Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-pencil-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3719:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Pencil (7976 JP)</a>'s shoicking governance, unless you are willing to fight it in court (and probably lose), the right thing to do here is buy on weakness.</li>
<li>Assuming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power (836 HK)</a>'s A-share listing of its renewable energy unit unfolds,  there remains material upside here. </li>
<li>Perhaps <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison (1 HK)</a> now views the (required) high forward spending on VodafoneThree to secure this "golden ticket" no longer makes commercial sense</li>
</ul>


Despite Mitsubishi Pencil (7976 JP)'s shoicking governance, unless you are willing to fight it in court (and probably lose), the right thing to do here is buy on weakness.
Assuming China Resources Power (836 HK)'s A-share listing of its renewable energy unit unfolds,  there remains material upside here. 
Perhaps CK Hutchison (1 HK) now views the (required) high forward spending on VodafoneThree to secure this "golden ticket" no longer makes commercial sense


Last Week In Event SPACE: Mitsubishi Pencil, China Resources Power, CK Hutchison, Guoco

Travis Lundy

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cash-And-Securities-Rich (half of market cap in net cash+securities+real estate) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-pencil-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3719:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Pencil (7976 JP)</a> announced Q1 earnings on 30 April. Up 68.8%yoy and 32% progression to full year. </li>
<li>Then they announced a strategic partnership with a PE fund to grow, raise ROE, etc. The partnership goals look like a consult1999ing relationship. First goals are easy. Sell non-operating assets.</li>
<li>So this cash-rich company did what no cash-rich company should do, it sold long-dated warrants too cheaply and a zero premium long-dated. This is outrageous governance.</li>
</ul>


Cash-And-Securities-Rich (half of market cap in net cash+securities+real estate) Mitsubishi Pencil (7976 JP) announced Q1 earnings on 30 April. Up 68.8%yoy and 32% progression to full year. 
Then they announced a strategic partnership with a PE fund to grow, raise ROE, etc. The partnership goals look like a consult1999ing relationship. First goals are easy. Sell non-operating assets.
So this cash-rich company did what no cash-rich company should do, it sold long-dated warrants too cheaply and a zero premium long-dated. This is outrageous governance.


[Japan Event] The Mitsubishi Pencil (7976 JP) Governance Disaster

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Renesas Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11171:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)</a> is looking to raise approximately US$800m through an accelerated secondary block deal, via selling 50.71m shares (2.6% of TSO) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> stock. </li>
<li>The deal will be an easy one to digest at only three days of three month ADV.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$800m through an accelerated secondary block deal, via selling 50.71m shares (2.6% of TSO) of Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) stock. 
The deal will be an easy one to digest at only three days of three month ADV.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Renesas Electronics Block - Smaller than Recent Deals but Still Likely Well Flagged

AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$206m in its mixed follow-on offering. </li>
<li>The deal will be a large one to digest, at 129 days of three month ADV, 5.5% dilution and 12.2% of current mcap.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) is looking to raise around US$206m in its mixed follow-on offering. 
The deal will be a large one to digest, at 129 days of three month ADV, 5.5% dilution and 12.2% of current mcap.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


AZ Com Maruwa Placement - Mixed Feelings About the Mixed Offering

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 July.</li>
<li>There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.</li>
<li>We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).</li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) will be added to the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 July.
There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.
We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).


TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Japan

MITSUBISHI PENCIL CO., LTD. manufactures writing instruments, such as pencils and ball point pens.  The Company also produces office supplies, office automation equipment, crafts, and cosmetics.  Mitsubishi Pencil also has operations in the United States and in Europe.

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Mitsubishi Pencil (7976 JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Mitsubishi Pencil, China Resources Power, CK Hutchison, Guoco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan Event] The Mitsubishi Pencil (7976 JP) Governance Disaster

Cash-and-securities-rich Mitsubishi Pencil just issued a CB+warrants to Advantage Partners at ridiculously advantageous terms. Bad governance. I...

Travis Lundy

Renesas Electronics Block - Smaller than Recent Deals but Still Likely Well Flagged

Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$800m through an accelerated secondary block deal, via selling 50.71m shares...

Ethan Aw

AZ Com Maruwa Placement - Mixed Feelings About the Mixed Offering

AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) is looking to raise around US$206m in its mixed follow-on offering. In this note, we will talk about the deal...

Ethan Aw

TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Mercari will be added to the TPX at the close on 28 July. There are a lot of FFW changes that will result in one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a...

Brian Freitas

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