Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.</li>
<li>Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.</li>
<li>Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.</li>
</ul>


Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.
Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.
Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.


Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Nickel surges after Freeport's Indonesian closure will have long term pricing impact. Watch SMM, MMS and Mit Materials.</li>
<li>Inrel approaches Apple for partnership, although its unlikely they can push out TSMC for chips.</li>
<li>Memory takes a break after Micon's earnings seen as not quite good enough after recent gains.</li>
</ul>


Nickel surges after Freeport's Indonesian closure will have long term pricing impact. Watch SMM, MMS and Mit Materials.
Inrel approaches Apple for partnership, although its unlikely they can push out TSMC for chips.
Memory takes a break after Micon's earnings seen as not quite good enough after recent gains.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

<ul>
<li>Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.</li>
<li>Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).</li>
<li>Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.</li>
</ul>


Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.
Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).
Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.


Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

<ul>
<li>Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.</li>
<li>Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.</li>
<li>With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.</li>
</ul>


Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.
Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.
With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.


Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

<ul>
<li>Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.</li>
<li>Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.</li>
<li>Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.</li>
</ul>


Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.
Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.
Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.


Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Japan

MITSUBISHI MATERIALS CORPORATION manufactures and processes non-ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, lead, gold, and silver.  The Company also produces other products such as cement, aluminum cans, silicon, fine chemicals, and electronic materials.  Ube Industries, an affiliate, sells cement products.

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Mitsubishi Materials (5711 JP)

Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Rahul Jain

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

Global defense names did well after Trump's comments of support for Ukraine. Marvell jumped after management announced a $1bn accelerated buyback.

Andrew Jackson

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

​Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Rahul Jain

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

Global defense names did well after Trump's comments of support for Ukraine. Marvell jumped after management announced a $1bn accelerated buyback.

Andrew Jackson

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

​Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

​Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

​Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...