Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Google: increased 2025 Capex ($75bn -&gt; 85bn). Capex will increase in 2026. Higher capex is justified by “strong demand for Cloud products and services“.</li>
<li>Meta: last quarter increased 2025 Capex ($62.5bn -&gt; 68bn). This quarter, more modest $1bn increase to $69bn. Meta expects “another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026”.</li>
<li>Microsoft: FY26 Capex growth will moderate compared to FY25 (FY25 Capex increased 58% YoY).</li>
</ul>


Google: increased 2025 Capex ($75bn -&gt; 85bn). Capex will increase in 2026. Higher capex is justified by “strong demand for Cloud products and services“.
Meta: last quarter increased 2025 Capex ($62.5bn -&gt; 68bn). This quarter, more modest $1bn increase to $69bn. Meta expects “another year of similarly significant capital expenditures dollar growth in 2026”.
Microsoft: FY26 Capex growth will moderate compared to FY25 (FY25 Capex increased 58% YoY).


Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Magnificent 7 positioning remains elevated across global funds, but momentum has clearly stalled, with recent activity pointing to consolidation rather than renewed conviction buying. </li>
<li>Growth and GARP funds are near fully allocated, while Value and Yield managers remain structurally underweight— potentially limiting the potential for broad-based participation from here. </li>
<li>Microsoft leads with cross-style appeal; Tesla lags with minimal support. Apple is the conviction underweight, while NVIDIA’s benchmark surge has left it at a record active underweight.</li>
</ul>


Magnificent 7 positioning remains elevated across global funds, but momentum has clearly stalled, with recent activity pointing to consolidation rather than renewed conviction buying. 
Growth and GARP funds are near fully allocated, while Value and Yield managers remain structurally underweight— potentially limiting the potential for broad-based participation from here. 
Microsoft leads with cross-style appeal; Tesla lags with minimal support. Apple is the conviction underweight, while NVIDIA’s benchmark surge has left it at a record active underweight.


Magnificent 7:  Global Fund Positioning Update

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>MSFT is set to report Q4 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, July 30.</li>
<li>We examine the implied volatility and projected earnings-day move following a near 30% rally since the last report.</li>
<li>Volatility metrics and historical earnings reactions are analyzed to help frame expectations.</li>
</ul>


MSFT is set to report Q4 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, July 30.
We examine the implied volatility and projected earnings-day move following a near 30% rally since the last report.
Volatility metrics and historical earnings reactions are analyzed to help frame expectations.


MSFT Q4 Earnings: Exceedingly Calm Trading Drags Implied Vol Lower

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.</li><li>Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.</li><li>Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.</li></ul>

Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Microsoft’s long-standing alliance with OpenAI, once hailed as one of the most successful partnerships in tech, appears to be nearing a dramatic and possibly messy end.</li><li>The tensions have come to a head in recent weeks amid reports of OpenAI considering antitrust action against Microsoft, internal disagreements over IP access and corporate restructuring, and mounting competitive overlap in AI services.</li><li>Simultaneously, Microsoft is preparing for another round of layoffs, this time targeting its massive sales workforce, in a bid to contain costs associated with its multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure investments.</li></ul>

Microsoft’s long-standing alliance with OpenAI, once hailed as one of the most successful partnerships in tech, appears to be nearing a dramatic and possibly messy end.The tensions have come to a head in recent weeks amid reports of OpenAI considering antitrust action against Microsoft, internal disagreements over IP access and corporate restructuring, and mounting competitive overlap in AI services.Simultaneously, Microsoft is preparing for another round of layoffs, this time targeting its massive sales workforce, in a bid to contain costs associated with its multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure investments.

Microsoft’s OpenAI Divorce Could Trigger a Tech Earthquake: Here’s What The Tech Behemoth Stands to Lose!

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...

Nicolas Baratte

Magnificent 7: Global Fund Positioning Update

Positioning in the Magnificent 7 remains near record highs, but momentum is fading as growth funds top out and value remains sidelined.

Steven Holden

MSFT Q4 Earnings: Exceedingly Calm Trading Drags Implied Vol Lower

Despite a nearly 30% rally, MSFT’s volatility setup reflects a rare stretch of subdued trading ahead of a closely watched earnings release.

John Ley

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

Think about how good Nvidia's earnings are. It's even better than that. Think about it again. It's better still. It's that good. Jokes aside,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Microsoft’s OpenAI Divorce Could Trigger a Tech Earthquake: Here’s What The Tech Behemoth Stands to Lose!

Microsoft’s long-standing alliance with OpenAI, once hailed as one of the most successful partnerships in tech, appears to be nearing a dramatic...

Baptista Research

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Hyperscalers 2Q25: Revenue Growth Accelerates, Cloud Revenues Accelerate, Capex Higher

​Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...

Nicolas Baratte

Magnificent 7: Global Fund Positioning Update

Positioning in the Magnificent 7 remains near record highs, but momentum is fading as growth funds top out and value remains sidelined.

Steven Holden

MSFT Q4 Earnings: Exceedingly Calm Trading Drags Implied Vol Lower

Despite a nearly 30% rally, MSFT’s volatility setup reflects a rare stretch of subdued trading ahead of a closely watched earnings release.

John Ley

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

Think about how good Nvidia's earnings are. It's even better than that. Think about it again. It's better still. It's that good. Jokes aside,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Microsoft’s OpenAI Divorce Could Trigger a Tech Earthquake: Here’s What The Tech Behemoth Stands to Lose!

Microsoft’s long-standing alliance with OpenAI, once hailed as one of the most successful partnerships in tech, appears to be nearing a dramatic...

Baptista Research

Google, Meta and Microsoft will increase in 2026. Don’t look for complications, some firms have 70-100% market share: Nvidia, TSMC, SK Hynix and...