Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 9 May <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a> delayed earnings by 30 minutes. Shares popped. Then earnings were released, no deal, and shares crashed. Now they are rebounding.</li>
<li>But they remain volatile and subject to dips like the one this AM -5% at one point. Fears may be due to the idea that first smoke here was Dec-2024.</li>
<li>5 months later, no deal yet. Bids were due pre-earnings but with tariffs and writedowns, one wonders if bidders were waiting for results.</li>
</ul>


On 9 May Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) delayed earnings by 30 minutes. Shares popped. Then earnings were released, no deal, and shares crashed. Now they are rebounding.
But they remain volatile and subject to dips like the one this AM -5% at one point. Fears may be due to the idea that first smoke here was Dec-2024.
5 months later, no deal yet. Bids were due pre-earnings but with tariffs and writedowns, one wonders if bidders were waiting for results.


[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4819:1" rel="noopener">IHI Corp (7013 JP)</a> has had a monster rally over the last year with the stock price tripling over the period. That could now result in a global index inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4819:1" rel="noopener">IHI Corp (7013 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers over the last year but still trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on quite a few valuation metrics.</li>
<li>The appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar pattern in its peers too. There could be some upside over the near term.</li>
</ul>



IHI Corp (7013 JP) has had a monster rally over the last year with the stock price tripling over the period. That could now result in a global index inclusion.

IHI Corp (7013 JP) has outperformed its peers over the last year but still trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on quite a few valuation metrics.
The appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar pattern in its peers too. There could be some upside over the near term.


IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The DR/DRx investment portfolio opened a position in MITSU19, which is the underlying security of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries listed on the Japanese stock market.</li><li>The average price of the underlying securities in the portfolio was relatively flat at around -0.01%, amid a market in a wait-and-see mode awaiting new developments.</li><li>According to our analysis using the KTX USD/THB Carry Trade model, the Thai baht has recently appreciated from previously undervalued levels.</li></ul>

The DR/DRx investment portfolio opened a position in MITSU19, which is the underlying security of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries listed on the Japanese stock market.The average price of the underlying securities in the portfolio was relatively flat at around -0.01%, amid a market in a wait-and-see mode awaiting new developments.According to our analysis using the KTX USD/THB Carry Trade model, the Thai baht has recently appreciated from previously undervalued levels.

KTX Tactical DR / DRX Picks - 29 April 2025 (Eng.)

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>At a zero net debt zero net cash (securities liquidated) Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio of 11.3x expected Net Income, the multiple offered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP)</a> is not a knock-out.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name. Avoid</li>
<li>New Trump Tariffs are not based on any actual tariffs, or non-tariff measures. The simple/explicit assumption is that if you run a trade surplus with the US, you are cheating.</li>
</ul>


At a zero net debt zero net cash (securities liquidated) Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio of 11.3x expected Net Income, the multiple offered Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP) is not a knock-out.

ENN Energy (2688 HK) investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name. Avoid
New Trump Tariffs are not based on any actual tariffs, or non-tariff measures. The simple/explicit assumption is that if you run a trade surplus with the US, you are cheating.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

<ul>
<li>There was a Nikkei article in December about the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> selling its interests in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The stock popped. Then popped some more. It was not expensive yet, but no longer dirt cheap. Now the stock is falling as Trump Tariffs threaten to throttle exports.</li>
<li>The reasons why this takeout price could be "high" are unchanged. Tariffs meant to drive US-manufacturing don't reduce need for forklifts. Logisnext is not badly placed.</li>
</ul>


There was a Nikkei article in December about the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) selling its interests in Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP). 
The stock popped. Then popped some more. It was not expensive yet, but no longer dirt cheap. Now the stock is falling as Trump Tariffs threaten to throttle exports.
The reasons why this takeout price could be "high" are unchanged. Tariffs meant to drive US-manufacturing don't reduce need for forklifts. Logisnext is not badly placed.


Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale

Japan

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. is a comprehensive heavy machinery maker. The Company manufactures machinery, ships, turbines and engines, prime movers, aircrafts, and machine parts for military and commercial use.  Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also researches and develops nuclear power plants.

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Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)

[Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good

The Mitsubishi Logisnext potential takeover isn't seeing updates. But earnings and guidance with writedowns and new outlook were out late last...

Travis Lundy

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

IHI is up 24% over the last few weeks and the upcoming index inclusion could give it another bump higher. If you are in, look to exit over the next...

Brian Freitas

KTX Tactical DR / DRX Picks - 29 April 2025 (Eng.)

The DR/DRx investment portfolio opened a position in MITSU19, which is the underlying security of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries listed on the...

Krungthai XSpring

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) - Worth Buying The Dip On Likely Sale

Logisnext is dipping on market dip (some would put it more strongly). This deal is not specifically tariff-risk (imho) because US mfg plants are an...

Travis Lundy

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