Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On Thursday, the Nikkei came out with an <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/BOJ-to-widen-interest-rate-target-range-to-support-bank-profits" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> during the lunch break of equities trading. The headline said "BOJ to widen interest rate target range to support bank profits" and indeed in the article it noted that the BOJ would allow the long end of the curve to fluctuate more widely, creating a slightly steeper curve. This could lead to slightly better bank profits less because of the extra 5bp on the curve but more because of the expectation of forcing borrowers to pay more on an absolute basis. What was MORE important for equity markets was the idea that the BOJ "would also abolish its target for purchasing exchange-traded funds, now 6 trillion yen ($55 billion) per year, and instead vow to make such purchases only in times of market turmoil."The article also suggested that the "Target" would be removed for the ¥90bn of J-REITs they buy as a base case (doubled now to ¥180bn as the ¥6trln was doubled to ¥12trln in the depths of the covid crash of March 2020). This move caused Nikkei to underperform TOPIX on the day. TOPIX actually ended up on the day, and ended above where the market closed the AM session before the article came out. Nikkei fell, and started underperforming TOPIX from that point on. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/872/original/Screenshot+2021-03-21+at+3.26.17+PM.png?1616311594" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195872"></figure></section>Nikkei underperformed TOPIX in the AM session on Friday, and when the BOJ announcements came mid-day on Friday, there were additional subtleties involved. The details are <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/rel210319c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. The presentation with the basic details is <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/k210319b.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.<ul>
<li>The target rates for ETF and REIT buying will be abolished, but the current "Target Rate" of annual buying will become annual maxima (¥12 trillion for ETFs, ¥180bn for J-REITs, with ongoing maximum ownership limits on ETFs in place).</li>
<li>Buying of ETFs and J-REITs will be conducted "as necessary" "in times of market turbulence" and such buying will be done only on TOPIX ETFs.</li>
<li>The "Special Rules for Purchases of ETFs to Support Firms Proactively Investing in Physical and Human Capital" will continue as before with only specific ETFs permitted in this group. The amount of ~¥300bn/year and ¥1.2bn per business day will continue.</li>
</ul>It based the new policy on the Reference <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/k210319c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">document</a> which backs up the changes in policy is much more interesting reading.  Appendix 5 and Chart 12 are the parts you want to read.The hypotheses and results are described here.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/869/original/Screenshot+2021-03-21+at+3.02.28+PM.png?1616310186" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195869"></figure></section>There are a couple of other side conclusions but the base understanding is...<div class="content-highlight">When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  </div><h3>What This Means</h3><ul>
<li>When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  </li>
<li>Expect the BOJ to follow the concept of its study (Appendix 5 again).</li>
<li>Expect the BOJ to pay greater attention to futures activity. </li>
</ul><h3>What This Does NOT Mean</h3><ul><li>It does NOT mean the BOJ will be selling any ETFs.</li></ul><hr>It is worthwhile taking a look at WHY the market reacted the way it did on Thursday and Friday afternoon, and it is worthwhile looking at what the BOJ ETF buying might look like going forward. So we do so below the fold.Note: This is part 1 of the analysis of potential future BOJ ETF Buying. Part II looks at the difference in single stock makeup.

On Thursday, the Nikkei came out with an article during the lunch break of equities trading. The headline said "BOJ to widen interest rate target range to support bank profits" and indeed in the article it noted that the BOJ would allow the long end of the curve to fluctuate more widely, creating a slightly steeper curve. This could lead to slightly better bank profits less because of the extra 5bp on the curve but more because of the expectation of forcing borrowers to pay more on an absolute basis. What was MORE important for equity markets was the idea that the BOJ "would also abolish its target for purchasing exchange-traded funds, now 6 trillion yen ($55 billion) per year, and instead vow to make such purchases only in times of market turmoil."The article also suggested that the "Target" would be removed for the ¥90bn of J-REITs they buy as a base case (doubled now to ¥180bn as the ¥6trln was doubled to ¥12trln in the depths of the covid crash of March 2020). This move caused Nikkei to underperform TOPIX on the day. TOPIX actually ended up on the day, and ended above where the market closed the AM session before the article came out. Nikkei fell, and started underperforming TOPIX from that point on. Nikkei underperformed TOPIX in the AM session on Friday, and when the BOJ announcements came mid-day on Friday, there were additional subtleties involved. The details are here. The presentation with the basic details is here.
The target rates for ETF and REIT buying will be abolished, but the current "Target Rate" of annual buying will become annual maxima (¥12 trillion for ETFs, ¥180bn for J-REITs, with ongoing maximum ownership limits on ETFs in place).
Buying of ETFs and J-REITs will be conducted "as necessary" "in times of market turbulence" and such buying will be done only on TOPIX ETFs.
The "Special Rules for Purchases of ETFs to Support Firms Proactively Investing in Physical and Human Capital" will continue as before with only specific ETFs permitted in this group. The amount of ~¥300bn/year and ¥1.2bn per business day will continue.
It based the new policy on the Reference document which backs up the changes in policy is much more interesting reading.  Appendix 5 and Chart 12 are the parts you want to read.The hypotheses and results are described here.There are a couple of other side conclusions but the base understanding is...When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  What This Means
When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  
Expect the BOJ to follow the concept of its study (Appendix 5 again).
Expect the BOJ to pay greater attention to futures activity. 
What This Does NOT MeanIt does NOT mean the BOJ will be selling any ETFs.It is worthwhile taking a look at WHY the market reacted the way it did on Thursday and Friday afternoon, and it is worthwhile looking at what the BOJ ETF buying might look like going forward. So we do so below the fold.Note: This is part 1 of the analysis of potential future BOJ ETF Buying. Part II looks at the difference in single stock makeup. 

Quantifying the BOJ Change in ETF Policy: Assessing Future ETF Buying Methodology

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> has, for over a decade, been restructuring itself - selling subsidiaries here and buying them in there. There are two remaining after the recent sale of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14457:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP)</a>, de-consolidation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-capital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14410:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Capital (8586 JP)</a>, and buy-in of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-high-tech-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7046:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP)</a>. The earnings call in May occasioned another presentation - that of the update on <a href="http://www.hitachi.com/New/cnews/month/2020/05/200529a.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Progress of the Mid-Term Management Plan</a> (with a webcast and a <a href="http://www.hitachi.com/New/cnews/month/2020/05/200529a/f_200529apre.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation deck</a>), where the CEO responded to a question thusly:<div><blockquote>
QUESTION:  Next question is regarding the, against the backdrop of COVID-19, is this going to have an impact on the reorganisation of the listed subsidiaries?
ANSWER BY CEO HIGASHIHARA:  Regarding the listed subsidiary answer. Hitachi Construction Machinery and Hitachi Metals remain. And what we are telling the top management is that, in the time frame of fiscal year 2021 to 2024, we have to make sure these companies are able to compete globally. They are now evaluating this. It is not just a matter of COVID-19. Mid- to long-term growth strategy will be emphasised so the reorganisation strategy for the listed subsidiaries will not be impacted by COVID-19.
</blockquote></div><div>
FY 2021 to FY 2024 is a three year window starting next April, with FY2021 ending in March 2022 and FY2024 ending in March 2025.
<div>
That was May 29, less than five months ago and the situation was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hitachi-s-capital-case-liquidating-land-policy-holdings-what-about-the-subs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39920" rel="noopener">Hitachi's Capital Case - Liquidating Land &amp; Policy Holdings? What About the Subs?</a>.
Friday saw an article out of the Nikkei suggesting Hitachi might sell half its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-construction-machinery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19433:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)</a> ("HCM") to a third party, at a discount, and that it might start a sale process on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> "this month."
</div>
<div>
It strikes me as unlikely Hitachi would themselves be throwing in the towel 5 months later before the start of the time frame in which top management of the two subsidiaries are supposed to be able to compete globally. All of this is likely getting done with the will and direction of the subsidiaries themselves. This strikes me as some kind of agreement with management of HCM that they would not be averse to receiving expert help from outside while remaining listed. 
This changes things.
Hitachi becomes a different animal. It becomes a non-stub trade (parent vs significant value of listed short-able subs) for the first time in a very long time. And the optics change quite a bit.
</div>
</div>

Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) has, for over a decade, been restructuring itself - selling subsidiaries here and buying them in there. There are two remaining after the recent sale of Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP), de-consolidation of Hitachi Capital (8586 JP), and buy-in of Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP). The earnings call in May occasioned another presentation - that of the update on Progress of the Mid-Term Management Plan (with a webcast and a presentation deck), where the CEO responded to a question thusly:
QUESTION:  Next question is regarding the, against the backdrop of COVID-19, is this going to have an impact on the reorganisation of the listed subsidiaries?
ANSWER BY CEO HIGASHIHARA:  Regarding the listed subsidiary answer. Hitachi Construction Machinery and Hitachi Metals remain. And what we are telling the top management is that, in the time frame of fiscal year 2021 to 2024, we have to make sure these companies are able to compete globally. They are now evaluating this. It is not just a matter of COVID-19. Mid- to long-term growth strategy will be emphasised so the reorganisation strategy for the listed subsidiaries will not be impacted by COVID-19.

FY 2021 to FY 2024 is a three year window starting next April, with FY2021 ending in March 2022 and FY2024 ending in March 2025.

That was May 29, less than five months ago and the situation was discussed in Hitachi's Capital Case - Liquidating Land &amp; Policy Holdings? What About the Subs?.
Friday saw an article out of the Nikkei suggesting Hitachi might sell half its stake in Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP) ("HCM") to a third party, at a discount, and that it might start a sale process on Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) "this month."


It strikes me as unlikely Hitachi would themselves be throwing in the towel 5 months later before the start of the time frame in which top management of the two subsidiaries are supposed to be able to compete globally. All of this is likely getting done with the will and direction of the subsidiaries themselves. This strikes me as some kind of agreement with management of HCM that they would not be averse to receiving expert help from outside while remaining listed. 
This changes things.
Hitachi becomes a different animal. It becomes a non-stub trade (parent vs significant value of listed short-able subs) for the first time in a very long time. And the optics change quite a bit.



In May 2016, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a>  <a href="https://www.hitachi.com/New/cnews/month/2016/05/f_160513a.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a transaction whereby they sold a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-capital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14410:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Capital (8586 JP)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-lease-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1467:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Lease &amp; Finance (8593 JP)</a> to de-consolidate their holding, but would retain a 'negative control' stake of 33.4%. The result was a business and capital alliance designed to achieve more scale for the leasing companies and to improve the capital efficiency of Hitachi itself. The moves by Hitachi to improve its capital efficiency have come fast and furious the last few years with sales of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-kokusai-electric-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2523:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Kokusai Electric (6756 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18359:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Koki (6581 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14457:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP)</a>, a buy-in of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-high-tech-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7046:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP)</a>, and a selldown to de-consolidate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> in 2016, and now more recently there is media speculation about the eventual disposition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-construction-machinery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19433:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)</a>.When earnings were presented in May this year, there was a small section in the presentation deck on the bottom half of p15 of the Update on the Mid-Term Management Plan <a href="http://www.hitachi.com/New/cnews/month/2020/05/200529a/f_200529apre.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation </a>(the <a href="http://www.hitachi.co.jp/New/cnews/month/2020/05/0529a/f_0529apre.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a> version has an extra word which helps clarify) talking about sales of property and assets and this got people excited. I went through it in some detail in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hitachi-s-capital-case-liquidating-land-policy-holdings-what-about-the-subs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39920" rel="noopener">Hitachi's Capital Case - Liquidating Land &amp; Policy Holdings? What About the Subs?</a> and that indicated there was time for the remaining subs.<h2>The NEW News</h2>Today during business hours, there was a news story out on Diamond Online followed by a quick story on Bloomberg saying that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-capital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14410:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Capital (8586 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-lease-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1467:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Lease &amp; Finance (8593 JP)</a> had decided to merge, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> would each own 20% of the new merged company. The <a href="https://www.hitachi-capital.co.jp/hcc/english/newsrelease/2020/20200924e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> came after the close. The two companies would merge at a share exchange ratio of 1.0:5.1, with the effective date of the Merger on 1 April 2021, and shareholder meetings for each company to approve the deal in late February 2021, but it does not discuss the idea of Mitsubishi Corp owning 20% of the combined company (it already owns 20% of MUFJ Lease but its stake would be diluted in the merger.As always, more below the fold.

In May 2016, Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)  announced a transaction whereby they sold a stake in Hitachi Capital (8586 JP) to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Lease &amp; Finance (8593 JP) to de-consolidate their holding, but would retain a 'negative control' stake of 33.4%. The result was a business and capital alliance designed to achieve more scale for the leasing companies and to improve the capital efficiency of Hitachi itself. The moves by Hitachi to improve its capital efficiency have come fast and furious the last few years with sales of Hitachi Kokusai Electric (6756 JP), Hitachi Koki (6581 JP), Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP), a buy-in of Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP), and a selldown to de-consolidate Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) in 2016, and now more recently there is media speculation about the eventual disposition of Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) and Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP).When earnings were presented in May this year, there was a small section in the presentation deck on the bottom half of p15 of the Update on the Mid-Term Management Plan presentation (the Japanese version has an extra word which helps clarify) talking about sales of property and assets and this got people excited. I went through it in some detail in Hitachi's Capital Case - Liquidating Land &amp; Policy Holdings? What About the Subs? and that indicated there was time for the remaining subs.The NEW NewsToday during business hours, there was a news story out on Diamond Online followed by a quick story on Bloomberg saying that Hitachi Capital (8586 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Lease &amp; Finance (8593 JP) had decided to merge, and Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) would each own 20% of the new merged company. The announcement came after the close. The two companies would merge at a share exchange ratio of 1.0:5.1, with the effective date of the Merger on 1 April 2021, and shareholder meetings for each company to approve the deal in late February 2021, but it does not discuss the idea of Mitsubishi Corp owning 20% of the combined company (it already owns 20% of MUFJ Lease but its stake would be diluted in the merger.As always, more below the fold.

Hitachi's Hitachi Capital Capital Case - A Merger With MUFG Lease

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>The Offer Implies MC’s Confidence in MMC</h2>In our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mitsubishi-motors-makes-a-fast-recovery-from-a-troublesome-year" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15670">Mitsubishi Motors Makes a Fast Recovery from a Troublesome Year</a>, we expected a big earnings upgrade for Mitsubishi Motors Corporation (MMC) in the next two years. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20668" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1">Mitsubishi Corp</a>'s (MC) recent announcement to raise their stake in MMC reaffirms our bullish outlook.MC has decided to increase their stake in MMC to 20.00% from 9.23% (through MAI Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of MC). The purpose of this is to optimize the…

The Offer Implies MC’s Confidence in MMCIn our previous note, Mitsubishi Motors Makes a Fast Recovery from a Troublesome Year, we expected a big earnings upgrade for Mitsubishi Motors Corporation (MMC) in the next two years. Mitsubishi Corp's (MC) recent announcement to raise their stake in MMC reaffirms our bullish outlook.MC has decided to increase their stake in MMC to 20.00% from 9.23% (through MAI Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of MC). The purpose of this is to optimize the…

Mitsubishi Corporation’s Decision to Increase Stake in Mitsubishi Motors a Green Flag?

Japan

Mitsubishi HC Capital Inc. provides customer finance services. The Company leases machinery and equipment, aircraft and ships, office buildings, and more. Mitsubishi HC Capital serves clients across worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mitsubishi HC Capital (8593 JP)

Quantifying the BOJ Change in ETF Policy: Assessing Future ETF Buying Methodology

The BOJ has announced a change in ETF Buying Program Parameters. The study/review they did is required reading to understand how they might buy...

Travis Lundy

The Right Trade May Be Hitachi

Hitachi is getting to the end of its Core vs Non-Core restructuring campaign. Two remaining subs have newsflow, and earnings announcements shortly....

Travis Lundy

Hitachi's Hitachi Capital Capital Case - A Merger With MUFG Lease

In May 2016, Hitachi

Travis Lundy

Mitsubishi Corporation’s Decision to Increase Stake in Mitsubishi Motors a Green Flag?

The Offer Implies MC’s Confidence in MMCIn our previous note, Mitsubishi Motors Makes a Fast Recovery from a Troublesome Year, we expected a big...

Supun Walpola

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)