Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  US MLK Holidays - World markets directionless;  US Equity Futs flat; European Markets bid on Inflation peak;  BOJ decision to lead markets this week.</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat at 128.52 ; BOJ speculation dominates local headlines;  Kuroda heads to Davos = no fireworks? ;  Dec Machine Tools orders +1%YoY</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET:  Fast Retailing and Sustainability: Set to introduce a new repair service in its domestic stores.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  US MLK Holidays - World markets directionless;  US Equity Futs flat; European Markets bid on Inflation peak;  BOJ decision to lead markets this week.
JAPAN:  NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat at 128.52 ; BOJ speculation dominates local headlines;  Kuroda heads to Davos = no fireworks? ;  Dec Machine Tools orders +1%YoY
DAILY NUGGET:  Fast Retailing and Sustainability: Set to introduce a new repair service in its domestic stores.


Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

<ul>
<li>
<strong>Good Morning Japan:</strong>  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan.<strong> FOLLOW TO KEEP ABREAST.</strong>
</li>
<li>OVERSEAS:  Recession fears reassert,  10/11 SPX sectors in red; Wall street to cut staff; Pepsi cutting staff; Oil making lows; TSMC to lift Arizona Spend to $40bn</li>
<li>JAPAN: Futs indicate -0.8% for NKY cash; Amazing NKY recovery yesterday - we have no clue; Japan consumers spending; Decarbonization spend accelerating; DX too; Kyowa Kirin product failure</li>
</ul>



Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP ABREAST.

OVERSEAS:  Recession fears reassert,  10/11 SPX sectors in red; Wall street to cut staff; Pepsi cutting staff; Oil making lows; TSMC to lift Arizona Spend to $40bn
JAPAN: Futs indicate -0.8% for NKY cash; Amazing NKY recovery yesterday - we have no clue; Japan consumers spending; Decarbonization spend accelerating; DX too; Kyowa Kirin product failure


Good Morning Japan | Recession Fears (Again)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.</li>
<li>Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.
Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.


Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<h3>What’s Original?</h3>
<p>In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.</p>

What’s Original?
In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these policies and companies that are likely to benefit.

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

<div style="text-align: center;"><strong>• NET GAIN • </strong></div><div><div class="content-caption">
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/590/original/2021-02-19_07-20-52.png?1613686864" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189590"></figure><p></p></section> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><div>
<p><strong>NET GAIN</strong> - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of  Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8%  higher than three months ago - an increase of  ¥5.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward earnings multiple has declined to 28 times following a 10% increase in total market value (ex REITs). The increase in forecast operating income is a more modest 10.2% reflecting the degree of previously-projected COVID-related extraordinary losses.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/591/original/2021-02-19_07-29-59.png?1613687413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189591"></figure></section><p><strong>TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (TTM)</strong> - Trailing revenues and operating profits are still falling by 9.9% and 26.3%, respectively; however, operating income rose by 4.1% quarter-on-quarter as margins improved by 30 basis points. Despite a reasonable effort at cost-cutting, aggregate operating margins are still  228 bps below their mid-2018 peak, and it will take at least another eight quarters for that gap to be closed.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/595/original/2021-02-19_07-38-34.png?1613687927" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189595"></figure></section><p><strong>FORECASTS</strong> - The majority of companies are forecasting for the year ending next month. Despite no change in the aggregate revenue forecast, the outlook for operating income increased by ¥3.7 trillion during the quarter resulting in a 50 bps operating margin uplift. </p>
</div><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/596/original/2021-02-19_07-40-09.png?1613688021" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189596"></figure><hr></section><p><strong>POSITIVE MOMENTUM</strong> - Both our forward-looking Results Score and Results &amp; Revision Score have returned to the positive after less than one year. Whether this merits a new thirty-year high in TOPIX is, however, a moot point. We would note that the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions for December turned down for the first time since April 2020.   </p></section><div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/597/original/2021-02-19_08-02-24.png?1613689355" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189597"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/694/original/2021-02-19_16-02-06.png?1613718138" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189694"></figure><hr></section><p><strong>SECTOR BREAKDOWN</strong> - The leading sectors in terms of one-month change in Results &amp; Revision Score are <strong>Other Commercial Products</strong>, <strong>Autos</strong>,<strong> Other Consumer Products</strong>, <strong>Metals</strong>, and <strong>Building Materials.</strong> The RRS 'losers' are <strong>Utilities</strong>, <strong>Internet Content &amp; Services</strong>, <strong>Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco,</strong><strong>Retail</strong>, and <strong>Healthcare</strong>.  </p>
</div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/700/original/2021-02-19_16-05-32.png?1613718344" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189700"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/701/original/2021-02-19_16-06-12.png?1613718383" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189701"></figure></section><hr>
</div><section></section><div><div>
<p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes.</p>
<hr>
<p></p>
</div></div>

• NET GAIN • 
 Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
NET GAIN - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of  Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8%  higher than three months ago - an increase of  ¥5.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward earnings multiple has declined to 28 times following a 10% increase in total market value (ex REITs). The increase in forecast operating income is a more modest 10.2% reflecting the degree of previously-projected COVID-related extraordinary losses.
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (TTM) - Trailing revenues and operating profits are still falling by 9.9% and 26.3%, respectively; however, operating income rose by 4.1% quarter-on-quarter as margins improved by 30 basis points. Despite a reasonable effort at cost-cutting, aggregate operating margins are still  228 bps below their mid-2018 peak, and it will take at least another eight quarters for that gap to be closed.
FORECASTS - The majority of companies are forecasting for the year ending next month. Despite no change in the aggregate revenue forecast, the outlook for operating income increased by ¥3.7 trillion during the quarter resulting in a 50 bps operating margin uplift. 
POSITIVE MOMENTUM - Both our forward-looking Results Score and Results &amp; Revision Score have returned to the positive after less than one year. Whether this merits a new thirty-year high in TOPIX is, however, a moot point. We would note that the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions for December turned down for the first time since April 2020.   
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The leading sectors in terms of one-month change in Results &amp; Revision Score are Other Commercial Products, Autos, Other Consumer Products, Metals, and Building Materials. The RRS 'losers' are Utilities, Internet Content &amp; Services, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco,Retail, and Healthcare.  



In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes.




🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Winter 2020 Results & Revisions Review

Japan

MITSUI & CO., LTD. is a general trading company.  The Company has operating groups including Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Foods, Energy, Textiles, and General Merchandise.  Mitsui also operates real estate and overseas development projects.

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Mitsui & Co Ltd (8031 JP)

Good Morning Japan |US Off = Directionless; BOJ in Focus +2trn JGB Buying; Kuroda off to Davos

NKY Futures +0.2% vs Cash ; USDJPY flat; BOJ speculation dominates as Kuroda heads to Davos ; Dec Machine Tools +1%YoY. Global stealth rally...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | Recession Fears (Again)

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP...

Mark Chadwick

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

Kishida as Prime Minister: The Path Ahead

In this original, we have discussed some of the key aspects highlighted in Kishida’s policy statements along with the current status of these...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Winter 2020 Results & Revisions Review

NET GAIN - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8% higher than three months ago - an...

Campbell Gunn

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52-week Range

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