentals 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Eyes US Manufacturing, 40% Global Mkt Share; Micron Earnings Take-Aways

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Amazon: Still Riding the Tech Volatility Wave

Amazon is strategically investing in AI infrastructure to drive long-term value and maintain a competitive edge in the tech landscape. A trade,...

Jay Cameron

Sovereign AI. National Strategic Imperative, FOMO Or Both?

In general AI infrastructure, the US is outspending China six to one in 2025. Could one be spending too much and the other spending too little?...

William Keating

A Rundown of the Last Month's Futures and Options, Stock Options Views

Global futures and options topics covered include global equities, Brent, and Gold, with a focus on volatility trades and unchanged views on Gold...

Jay Cameron

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Citi’s AI Supercycle Thesis Faces a Logic Check

​Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Mint Finance

Amazon: Still Riding the Tech Volatility Wave

​Amazon is strategically investing in AI infrastructure to drive long-term value and maintain a competitive edge in the tech landscape. A trade,...

Jay Cameron

Sovereign AI. National Strategic Imperative, FOMO Or Both?

In general AI infrastructure, the US is outspending China six to one in 2025. Could one be spending too much and the other spending too little?...

William Keating

A Rundown of the Last Month's Futures and Options, Stock Options Views

​Global futures and options topics covered include global equities, Brent, and Gold, with a focus on volatility trades and unchanged views on Gold...

Jay Cameron

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek Eyes US Manufacturing, 40% Global Mkt Share; Micron Earnings Take-Aways

​Micron sees AI memory demand rising, MediaTek targets 40% market share, KYEC's stock surge driven by strong fundamentals.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Citi believes AI has sparked a semiconductor upcycle, but warnings about potential overreach and pricing peaks still exist. Investors should be...

Amazon is strategically investing in AI infrastructure to drive long-term value and maintain a competitive edge in the tech landscape. A trade,...

Global futures and options topics covered include global equities, Brent, and Gold, with a focus on volatility trades and unchanged views on Gold...

Micron sees AI memory demand rising, MediaTek targets 40% market share, KYEC's stock surge driven by strong fundamentals.